NCAA Basketball Best Bets for February 16: How Does A Three-Team Parlay Sound?
-
Rainman M.
- February 16, 2025
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NCAAB odds for today’s college basketball action. Four games interest me as worth investing in: Michigan vs. Ohio State, Creighton vs. St. John’s, Iowa vs. Maryland and Louisville vs. Notre Dame.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in Ohio State and in a St. John’s-Maryland-Louisville money-line parlay.
Michigan Wolverines vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Sunday, February 16, 2025 – 01:00 PM ET at Value City Arena
Michigan’s Defense
Under head coach Dusty May, the Wolverines focus on deterring shots at the basket and three-point attempts.
It is tough to score on them at the basket because they start two seven-footers on defense. Meanwhile, they rank in about the top-third percentile at limiting three-point attempts. They push opponents to attempt mid-range jump shots.
Ohio State’s Offense
Ohio State’s offense matches up well against the Wolverines because Michigan’s defense endeavor to push the opposing offense into mid-range jump shot attempts plays into the strengths of Ohio State’s scorers.
On offense, the Buckeyes are not built to score at the basket. They don’t have bigs who are inclined to bang and bully their way inside. Likewise, they rank 242nd in three-point attempts. They want to attempt mid-range jumpers.
The scorers on whom they depend the most certainly possess this desire. Bruce Thornton, for example, scored 20 points against Illinois and 21 points against Wisconsin. Both defenses allow mid-range jumpers at one of the highest rates.
His enhanced outlook against defenses that allow a lot of mid-range shot attempts likewise explains his success against Kentucky and Maryland, against which he scored 30 and 31 points, respectively. Thornton’s teammate Devin Royal and sharpshooter John Mobley Jr., among others, reportedly share Thornton’s comfort in the midrange.
Michigan’s Offense
It’s obvious from watching Michigan play that it places a strong emphasis on spacing.
Spacing can be important for two reasons:
- It can create more driving space inside the arc.
- It makes it harder for help defenders to arrive.
Compare Michigan with Nebraska. Nebraska’s emphasis on spacing, like Michigan’s, is promoted by the presence of bigs who can shoot the three. But the Cornhuskers differ from Michigan in that they primarily want to attack inside. Conversely, Michigan attempts three-pointers at the 70th-highest rate.
Nebraska thrived against Ohio State’s defense because the Buckeyes are very extended on defense, which allowed Nebraska to dominate the interior. Conversely, the Buckeyes’ extended defense operated well against a Wisconsin offense that likewise emphasizes spacing with bigs who can shoot but that, like Michigan, focuses on attempting three-pointers.
I like Ohio State’s defense tonight because video footage of its success against Wisconsin, whom it held to 70 points in Madison, illustrates its comfort defending against what Michigan wants to do on offense.
Stats support my point as well: the Buckeyes rank ninth-best at limiting three-point efficiency, giving them a superb outlook against Michigan’s three-point-reliant offense.
Takeaway
Michigan wants to allow mid-range jump shots, but Ohio State wants to take them. The Wolverines want to attempt three-pointers, but Ohio State will diminish their efficiency.
On both offense and defense, the Buckeyes match up ideally against Michigan.
NCAAB Pick: Ohio State -2.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Creighton Bluejays vs. St. John’s Red Storm
Sunday, February 16, 2025 – 03:00 PM ET at Madison Square Garden
Creighton’s History at MSG
In its last game at the Madison Square Garden, Creighton lost 80-66. This result is in line with Creighton’s history at this venue.
Against St. John’s specifically, the Bluejays are 0-2 at MSG.
Matchup Angle
Away from home, Creighton struggles with teams that do a good job of forcing turnovers. For example, they lost by 18 against San Diego State on a neutral court. They also lost by 24 against a generally weaker Georgetown team.
At home, they beat the Red Storm by a single point.
Pressure from St. John’s
The Red Storm defense will be at its best at home, where it is undefeated this season.
Their length and intensity make them one of the best teams at applying pressure and forcing turnovers, positioning them well against a Creighton team that ranks 241st at limiting its rate of turnovers on offense. While the Johnnies might be less ideally efficient on offense, it doesn’t matter, because they use steals and turnovers to attempt more shots.
Their pressure defense will succeed at holding Creighton to below 60 points by keeping the Bluejays from attempting shots and inhibiting them from finding a rhythm. Their pressure defense will also ensure that they score enough points to win.
Kadary Richmond
Since scoring nine points in the first game at Creighton, Kadary Richmond has improved his play, as evident in his scoring totals and offensive rating.
Richmond excels at driving to the basket, where he’ll succeed when mobile teammate Zuby Ejiofor draws his big and slower Creighton counterpart, center Ryan Kalkbrenner, away from the basket.
The general comfort of St. John’s players to shoot mid-range jumpers will be useful also when Kalkbrenner remains near the basket on defense.
Parlay Leg 1: St. John’s ML (-255) at BetOnline
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Maryland Terrapins
Sunday, February 16, 2025 – 05:00 PM ET at XFINITY Center
Maryland’s Offense
Iowa consistently allows very high point totals to top Big Ten offenses, especially on the road. The Hawkeyes allowed 85 points against a Michigan offense that ranks below Maryland’s in efficiency and 116 points at Wisconsin.
They do a terrible job both of guarding the perimeter and of guarding the interior, positioning them as negatively as possible against a Maryland offense that has efficient scoring bigs like Julian Reese and two players in Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Selton Miguel, who convert over 40 percent of their three-point attempts on high volume.
Iowa lacks the size to contain both of Maryland’s dangerous bigs — Reese and similarly efficient inside scorer Derik Queen. The Hawkeyes will have to devote extra resources to limiting that pair, but then Maryland’s guards will have an even easier time thriving.
Maryland’s Defense
Maryland is the only team here who will defend: the Terrapins held Wisconsin and Illinois, for example, to 70 and 68 points, respectively, at home, where they are undefeated in Big Ten play.
Iowa has one road win all year, as they lack the same shot-making quality away from home without injured center Owen Freeman. Reese, as evident in his block rate, is a great defender who will limit Iowa’s top frontcourt option, Payton Sandfort.
Maryland is also tough to score threes on, as it allows a low rate of three-point attempts and of three-point makes.
Parlay Leg 2: Maryland ML at BetOnline
Louisville Cardinals vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Sunday, February 16, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Purcell Pavilion
Why Louisville Will Win
The one ACC team, besides Duke, that defeated Louisville was a Georgia Tech team that is hard to score on inside because it features a well-reputed, versatile defender in Baye Ndongo.
Notre Dame is nothing like Georgia Tech. The Fighting Irish have one of the weakest interior defenses. They just allowed a Boston College offense that is one of the worst at scoring inside the arc to convert two-point makes with a frequency of 56.5%. A similar story can be told for their loss at home last Saturday against a Virginia Tech team that failed to convert 20% of its three-point attempts.
A Louisville team that ranks 19th in two-point percentage will thrive. It has so many players who operate well in space, frequently forcing defenses to double-team them before finding teammates to drive inside.
They’ll stretch defenses out with their well-spaced three-point shooting threats like Reyne Smith with his 40-percent three-point conversion rate, making it easier for them to operate inside, and frequently score over the top of shorter guards and wings like those of Notre Dame.
On defense, they regularly hold teams to 65-70 points. They have a pesky on-ball defender in Chucky Hepburn (who ranks 46th in steal rate) to limit Notre Dame’s point guard Markus Burton. Burton, easily Notre Dame’s top shot-taker, will also have to deal with Terrence Edwards, who has six inches on him.
Notre Dame lacks efficient inside scorers and desperately needs Burton’s three-point shooting to help it remain in cover range, but Burton’s task will be tough today.
Parlay Leg 3: Louisville ML at BetOnline
The Parlay
- Parlay St. John’s ML (-255)
- Maryland ML (-750)
- Louisville ML (-275)
NCAAB Pick: Three-Legged Parlay (+115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
