NCAA Basketball Best Bets for January 18: Big Trend Favors Syracuse
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Rainman M.
- January 18, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Syracuse +3 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Taking a look at the betting odds for Saturday’s college basketball action, I am interested in betting on three games: Davidson vs. Rhode Island, Alabama vs. Kentucky, and Notre Dame vs. Syracuse.
Let’s jump in!
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Saturday, January 18, 2025 – 12:00 PM ET at Rupp Arena
Kentucky Loves to Go Fast
Oddsmakers do not fully respect Kentucky because it has suffered tough losses.
Yes, losing by 20 points to Ohio State looks very bad. Losing to Clemson and Georgia likewise looks bad. But the thing about those games is that they were played at a slower tempo because Kentucky was facing an opponent that lacked its disposition to run. But, even away from home, the Wildcats beat a tough Gonzaga team that likewise wants up-and-down games.
They also beat, by six, a Florida team that similarly plays fast. Both Gonzaga and Florida are undeniably better than the teams that defeated Kentucky, but Kentucky beat Gonzaga and Florida because it is simply the best team in a track meet. Alabama likes a track meet-style game, so it matches up poorly against Kentucky.
The Edge on Defense
There can’t be a doubt that Kentucky will score: the Wildcats rank number two in offensive efficiency. They scored 106 points in that track meet with Florida even though the Gators have one of the best defenses.
Kentucky will win any track meet, but point guard Lamont Butler also gives its defense an added edge in this matchup. Butler is an excellent defender who will repeatedly eliminate the other team’s point guard and boasts a great steal rate.
Alabama is in a bad spot because its offense depends heavily on the success of its point guard, Mark Sears. Sears is his team’s top shot-taker, so it’s not a coincidence that he struggled to score in each of his team’s losses. Butler will take away Sears, leaving Alabama without sufficient scoring power to remain competitive in Kentucky’s venue.
Takeaway
Folks are afraid of going against Alabama when it is coming off a loss. But this is superstition. Last year, Alabama had a three-game losing streak and a two-game losing streak. It is capable of losing multiple games in a row.
Plus, when it ended losing streaks, how often did it do so by beating a team like Kentucky? Kentucky is the best team in a track meet-style game, which is what we’ll see here.
NCAAB Pick: Kentucky -1.5 (-115) at BetOnline
Davidson Wildcats vs. Rhode Island Rams
Saturday, January 18, 2025 – 02:00 PM ET at Thomas M. Ryan Center
Davidson’s Offense
Davidson’s offense prioritizes motion and spacing. You will commonly see four guys positioned behind the arc. They will try to remain distant from each other because distance between individual players hinders the opposing team’s help defense. Moreover, they will move freely — within the structure imposed by their head coach’s scheme — in order to increase open shot attempts.
Their priorities, motion and spacing especially behind the arc, help structure an offense that strongly emphasizes three-point shooting.
Overall, Davidson has the 89th-highest point distribution from behind the arc. Given its reliance on scoring from deep, it is crucial for the opposing team’s defense to succeed at guarding the perimeter. Hence, in Davidson’s last conference loss, it shot below its average from behind the arc and was upset by La Salle.
Rhode Island’s Perimeter Defense
On defense, Rhode Island practically never runs zone — it is a very heavy man-to-man team. This doesn’t mean that Rhode Island players will incessantly stay glued to their man.
When a guy like Providence power forward Bryce Hopkins uses a screen, his defender will go under the screen because he is justified in not being primarily worried about Hopkins shooting a three.
That being said, Rams defenders are very good about staying glued to potential shooters behind the arc. As you can see with 6:15 left in the first half of their game against Providence, Rhode Island will sometimes allow a single defender to protect the basket against a player posting up while the other four defenders focus on guarding the perimeter.
This focus on guarding the perimeter helps explain why Rhode Island is the second-best team at limiting opposing three-point percentage. With their strong perimeter defense, the Rams were able to beat and cover the 2.5-point spread against a Yale team that is normally top-caliber from behind the arc.
Outlook for Rhode Island’s Offense
Rhode Island attempts the highest percentage of shots at the basket. The Rams rarely attempt mid-range shots and, for good reason, are averse to attempting three-pointers.
Their offense’s outlook on Saturday could not be worse against a Davidson defense that ranks number one both at limiting field goal attempts at the rim and at limiting field goal conversion rate at the basket. Davidson’s defense likes to swarm the paint with multiple guys, compelling opposing ball-handlers to pass the ball out to a teammate behind the arc, as you can see at the 11:20 mark in the first half of its game against George Mason.
Rhode Island will struggle to score at all in this game because it lacks the means to punish Davidson for defeating its rim-attacking aspiration.
Takeaway
Both teams will struggle to score: Davidson’s three-point-oriented attack will be stifled by Rhode Island’s perimeter defense. On offense, the Rams will focus on attacking the basket, but the Wildcats’ interior defense will be too compact.
NCAAB Pick: Under 148 (-105) at BetOnline
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Syracuse Orange
Saturday, January 18, 2025 – 04:00 PM ET at JMA Wireless Dome
Spot Play
This is a must-bet spot for the Orange. Notre Dame has been a bad road team in conference play, as it is 0-3 so far against ACC teams in their venue, including an 11-point loss at Georgia Tech.
But the main reason to bet on Syracuse is that it is coming off a loss at home. Under head coach Adrian Autry, the Orange are 4-0 at home when they lost their last home game.
This trend is legitimate, as NC State and even North Carolina have been victimized by it.
NCAAB Pick: Syracuse +3 (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
