NCAA Basketball Best Bets for January 3: Creighton Takes Crack at Marquette Upset
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Willie Bee
- January 3, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Creighton +9.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We’ve reached that point in the season when Friday night college basketball betting cards get awfully short, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t crucial matchups with plenty of intrigue and eventual consequences come Selection Sunday (March 16th).
That’s certainly the case on the first Friday of the new year when a couple of contests in the Big Ten and Big East have our full attention.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Friday, January 03, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Kohl Center
The early-December warmup to the Big Ten schedule produced 12 teams with 1-1 league marks, Iowa among them. The Hawkeyes would love to get a second win Friday evening in Madison where the Wisconsin Badgers are looking to earn their first conference dubya.
The 175th meeting finds both sides with identical 10-3 records, and will be televised by FS1. Top-rated sportsbooks have Wisconsin favored by 5.5 with 162.5 for the total.
Hawkeyes Among the Nation’s Best Shooters
Iowa had been idle for more than a week before hitting the floor with a 112-70 win over New Hampshire a few days ago. It was a wire-to-wire win for Fran McCaffrey’s crew as the Hawkeyes shot nearly 61% to easily cover a huge spread.
Certainly, we can’t expect any team to make good on a regular basis of more than 60% of its field goals, but the Hawkeyes have shot well all season to rank fifth in the nation (51.1%). They are also among the leaders in 3-point shooting, currently sinking 38.1% from behind the arc.
Greg Gard’s gang has not shot well overall, both inside and outside the arc, but the Badgers make up for that shortcoming by protecting the rock – 9.6 turnovers/game, 16th fewest in the country – and frustrating their opponents’ shooting.
It’s been nearly two weeks since they last played, and while the December 22nd matchup was a decisive 76-53 win over Detroit Mercy, it wasn’t enough to cover a 29-point spread. The Badgers were awful from long-range, making just 7-of-35 of their 3-point efforts.
Badgers Lead Series 89-86
Last year’s two meetings were split with each team winning at home while covering as a small favorite. The contest in Madison saw the Badgers break open a tight affair midway through the second half and pull away from the Hawkeyes for an 83-72 victory.
Iowa’s follow-up win about six weeks later halted a 4-game Wisconsin win streak in the rivalry, and both contests got past the NCAAB odds to leave ‘over’ bettors 4-1 in the past five matchups.
It comes down to it being a bloated total for me, even given the series trend and the fact both teams are ‘over’ winners this year.
NCAAB Pick: Iowa/Wisconsin Under 162.5 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Creighton Bluejays vs. Marquette Golden Eagles
Friday, January 03, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum
After the Hawkeyes and Badgers resolve their differences, FS1 will also televise the Big East clash in Milwaukee between the Creighton Bluejays and Marquette Golden Eagles.
Shaka Smart has the Golden Eagles off to a 3-0 start in Big East play, while Greg McDermott’s Bluejays are just a game behind in the first of two meetings. Heritage Sports is charging 9.5 points to play Marquette with 148 for the total.
‘Jays Seeking 1st Road Win of Campaign
Knotted with the Friars at 10 apiece a little more than 3 minutes into a New Year’s Eve matchup in Providence, the Golden Eagles went on an 18-0 run and cruised to a 78-50 final. Marquette easily covered the road chalk to snap a 3-game skid against the spread.
Much of the credit for that victory goes to the Golden Eagles, no doubt, but the Friars were also their own worst enemy committing 22 turnovers and shooting just 34% (17-50) from the field on their own floor.
Creighton also had to work on New Year’s Eve with a mid-afternoon home matchup against St. John’s, and the Bluejays fended off a late challenge by the Red Storm in a 57-56 nailbiter.
St. John’s appeared ready to extend its 6-game win streak with an 11-point lead in the first half before Ryan Kalkbrenner – 16 pts, 9 reb, 5 blk – and the Bluejays found their groove. That contest closed as a pick, giving Creighton backers their fifth winning ticket in the last six wagers.
100th Meeting in Series
The two meetings between the Bluejays and Golden Eagles a year ago were similar to the Iowa-Wisconsin matchups, beginning with each team winning and covering as chalk on their home floors. Totals split the marks, and the ‘under’ is 6-2 in the last 8 games.
Marquette fended off a late challenge by Creighton to win the contest played in Milwaukee, 72-67. The Golden Eagles are up 59-40 in the rivalry, that dates to 1923, but the Bluejays have a 12-10 advantage as Big East foes.
Maybe the home crowd gives the Golden Eagle a double-digit edge in the end, but the Bluejays and the points are my pick.
NCAAB Pick: Creighton +9.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
