NCAA Basketball Best Bets for March 7: Dayton Covers at VCU
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Willie Bee
- March 7, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Dayton +8.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The Atlantic 10 and Big Ten don’t begin their conference tournaments until next week, but games from both leagues on Friday’s college basketball betting card should have that good old-fashioned conference tournament feel to them.
Dayton Flyers vs. Virginia Commonwealth Rams
Friday, March 07, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Siegel Center
Exactly one month after meeting for the first time this season, Dayton and VCU tangle once again, with the Rams hoping to wrap up full honors as the Atlantic 10 champs.
Heritage Sports is pushing VCU as 8.5-point chalk, with a little extra juice on Dayton’s underdog price, and most shops have set the scoreboard target at 142.
Underdogs Cover 6 of Last 8 Meetings
The Flyers and Rams collided on in Dayton on February 7th in a crucial contest, and VCU left town with a 73-68 triumph. The game danced around a pick line before most shops closed with the Rams -1 on their NCAAB odds boards.
The game lived up to the hype with the score never getting out of hand either way. Virginia Commonwealth built a 7-point lead at one point in the first half before taking a 31-28 lead into the locker room. However, Dayton battled back and enjoyed a 5-point lead with 5 minutes remaining before the Rams caught fire to win and cover.
It was the third time VCU got the win in the last four meetings, and the Rams covered the one game they lost in that span. The relatively new rivalry finds VCU holding a solid 15-7 lead.
Potential A10 Tourney Preview
Someone is going to have to beat VCU in DC next week at the conference tourney for the A10 to have more than one team in March Madness’s initial Field of 68. The Rams have already clinched the top seed, with George Mason inked in at No. 2.
Dayton can clinch the No. 3 seed with a win over VCU, and should be motivated by the fact a loss could drop the Flyers to No. 5 in a bracket where the top 4 get a bye into the quarters. Anthony Grant’s group has won the last three times out, and despite being a lousy cover overall, the Flyers have cashed three of their last four on the road.
A regular season title is special, but Ryan Odom really has no reason to push his guys in this one, especially since the teams could meet a third time next week. Take the points.
NCAAB Pick: Dayton +8.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Friday, March 07, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at State Farm Center
Not that long ago, this collision looked like it might really mean something as far as the regular season goes. It’s still an important game for both Purdue and Illinois, just not the marquee matchup we expected before the Boilermakers and Fighting Illini struggled in February.
It’s still a big enough affair for the big FOX to televise the 199th meeting between rivals who sit less than 100 miles apart, and top-rated sportsbooks have Illinois favored by 3.5-4.5.
Boilers Have Won Last 5 Meetings
Considering it’s the only meeting of the regular season, it’s strange to see it taking place at the very end of the fixture. Purdue swept the two matchups a season ago and has won the last five contests to build a 107-91 lead in the series.
Last year’s battle in Champaign also took place near the end of the schedule, and Zach Edey’s 28 helped the Boilermakers to a 77-71 road win. Purdue was a tiny underdog in that affair, and made the Boilermakers the right college basketball pick for the fourth time in six matchups.
Last 4 Meetings in Champaign Go ‘Over’
The Boilermakers have put their ill-timed 4-game losing streak behind them by winning the last two times out, most recently a 100-71 rout of Rutgers on Tuesday. Purdue closed the first half on a 15-7 run to take control, then dominated the Scarlet Knights in the second stanza.
Matt Painter’s club is tied with Maryland and Wisconsin for fourth place in the Big Ten, the reward for a top 4 finish being a bye into the quarterfinals of the conference tourney. If that trio is knotted in the end, Purdue would be relegated to fifth place by the tiebreakers.
Illinois has also regrouped with a pair of wins following a skid. The Fighting Illini enjoyed their trip to Ann Arbor last Sunday by bringing home an easy 93-73 rout of Michigan. Oddsmakers were giving Illinois 3 in the contest, and Tre White’s double-double (19 pts, 11 reb) keyed the upset.
Defense ain’t exactly the strong suit for either side, but this total is still a bit lofty and makes for a good time to buy the low side of the scoreboard.
NCAAB Pick: Purdue/Illinois Under 159.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
