NCAA Basketball Best Bets for November 16: Yale Is an A+ Wager
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Rainman M.
- November 16, 2024
Top NCAAB Pick: Yale +4.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NCAAB odds for Saturday’s college basketball action.
Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Notre Dame vs. Georgetown and Yale vs. Minnesota. For your best bets, I will recommend investing in Notre Dame and Yale.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Georgetown Hoyas
Saturday, November 16, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena
Georgetown’s Problem
It might not seem like Georgetown has serious problems, because it is undefeated. But the Hoyas are undefeated because they’ve faced soft competition that hasn’t taken advantage of their weaknesses. Specifically, their offense relies too heavily on center Thomas Sorber.
Sorber is characteristically a strong and physical presence inside. In his team’s last game, against Fairfield, he was able to impose his physicality on what was a small and weak opponent by, for example, achieving offensive rebounds and put-backs.
What is going to happen is that this reliance on Sorber will be punished when the Hoyas face a tough opponent. That tough opponent is going to be Notre Dame, which, among other things, has more size and strength inside than a team like Fairfield does.
Because Sorber cannot win games by himself, Georgetown will need good backcourt play to help him out.
Backcourt Deficiencies
Georgetown’s guards have trouble with both shot-making and distributing. Their shot-making issue is evident in the fact that they rank 290th in three-point percentage. Georgetown’s ranking in assists-per-field goals made is slightly better.
The team lacks a true point guard who can distribute the ball efficiently. Sure, Malik Mack can collect assists. However, his turnover rate is higher than his assist rate, which means that he is struggling to make the mental decisions and, physically, the passes that are part of his job as the point guard.
Between him and fellow guard Jayden Epps, there have been 14 turnovers so far. This backcourt is struggling to generate flow, rhythm, and favorable shooting opportunities.
Concerned About Notre Dame?
On the other side, are we concerned about the Fighting Irish because they allowed 77 points to Buffalo?
Buffalo scored as many points as it did because it made eleven threes. Notre Dame, on defense, showed a dedication to protecting the paint. Its defenders collapsed willingly inside in order to protect the basket. Consequently, Buffalo was able to collect wide-open looks behind the arc.
I am sure that Georgetown will get some good looks behind the arc. But its offense is in the worst spot when it faces a defense that is willing to concede favorable three-point shooting opportunities as long as it can protect the basket. Notre Dame is allowing three-point attempts at one of the nation’s highest rates, but Georgetown lacks the ability to take advantage.
Notre Dame’s Well-Rounded Offense
I like Notre Dame’s offense because it is well-rounded and therefore more difficult for a defense to stop. It can score efficiently inside but also outside the arc.
The Fighting Irish also have a legitimate point guard in Markus Burton to help facilitate things. His assist-to-turnover ratio is better than three-to-one. His Georgetown counterpart, Mack, was targeted repeatedly by Fairfield’s offense in the Hoyas’ last game.
Burton will be unchallenged in his role as distributor, and, consequently, the whole offense is going to have greater flow and rhythm than Georgetown’s.
Partly due to the lack of length in its guards, Georgetown’s perimeter defense has been particularly porous. Expect guys like Braeden Shrewsberry to continue their hot shooting, complementing Notre Dame’s slew of low-post scorers.
Takeaway
Georgetown’s one-dimensional offense is too easy for a stronger team like Notre Dame to stop. The Hoyas are also too porous defensively to contain Notre Dame’s mixture of shooting and low-post scoring.
The Fighting Irish will exhibit an in-rhythm offense that will outscore Georgetown’s.
NCAAB Pick: Notre Dame PK (-110) at BetOnline
Yale Bulldogs vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Saturday, November 16, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at Williams Arena
Yale’s Potent Offense
I am impressed by a Yale offense that has repeatedly proven to be capable of amassing high-scoring totals. For example, the Bulldogs scored 84 points in an eight-point loss at Purdue even though Purdue enters this season having won two consecutive Big Ten titles and is predicted to win a third.
On offense, Yale is able to position all five of its players behind the arc, which is optimal for spacing. It will have five guys on the court who can shoot three-pointers. Their positioning maximizes operating room for them inside the arc, which allowed them to score a lot of points in the paint against Purdue.
It might seem strange that Yale scored more points against Purdue than it did in its previous game against Illinois-Chicago. But its performance against the latter opponent was anomalous because it was sloppier.
With better off-ball movement from its players, Yale is able to make more secure passes that are unlikelier to lead to turnovers and likelier to lead to favorable scoring opportunities. This is now a crisper offense that is gearing up and that, I contend, Minnesota’s will not keep pace with.
Minnesota’s Guard Problem
In Minnesota’s last game, a loss to North Texas, North Texas’ coaching staff showed future teams how to limit the Golden Gophers’ offense.
The key is to double-team their starting center, Dawson Garcia, and force their guards to score. Garcia is even easy to double-team because he isn’t one to pass well out of a double — he has all of three assists in two games.
With their guards, in head coach Ben Johnson’s system, Minnesota’s offense is often stagnant, as evident in its 54-51 loss at home to North Texas in its last game. The individual skill levels of their guards and the quality of the team’s offensive sets are both insufficient.
Their whole offense moves slowly. The passes are predictable, and their guards struggle to beat their defenders one-on-one in order to score. There is a lot of wasted movement and pointless dribbling. As a result, North Texas’ defense was all over Minnesota’s guards, who failed to inject flow into their offense.
Yale certainly has the defenders to achieve the outcome that North Texas’ did. Point guard Bez Mbeng, for example, is a two-time Ivy League Defensive Player of the Year partly because of the pressure that he can apply on the ball. He’ll make ball-handlers uncomfortable.
With their skill, as well as their length, the Bulldogs will stymy Minnesota’s hapless backcourt, which won’t take advantage of the extra attention that Yale will devote to limiting Garcia inside.
Takeaway
Yale is the only team in this game that can be trusted to score a lot of points, and yet it also features strong on-ball defending that will continue to expose Minnesota’s deficient backcourt, which makes the Golden Gophers too easy to stop because they rely exceedingly on Garcia inside.
NCAAB Pick: Yale +4.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
