NCAA Basketball Best Bets for November 30: Oregon State Knows the Winning Recipe
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Rainman M.
- November 30, 2024
Top NCAAB Pick: Oregon State -10 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NCAAB odds for Saturday’s college basketball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: San Diego State vs. Houston and UC Davis vs. Oregon State.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in San Diego State and Oregon State.
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Houston Cougars Odds
Saturday, November 30, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at MGM Grand Garden Arena
Houston’s Losses
It is not a coincidence that Houston’s two losses have come against the two teams that they’ve faced that have the strongest offense — both Auburn and Alabama rank top-three in three-point efficiency, which is higher than any of the Cougars’ other opponents.
Now, the seemingly obvious argument against San Diego State is that the Aztecs aren’t as good on offense as Auburn and Alabama.
There are two responses to make to this argument:
- We know that San Diego State isn’t, objectively speaking, as good offensively as Auburn and Alabama. This is trivially true and is accounted for in the spread — it explains why the spread is so big.
- The respect in which the Aztecs are not as strong offensively as Auburn and Alabama is irrelevant. In other words, yes, they are weaker offensively but in a sense that does not matter.
My argument is that the Aztecs have the pieces on offense to defeat Houston, just like Auburn and Alabama did.
The Importance of Guards
When Houston lost its two games, the highest scorer for its opponent was a guard:
- In Auburn’s win over Houston, point guard Tahaad Pettiford was the Tigers’ leading scorer.
- When Alabama defeated Houston, combo guard Mark Sears was the Crimson Tide’s leading scorer.
The offensive ability of guards matters when playing Houston because it is relatively weak when defending against guards. LJ Cryer has never been known to be a particularly great defender. His strengths are on offense.
By reading detailed reports about these players, you will find that the same applies to Milos Uzan, whose low steal rate is as high as it is because he thrived against lowly Jackson State.
Cougars backers will want to cite Houston’s high ranking on defense, but its defense is as strong as it is because of its shot-blockers in the frontcourt. A team that relies on power forwards and centers for its scoring will be disadvantaged when facing Houston. However, San Diego State is not such a team.
San Diego State’s Guards
The Aztecs’ top three shot-takers are all guards. These are Nick Boyd, BJ Davis and Wayne McKinney. Boyd and Davis are especially worth highlighting.
Boyd is a strong finisher at the rim where he finishes through contact and draws over four fouls per 40 minutes. He’ll score effectively as a ball-handler, sometimes off a screen, but he’s also a reliable spot-up shooter, as evident in his high three-point conversion rate.
Davis is even more efficient inside the arc, and he is a strong three-point shooter. Video footage displays his shiftiness, which is a trait that guards have frequently made use of to blow by Houston defenders. Davis is a great ball-handler.
San Diego State has the guard play to thrive against Houston’s defense.
San Diego State’s Top-Caliber Defense
The Aztecs have one of the nation’s best defenses. They rank tenth in defensive efficiency.
Under Brian Dutcher, defense is a calling card for this team, which is why it’s really hard not to want to bet on the Aztecs when you like them to score a lot.
Among other things, San Diego State is very tough to score on inside because its help defenders do not provide help for the on-ball defender in a way that leaves them vulnerable. Their help defense benefits from being lengthy — the Aztecs rank 71st in height —, which makes it easier for them to take away driving space while remaining sufficiently locked in on the player that they are guarding.
San Diego State’s one weakness has been defending without fouling. The two teams that defeated the Aztecs won the free-throw battle by a large margin.
I like San Diego State’s defense in this matchup because the Cougars are not good at getting to the foul line. Despite facing many awful teams, including teams like Hofstra that foul a ton, they rank 247th at attempting free throws.
Takeaway
San Diego State will flourish offensively with its collection of dangerous guards while its elite defense’s weakness will not be taken advantage of by Houston’s offense.
NCAAB Pick: San Diego State +11.5 (-110) at BetOnline
UC Davis Aggies vs. Oregon State Beavers Odds
Saturday, November 30, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Gill Coliseum
UC Davis Has Been Figured Out
The Aggies are coming off a blowout loss to Norfolk State — Norfolk State won by 21 points — in which their offense was exposed. Oregon State’s head coach is going to watch this game to see what Norfolk State did.
It’s pretty obvious even for a regular guy like me, who is not a head coach, to see. UC Davis relies heavily on TY Johnson. In fact, as measured by possession rate and shot rate, no team relies on a single player more than UC Davis relies on Johnson.
On defense, Norfolk State locked in on Johnson. They clogged the paint in order to take away his driving space and used collective means to frustrate him in order to force him to turn the ball over.
The Beavers Can Do The Same
It’s not like Norfolk State has a good defense — it ranks about 80 spots below Oregon State’s defense in terms of defensive efficiency. So, the Beavers can do at least as good of a job.
In fact, they already did such a job before. On November 15, they blew out a Cal State Fullerton team — by 19 points — that relies very extensively on a single player, Donovan Oday. Oday had all of eight points against the Beavers. TY Johnson is a wing, and Oregon State has lengthy wings to bother him and clog up the paint.
Clogging The Paint
Oregon State, in addition to having lengthy wings — such as 6’5 shooting guard Nate Kingz — also has a well-sized front court. The Beavers are well-built to clog the paint.
They allow, on the other hand, a lot of three-point attempts. However, this is precisely what teams facing UC Davis want to do — they want to allow a lot of three-point attempts. They will even help off UC Davis shooters, such as Sione Lose, in order to beg them to shoot.
The Aggies are failing to complete even 30 percent of their three-point attempts.
Oregon State’s Offense
UC Davis regularly allows 75-80 points per game, including 75 points to low-caliber Idaho.
The Beavers have a well-rounded offense that features efficient inside scorers and reliable three-point shooters. Parsa Fallah, for example, has amazing footwork that makes him very hard to defend around the basket.
As a whole, Oregon State’s offense features a lot of movement, with guys slipping screens to get to the hoop or finding ways to get open from behind the arc. Motion and ball movement are central to the Beavers’ offense, which will bounce back from what was an anomalously sloppy performance, which was part of the team’s let-down after a close loss to high-caliber in-state rival Oregon.
Takeaway
Oregon State has a well-run offense consisting of several dangerous scorers, who UC Davis, with its extensive reliance on a single scorer, will fail to keep up with.
The Beavers are already 5-0 ATS and have been dominating lower-quality competition. All of their wins came when they were favored and came by at least 19 points.
NCAAB Pick: Oregon State -10 (-110) BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
