NCAA Basketball Best Bets for January 11: Indiana Brings Its Defense to Iowa
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Rainman M.
- January 11, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Indiana +5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The sportsbooks have released their odds for Saturday’s college basketball action, and two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Villanova vs. St. John’s and Indiana vs. Iowa. Let’s take a look!
Villanova Wildcats vs. St. John’s Red Storm
Saturday, January 11, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Madison Square Garden
Villanova Wants to Shoot Threes
Villanova’s offense prioritizes three-point attempts. The Wildcats attempt them at the 72nd-highest rate. They have the 20th-highest point distribution from behind the arc.
Hence, in their lowest-scoring game this season, they were inefficient behind the arc, converting 28.1 percent of their three-point attempts against Virginia.
St. John’s Perimeter Defense
The Red Storm are well-tested for this game, having most recently faced two teams that are normally excellent behind the arc.
Their last two opponents were Butler and Xavier, teams that rank 36th and 15th, respectively, in three-point conversion rate. But the Red Storm defense limited both teams from behind the arc. Most impressively, they held their last opponent Xavier to 4-for-18 (22.2%) from deep.
The Johnnies Are Tough and Physical
St. John’s really embodies the New York character of toughness. On defense, the Johnnies like to be physical and to wear down opponents.
The total for this game against Villanova is as high as it is because of the fast tempo that the Johnnies like to play at, but its fast style of play is actually an indication that this game will be lower-scoring.
Their physicality and the swarming character of their defense play into their fast tempo, but these are things that will keep the Wildcats from scoring because they will help wear them down.
Zuby Ejiofor
Perhaps no Red Storm player embodies the team’s toughness better than center Zuby Ejiofor. As evident in his shot-blocking numbers — he ranks 46th in block rate — the former Kansas Jayhawk is a fantastic defender.
Ejiofor is great on defense largely because he is fundamentally sound and has a high motor. His incessant hard work and physicality on defense will help him lock down Eric Dixon, who is his counterpart on Villanova and who is easily the Wildcats’ best player.
Villanova’s Mindset on Defense
The Wildcats may not be as tough, physically speaking, as the Johnnies, but their defense will appear to be very smart in this game.
On defense, they are inclined to concede three-point attempts. They rank 303rd in allowing three-point attempts and allow the 20th-highest point distribution from behind the arc. Villanova’s defense likes to keep guys positioned in the paint. It might double the opposing post player, for example.
As you can see shortly after the second half starts in its game against Temple, Villanova defenders will also leave shooters open in order to help inside and deter opposing ball-handlers from driving to and scoring at the basket.
Why Villanova’s Defense Will Appear Smart
It is smart to make St. John’s score from behind the arc because the Johnnies are horrible from there.
In their last two games, respectively, they converted one of 21 three-point attempts against Butler and shot two of 16 from deep against Xavier. On the season, the Johnnies rank 304th in three-point percentage.
Villanova’s Ball Security
St. John’s is going to want to score inside largely by forcing turnovers and then racing to Nova’s basket.
Quick points would help the “over,” and the Johnnies’ ability to get quick points helps explain the high over/under for this game. But Nova will prevent those quick points because it is well-steeled against pressure.
Villanova is one of the best teams at avoiding turnovers, despite having faced teams like Seton Hall that normally excel at forcing them.
Nova’s ball-security will help establish a half-court-type of game, instead of the up-and-down track meet that the Johnnies prefer with their propensity for playing fast.
Takeaway
The Wildcats will struggle to make threes against the Johnnies’ physical defense, but the Red Storm will also flounder on offense because Villanova will make them attempt a lot of threes.
This game will be played at a slower tempo than St. John’s wants. Both teams will struggle to execute in the half-court.
NCAAB Pick: Under 145.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Saturday, January 11, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Carver-Hawkeye Arena
Iowa’s Weaker Defense
One team in this game is going to defend well. That team will be Indiana.
Iowa has an awful defense that, because opposing teams bring their stronger defense with them, makes the Hawkeyes vulnerable as home favorites. They nearly lost, despite being favored by five, at home to Northwestern. They were favored by four against a Nebraska team that, in Iowa, took them to overtime.
So far in Big Ten play, the Hawkeyes rank 17th in defensive efficiency. In conference play, they rank 17th at limiting opposing three-point percentage and 18th at limiting their opponent’s two-point percentage.
Problems With Owen Freeman
Iowa’s defense is awful largely because its players fail so reliably to guard their man.
Center Owen Freeman is part of the problem. Look at Iowa’s game against Northwestern, with just over 11:30 left in the second half, to see what I mean. Freeman’s man takes him one-on-one, easily driving inside and then pulling up for the short shot, which he leaves just short before simply tipping it in.
We see on this play Iowa’s poor interior defense as well as Iowa’s vulnerability on the glass, both of which are exemplified by Freeman’s play here.
Indiana’s Offense
The Hoosiers will thrive inside. With Malik Reneau in the sidelines, they are finding that they are better with one big on the floor because the absence of a second big ensures ample driving space for guys like point guard Myles Rice.
Indiana’s most dominant player in this game will be Freeman’s counterpart, center Oumar Ballo, who ranks 73rd nationally at two-point percentage.
Led by Ballo, an Indiana offense that attempts the nation’s 53rd-highest rate of field goals at the rim will thrive against a Hawkeye defense that is one of the worst teams at preventing field goals at the basket because it allows a lot of attempts and makes there.
When Iowa misses shots, the Hoosiers will exert their dominance on the glass, where their rebound rate exceeds Iowa’s by 274 spots also because of their superior defensive rebounding.
Indiana’s Improving Defense
After its win against USC, Indiana now ranks third in the Big Ten at limiting opposing PPP (points per possession).
One area where the Hoosiers are succeeding on defense is along the perimeter. Video footage shows them fighting hard through screens, and sometimes switching, in order to deny opposing shooters favorable three-point opportunities.
To this same end, they’ll contest aggressively behind the arc and even jump passing lanes. Iowa relies heavily on making threes, but Indiana’s defense won’t let the Hawkeyes’ shooters breathe.
Takeaway
Indiana is the only team in this game that will have an easy time scoring. The Hoosiers will live at the basket where the Hawkeyes will offer negligible resistance.
Iowa’s offense will fail to keep pace against a solid Indiana defense that will do a great job of contesting Iowa’s shot attempts and of using their dominance on the glass to secure Iowa’s misses.
NCAAB Pick: Indiana +5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
