NCAA Basketball Best Bets for January 25: Cheer, Cheer for Old Notre Dame
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Rainman M.
- January 25, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Notre Dame -2 (-103) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Let’s take a look at the latest betting odds for Saturday’s college basketball action, where three games interest me as worth investing in: Colorado vs. Arizona, Duke vs. Wake Forest, and Notre Dame vs. Virginia.
Colorado Buffaloes vs. Arizona Wildcats
Saturday, January 25, 2025 – 03:00 PM ET at McKale Memorial Center
Lookahead Spot
Arizona is worth fading in this matchup because it is in a classic lookahead spot. The Wildcats are facing what they know to be a soft opponent today. Only two days later, they face a highly-ranked Iowa State opponent.
Also given the low number of days in between these two games, it will be tough for Arizona to maintain its focus on 9-9 Colorado. Doing so will be all the tougher for the Wildcats given the fact that they defeated Colorado in both of their games last year by large margins.
Arizona’s lack of concentration today will lead to Colorado covering the spread.
Supporting Evidence
Now, while these lookahead spots are always interesting to observe, they aren’t always profitable, because some teams are good about handling this specific sort of situation.
What I like about fading Arizona today is that a historical precedent exists that constitutes supporting evidence for a play on the Buffaloes. Last year, the Wildcats were upset at Oregon State two days before their meeting with high-profile Oregon.
Evidently, the Wildcats are vulnerable in lookahead spots.
NCAAB Pick: Colorado +15 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Duke Blue Devils vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Saturday, January 25, 2025 – 04:30 PM ET at LJVM Coliseum
Revenge Angle
After losing at Wake Forest last year, Duke is out for revenge.
The Blue Devils excel at avenging losses from the previous season. Last year, for example, they were upset at Georgia Tech. This season, they won at Georgia Tech by 26 points. Likewise, Duke lost at home to Pittsburgh last season before dismantling the Panthers by 29 points this year in the same venue.
Duke has thus taken advantage of every opportunity to avenge its last-season losses.
Wake Forest’s Decline
Wake Forest has a great record, but it is also playing in a weak conference. This is a team that beat USC Upstate by only five points and that lost by eleven or more points to Xavier, Florida, Texas A&M, and Clemson.
The Demon Deacons are more vulnerable than last year specifically because they have declined from behind the arc. Whereas they converted more than half of their three-point opportunities in their win over Duke last year, they rank 350th in three-point shooting percentage this year.
Andrew Carr, who collected 18 points and four assists in last year’s win over Duke, has proven to be a big loss for the Demon Deacons.
In addition to directly contributing to the team’s superior three-point conversion rate, the current Kentucky Wildcat helped his teammates make more threes by spacing the floor as a stretch four, a power forward who poses a significant threat from behind the arc.
Wake Forest’s Disappointing Wings
On offense, the Demon Deacons rely heavily on the shot-making of Hunter Sallis and Cameron Hildreth. But Sallis has declined heavily from behind the arc, where he is now converting less than 30 percent of his three-point opportunities. Hildreth likes to use his size and post up on smaller guards, but Duke’s guards are well-sized and will not allow Hildreth to bully them.
Because Wake Forest lacks shooters, Duke’s defenders can peel off of Sallis and Hildreth’s teammates in order to provide further help inside and to make sure that those two key players have to take tough, contested shots.
Key Angle for Duke’s Defense
The Blue Devils thrive against offenses that, like Wake Forest’s with its reliance on the shot-making especially of its two leading scorers Sallis and Hildreth, rely on individuals scoring by themselves. Conversely, Duke’s only losses this year came to Kentucky and Arizona teams that do a great job of sharing the basketball.
Whereas Kentucky and Arizona both rank top-50 in assist-per-field goal ratio, the Demon Deacons rank 315th in the category. Duke has thrived against teams like Boston College and Pittsburgh that share Wake Forest’s disinclination to share the basketball.
In this matchup specifically, the shot-blocking of Cooper Flagg and Khaman Maluach, who rank 260th and 127th in block rate, respectively, will limit Hildreth in his characteristic endeavor to attack the basket off the dribble.
The Blue Devils’ ability to switch on ball screens will inhibit Sallis from using them, as he likes to do, to procure favorable shooting opportunities for himself.
Duke’s Explosive Offense
It’s hard to like a Wake Forest team to cover the spread against the Blue Devils when you don’t like Wake Forest’s offense. The Demon Deacons will need to score a lot of points to stay within cover range against a Duke offense that ranks fourth in efficiency.
Duke enters today’s game having scored over 80 points in each of its last three games and in six of its last seven. It scored 76 in a 29-point blowout in the one exception. The Blue Devils will especially thrive from behind the arc where they are extremely efficient.
Wake Forest allows three-point attempts at a uniquely high rate, even allowing pathetic Miami, for example, to make eleven threes and score 78 points.
Extra Edge
On top of everything else, the Blue Devils own a tremendous edge on the glass. They rank around 200 spots higher than Wake Forest in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage.
By accumulating second-chance points and taking more shot attempts, they will further secure their dominant margin of victory.
Takeaway
Wake Forest’s iso-heavy offense matches up poorly against Duke’s defense, which is supported by versatile ball-screen defenders and effective shot-blockers.
Meanwhile, the Blue Devils offense will continue to thrive, especially taking advantage of Wake’s uniquely vulnerable perimeter defense.
In these ways, the Blue Devils will satisfy their desire for revenge.
NCAAB Pick: Duke -11 (-108) at BetOnline
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Saturday, January 25, 2025 – 06:30 PM ET at John Paul Jones Arena
Down Spot for Virginia
Virginia is in a fade spot today because it is coming off a big win. Whenever the Cavaliers put together a really strong performance, they fall flat in their next game. When they defeated Villanova on November 15, they lost to Tennessee in their next game by 22 points.
Later, the Cavaliers fought really hard against a favored Memphis team. They covered the spread, losing only by two points. But then their next game was an ugly five-point home win against lowly American.
Most recently, they lost by 20 at home to Louisville after securing a conference-opening revenge win against NC State and lost big again to Louisville after taking a clearly favored SMU team down to the wire.
They are worth fading tonight because they looked fantastic in their last game, a blowout win against Boston College.
Virginia’s Poor Perimeter Defense
Virginia badly misses Reece Beekman and Ryan Dunn, who were both excellent stoppers on defense and are, largely for this reason, now in the NBA. Without them, the Cavaliers have a lot of inconsistent, struggling, and generally lower-quality defensive players who lack chemistry with each other.
Their head coach is also still trying to figure out which pieces work best together on the defensive end. His perceived need to experiment with player combinations is critical because Virginia’s pack-line defense takes time for players to adjust to — this defensive scheme comes with a notoriously extensive learning curve.
They need continuity — especially because many of them lack experience, prior to this season, in the pack-line defense — but their head coach is giving them the opposite.
Virginia has benefited from facing a lot of poor three-point shooting teams — and still has lost almost every ACC game. But the Fighting Irish are one of the most efficient three-point shooting teams. They will take advantage of a raw and low-quality version of the pack-line defense that allows a very high point distribution from behind the arc.
Notre Dame’s Superior Perimeter Defense
Notre Dame’s perimeter defense is superior to Virginia’s because it is able to plan for and execute against an offense that relies heavily on making three-pointers.
The Fighting Irish, for example, held a Duke team that attempts more threes than almost any other team to a three-point conversion rate well below its season average.
They guarded Duke’s ball-handlers well behind the three-point line. They even sprung double teams to force ball-handlers behind the arc to pass to a teammate and then rotated well to continue to prevent open three-point shooting opportunities.
Virginia relies heavily on making three-pointers and is one of the worst teams in its conference at making shots inside the arc.
So, I like Notre Dame’s defense in this game given what it sought and managed to do against an offensively elite Duke’s three-point attack. Notre Dame, in sum, will have a much easier time scoring in this game than Virginia.
NCAAB Pick: Notre Dame -2 (-103) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
