NCAA Basketball Best Bets for January 4: Let’s Profit From ACC Basketball
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Rainman M.
- January 4, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Wake Forest -5.5 (-114) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for Saturday’s college basketball action.
I am most interested in three ACC games: NC State vs. Wake Forest, Louisville vs. Virginia, and Syracuse vs. Florida State.
Let’s dive in!
NC State Wolfpack vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Saturday, January 04, 2025 – 12:00 PM ET ET at LJVM Coliseum
Why Location Matters
Location matters in this game because NC State’s defense gains decisive energy from its home crowd.
Under head coach Kevin Keatts, Wolfpack defenders like to apply ball pressure. Hence, their turnover rate is very high. Their excellent season-long turnover rate is misleading, however, because it masks their struggles away from home. Whereas they force 15.8 turnovers at home, their opponents average ten turnovers per road game. This is a big disparity.
Home-road statistical disparities are sometimes misleading because they can be the product of scheduling coincidences, such as of a team happening to have played harder games on the road.
But the Wolfpack’s home-road turnover disparity does accurately reflect the importance of location to them. In their last game, the Wolfpack played at a Virginia team that, this year, does a terrible job of avoiding turnovers because its point guard play is poor.
I hate to be mean as a Virginia alum, but its point guard Andrew Rohde does not belong on a Division-I basketball court. But even Rohde turned it over only one time against NC State. Because they were playing at home, the Cavaliers maintained a low turnover rate. Their low turnover rate helped them achieve the minor upset.
Wake Forest’s Key Point Guard
In its ten-point win at Syracuse in its last game, Wake Forest showed a significant improvement on offense by scoring 81 points.
Ty-Laur Johnson is its key point guard because he spearheaded this improvement. The Demon Deacons profited from his increase in minutes. Johnson is an excellent scoring guard who thrives inside the paint. While he gets a lot of assists, his best feature is his ability to draw fouls at the basket. Last year, he drew the fifth-most fouls per 40 minutes in ACC play.
Outlook for Wake Forest’s Offense
Led by Johnson, the Demon Deacons’ offense is strong inside the arc. Without having to worry about NC State’s ball pressure, they will thrive inside against a defense that, as evident in its opposing two-point percentage, does a poor job of defending the basket when it doesn’t achieve a turnover.
Offenses regularly use NC State’s aggressiveness and propensity for pressure against it. For example, with 15:30 left in the second half of its last game against Virginia, an NC State defender bites hard on a would-be pass attempt, allowing the opposing Virginia player to fake going toward the ball before going the other way to actually receive the pass. The latter then has an easy path toward the basket, so that he puts added pressure on the basket.
Overall, opposing bigs and versatile scorers who pose a threat from behind the arc thrive inside against the Wolfpack.
For example, in their two ACC games so far, Florida State’s center and Virginia’s power forward combined for 45 points against them.
Wake Forest Defends Well Inside
On the other side, NC State relies heavily on scoring inside.
The Wolfpack are both allergic to shooting threes and bad at making them — they rank 323rd in three-point attempts and 223rd in three-point conversion rate. They will struggle inside against a Wake Forest defense that has been one of the best at defending inside and blocking shots.
Tre’Von Spillers and Efton Reid have both been terrific shot-blockers for Wake Forest’s defense. Spillers is not that tall, but he is very athletic and boasts a good motor, while Reid is a more imposing seven-footer.
The Pick
NC State’s best bet is to limit Wake Forest’s offense by applying ball pressure, but the Wolfpack defense struggles on the road.
Whereas Wake Forest will get the ball inside and thrive in this space, NC State will depend on scoring inside and will fail to succeed there against Wake Forest’s array of shot-blockers.
NCAAB Pick: Wake Forest -5.5 (-114) at BetOnline
Louisville Cardinals vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Saturday, January 04, 2025 – 04:00 PM ET at John Paul Jones Arena
Key Trend
Virginia is an auto-play on Saturday because it enters this game having won nine games in a row against Louisville.
While those wins happened under former coach Tony Bennett, Virginia is now led effectively by Bennett’s former assistant, Ron Sanchez. Sanchez is doing a great job, which is why Virginia has covered the spread in three of its last four games. He has this team competing hard. Recently, for example, the Hoos stayed within two points of a much more athletic Memphis team.
They won as underdogs against NC State in their last game, which reiterated Sanchez’s tendency to have his team play its best basketball after making halftime adjustments.
Against Bethune-Cookman, for example, Virginia looked awful at first but ended up covering the large spread by surging in the second half.
As when they were losing at halftime to UTEP before barely winning the game, the Cardinals are not particularly good in the first-half, though, so I don’t expect Virginia to start slowly in this game.
Parlay Leg 1: Virginia +5 (-110) at BetOnline
Syracuse Orange vs. Florida State Seminoles
Saturday, January 04, 2025 – 06:00 PM ET at Tucker Center
Key Trend
I want to pair the Florida State ML with Virginia partly because of a key trend that justifies the expectation that the Orange will lose this game.
Syracuse is winless on the road, with all six of its wins coming in its home venue. Conversely, the Orange are 0-7 in their away and neutral-site games.
Florida State’s Lengthy Defense
Florida State’s venue is not where Syracuse will end its away-from-home struggles, because the Seminoles boast decisive matchup advantages.
While on offense the Orange depends heavily on making mid-range jumpers — they attempt them at the 17th-highest rate — Florida State excels at locking down the mid-range, as evident in the low rate of shots and the low conversion rate that they concede in this space.
In college basketball, defenders often struggle to defend this space because they incline toward guarding the basket, which means that opposing ball-handlers can create space for themselves by pulling up, instead of driving all the way to the basket, for a two-point jumper.
But Florida State’s defense is unusual because it is lengthy — the Seminoles rank third in height. Their length makes it easier for them to contest all sorts of two-point jumpers, including pull-up ones. Moreover, their defense features good positioning, which helps congest the interior, and aggressive help defense, which is determined to close driving lanes down the middle of the interior, as you can see with just under 3:30 left in the first half of its game against Tulane when a Seminoles help defender immediately deters a Tulane ball-handler from driving inside down the middle.
Florida State Will Score Too Many Points
On offense, the Seminoles want to score inside the arc, and they’ll have no trouble doing so against Syracuse.
Syracuse lacks effective shot-blockers and overall does a poor job of defending the paint. Hence, the Orange lost at home to a Georgetown team that shoots terribly from behind the arc.
Florida State repeatedly scores 80 or 90 points at home and will do so against the Orange defense. Syracuse has struggled especially against wings, and the Seminoles are led by one in their top shot-taker Jamir Watkins.
The Pick
For this parlay, let’s count on Virginia to continue beating Louisville and on Florida State to prolong Syracuse’s road woes.
Parlay Leg 2: Florida State ML (-420) at BetOnline
The Parlay
- Virginia +5 (-110)
- Florida State ML (-420)
NCAAB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+136) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
