NCAA Basketball Best Bets for November 23: Stanford Just Keeps Winning
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Rainman M.
- November 22, 2024
Top NCAAF Pick: Stanford -1 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NCAAB odds for Saturday’s action.
Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Cincinnati vs. Georgia Tech and Stanford vs. Santa Clara. For your best bets, I will recommend investing in Cincinnati and Stanford.
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Saturday, November 23, 2024 – 02:00 PM ET at McCamish Pavilion
Last Year’s Meeting
Cincinnati and Georgia Tech also played last year, on November 22, in Cincinnati. In that game, the Bearcats destroyed Georgia Tech.
The score was 89-54, which reflects the extent to which Cincinnati was able to do what it wanted to do on offense while the Yellow Jackets failed to keep pace.
Georgia Tech’s Defense Needs to Be Better
In order to have a chance of covering the spread this time, the Yellow Jackets will need to do a much better job on defense. Their results this year, though, are fomenting a negative outlook for their defense.
Most recently, they lost 77-69 to a Georgia team that wasn’t even efficient from behind the arc. Even more concerning is the fact that they gave up over 100 points to North Florida. But perhaps the most concerning thing of all is the way they look on the court.
Georgia brought intensity and physicality to Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs played tough and talked trash. Georgia Tech did not respond well in any respect, showing that it is a soft group.
Georgia Tech’s Man Defense
The Yellow Jackets allowed Georgia to be highly efficient inside the arc because their man-to-man is highly ineffective.
An example of their poor defense came with just over 16 minutes left in the second half. Georgia Tech’s defender moved a bit into the screener, which promptly sufficed to give the Georgia ball-handler sufficient room to blow by him and to make it all the way to the basket for an easy layup.
Yellow Jackets defenders offer minimal help against dribble penetration even though they lack a solid rim protector. They are overly concerned with preventing three-point attempts off a kick-out.
The Yellow Jackets barely force turnovers, so they have to execute really well. But they don’t execute well, which is why offenses are able to put up a lot of points against them.
Cincinnati’s Offense
The Bearcats look even better on offense this year than they did last year. Currently, their offensive efficiency is 13th-best, whereas they ranked 79th in the category last year.
They are the 19th-most efficient team at the rim because they have both smaller guys and bigger guys who are effective scorers at the basket. Guard Jizzle James, for example, has yet to miss a shot at the basket.
On offense, Cincinnati displays strong spacing and fluid ball movement. As you will see on Saturday, Bearcat players receive plenty of operating room inside the arc, which they will take advantage of without much resistance from Georgia Tech’s porous man-to-man.
Cincinnati’s Defense
As its defensive efficiency rating shows, Cincinnati has one of the top defenses.
The Bearcats are great at locking down the perimeter, preventing teams from attempting threes. They are also super tough to score on inside.
Their main rim protector is Aziz Bandaogo, who can guard out on the perimeter but is at his best as a shot-blocker around the basket. His size and mobility help him own the 13th-best block percentage.
Georgia Tech’s offense lacks good shooters and lacks scoring talent in general, for which reason it has only reached 70 points against North Florida. Cincinnati’s defense will be its toughest test so far.
Takeaway
The Bearcats are cruising with one double-digit win after another. I do not foresee Georgia Tech, with its numerous problems on defense and its lack of firepower on offense, stopping Cincinnati’s momentum.
NCAAB Pick: Cincinnati -7 (-110) at BetOnline
Stanford Cardinal vs. Santa Clara Broncos
Saturday, November 23, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Leavey Center
Stanford’s Inside Scoring
Stanford will be too much for Santa Clara in the paint.
Maxime Raynaud may not be the most physical center in the world, but he has impressive touch and is a strong rebounder, complementing the threat that he poses outside the arc. However, instead of on Raynaud, Stanford relies especially on guard Jaylen Blakes to draw fouls. He loves amassing paint touches and excels at finishing at the basket.
Meanwhile, Christoph Tilly averages way too many fouls per 40 minutes and will form part of Santa Clara’s problem with interior defense. Santa Clara ranks 282nd at preventing free throws because it lacks a well-sized rim protector who can defend without fouling.
Santa Clara’s Porous Perimeter Defense
It is deeply problematic that Stanford with its finishers owns a positive outlook inside because Santa Clara is even worse at guarding the perimeter.
Stanford’s shooters are also hard to guard because there are so many of them, including Raynaud. They are able to space themselves out along the perimeter, which makes it harder for an opposing defender to reach each shooter.
Overall, Stanford attempts threes at one of the highest rates and has a great outlook on offense against a defense that concedes three-point attempts at one of the highest rates. Three-point defense has already been a significant problem for Santa Clara, as when it was upset at home by North Dakota State.
Especially with point guard Benny Gealer and Raynaud, Stanford is well-constructed to pose further problems for the Broncos’ perimeter defense.
Under Pressure
Defense is a major point of emphasis for Cardinal head coach Kyle Smith. His players play hard. They hustle, dive for loose balls and, most consequentially, have active hands. Their intensity and activity facilitate their high steal rate.
When facing a team that steals the ball as often as Stanford does, it is important to have good point guards because point guards are supposed to be valuable, stabilizing ball-handlers who create offense. But Santa Clara lacks true point guards. Its starting point guard, Carlos Stewart, is a shoot-first combo guard by nature. As such, the Broncos are ill-equipped to handle the Cardinal’s pressure, which will take them out of rhythm on offense.
They have thrived on offense against teams that with regularity barely force turnovers, so Stanford’s aggressive defense will pose a unique challenge for them.
Takeaway
Stanford will thrive on offense both in the paint and outside the arc while Santa Clara will lack the rhythm and creativity on offense to keep pace.
NCAAF Pick: Stanford -1 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
