NCAA Basketball Best Bets for November 9: Northwestern Is Lengthy, Tough, and Strong
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Rainman M.
- November 9, 2024
Top NCAAB Pick: Northwestern +5.5 (-110) at BetOnline
The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for Saturday’s slate of college basketball.
I am interested, in particular, in two games: Tennessee vs. Louisville and Northwestern vs. Dayton, so join us for some basketball betting advice!
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Louisville Cardinals
Saturday, November 09, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at KFC Yum! Center
Tennessee’s Defense
Tennessee made it as far as it did in the NCAA Tournament last year in large part because it boasted an elite defense. The Volunteers ranked third in defensive efficiency.
This year, however, the Volunteers are a different team after they lost three starters in the offseason. So far, their defense looks shaky.
In their season-opener against low-profile Gardner-Webb, they allowed their opponent to be highly efficient inside the arc — Gardner-Webb converted 56.2 percent of its two-pointers.
For Tennessee, new center Felix Okpara was supposed to provide stout defense inside. Frequently beat to the basket, he did not look confident in his rim protection.
Louisville’s Inside Scoring
Albeit against a soft opponent, Louisville was effective inside the arc and around the rim in its season-opener. It has the personnel to take advantage of Tennessee’s deficient interior defense.
As evident in the rate at which its individual players attempted shots in the team’s season-opener, this offense is spearheaded by its power forwards and centers.
Look out especially for team scoring leader Kasean Pryor, who was 4-for-5 from inside the arc in the season-opener.
Last year, the versatile center proved to be a dangerous three-point shooter. He is tough to guard because he can use the threat that he poses behind the arc to make it easier for himself to get to the basket.
Can Tennessee Exploit Louisville’s Weakness?
Louisville’s frontcourt is pretty thin in terms of its physicality. It would be vulnerable against an offense that has strong, well-sized scorers inside.
Tennessee’s offense, though, revolves around its guard play and wings. It lacks big bruisers who can out-physical the Cardinals inside.
What is bad news for the Volunteers: the Cardinals’ defensive strength is along the perimeter where Chucky Hepburn will exert a significant influence on this game. At Wisconsin, he was commonly praised as a great perimeter defender and the Badgers’ best on-ball defender.
Fellow guard Koren Johnson, who steals the ball at a high rate, complements Hepburn with his energy on defense. Guys like these will help stifle Tennessee’s best chances for offensive success.
The Pick
Tennessee won’t hurt Louisville’s defense where it appears most vulnerable, which is inside, around the basket.
But the Volunteers won’t otherwise be dangerous because Louisville is well-stocked with perimeter defenders, which in this matchup will make up for their thinness inside.
On offense, the Cardinals will thrive inside against what is a vulnerable Tennessee interior.
NCAAB Pick: Louisville +1 (-110) at BetOnline
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Dayton Flyers
Saturday, November 09, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at UD Arena
Dayton Wants to Shoot Three-Pointers
Under head coach Anthony Grant, Dayton annually loves to shoot three-pointers at a high rate. Given this proclivity to shoot threes, scoring will be difficult for the Flyers. Never mind the fact that three of their top four three-point shooters from last season have either moved on to the NBA or transferred to a different program.
We can even forget that they have largely been shooting poorly up until now, including in their season-opener, when they missed 75 percent of their three-point attempts.
The key point is that Northwestern has a suffocating defense, which it displayed in its dominating season-opening win. The Wildcats held Lehigh to 46 points. Lehigh shot 2-for-17 from behind the arc.
Northwestern’s defenders denied Lehigh’s shooters operating room behind the arc. While, yes, Lehigh is a soft opponent, it is necessary to appreciate the evident physical capabilities of Northwestern’s defenders.
They are long — Northwestern ranks 38th in height — and they are able to switch a lot on ball-screens, which will prevent opposing teams from using screens to free up shooting opportunities from behind the arc.
Northwestern’s Strong Offense
On offense, Northwestern has the personnel to exploit what is a physically weak Dayton interior defense. For example, the Flyers’ starting center, Amael L’Etang, is 50 pounds lighter than Northwestern’s starting center, Matthew Nicholson.
The Wildcats will also pound it inside with improving well-sized scorers like Luke Hunger.
When these two teams played last year, Northwestern won despite Dayton making an absurd 12 of 23 three-point attempts. For the Wildcats, Nick Martinelli thrived inside. He can complement Nicholson and Hunger inside by being a bully around the basket.
While Northwestern’s shooters will demand respect from behind the arc — look out, among others, for Ty Berry, who was 2-for-4 from deep in the season-opener after making over 43 percent of his three-point attempts last year — the Wildcats will primarily thrive inside the arc.
The Pick
Dayton wants to shoot a lot of threes but will fail to do so against a switch-heavy and long Northwestern defense.
Whereas the Flyers will be uncomfortable on offense given Northwestern’s stout perimeter defense, the Wildcats will be comfortable bullying Dayton in order to complement their three-point shooting prowess with strong scoring at the basket.
NCAAB Pick: Northwestern +5.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
