NCAA Tournament First Four Best Bets: Tar Heels and Aztecs Soar Over Total
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LT Profits
- March 18, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: North Carolina/San Diego State Over 142 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Well, the time that every college basketball fan has been waiting for has arrived with the NCAA Tournament starting this week. March Madness begins with the First Four Round on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the four winners playing their way into the main 64-team bracket that kicks off on Thursday.
And we are here with three best bets for the First Four games based mostly on our proprietary model, comprised of two totals and one side, that we feel hold value at the top-rated sportsbooks. We have selections for both games on Tuesday, as well as one for the Xavier vs. Texas matchup on Wednesday.
St. Francis Red Flash vs. Alabama State Hornets
Tuesday, March 18, 2025 – 06:40 PM EDT at UD Arena
The opening game on Tuesday pits two teams that made surprising runs in their conference tournaments in St. Francis (PA) from the Northeast Conference and Alabama State from the SWAC. The end-result is a pairing of two bad offenses that has us backing the Under in the opening game in Dayton.
Losing Record Overall
St. Francis made the NCAA Tournament with a losing record overall at 16-17, thanks to upsetting Central Connecticut as 11.5-point underdogs in the Northeast Conference Championship Game. The bigger story in terms of our prediction for this game though is the final score of that contest of 46-43, a score out of the basketball stone age!
Sadly, while winning a game with 46 points scored is extreme, the Red Flash has been lacking in offense all season, ranking 299th in the country in offensive efficiency.
Surprisingly, they are a touch above average in eFG% at 51.6%. But that gets quickly counteracted by limited possessions, as they are sloppy with the basketball ranking 321st in turnover percentage and they do not get second chances, ranking 314th in offensive rebounding percentage. Furthermore, those lost possessions get compounded by playing at a slow pace to begin with, ranking 247th in Tempo Rating.
Moreover, the strength of the Alabama State defense is turning opponents over, as the Hornets are a commendable 91st in turnover percentage forced at 18.6% (national average 17.3%).
Poor Shooting
Alabama State is a mediocre 19-15, but they got here by upsetting Jackson State 60-56 in the SWAC Championship Game. However, their offense has not exactly been scintillating either, as that marked their second straight win while scoring in the low 60s after edging Grambling 64-62 in the semifinals.
And believe it or not, the Hornets are the worse shooting team here ranking 327th in eFG% at a mere 47.1% (national average 50.9%). They are “better” in offensive efficiency ranking a still bad 270th due to being excellent in ball protection ranking fifth in the country in turnover percentage. One would think that would lead to excellent looks, but they obviously lack the shooters to take advantage.
They are facing a Red Flash defense ranked 92nd in 3-point defense allowing a 32.3% success rate, and Alabama State is just 222nd in 3-point shooting anyway at 32.8%. So, the Hornets cannot expect much beyond the arc, which is bad news for a team ranked a dismal 344th in 2-point shooting at 45.4%.
The Pick
The bottom line here is there is plenty of bad offense to go around for both teams, and each club has one defensive strength that matches a weakness for their opponent. Thus, we bet the Under in the first game of the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
Predicted Score: Alabama State 66 – St. Francis (PA) 62
NCAAB Pick: St. Francis/Alabama State Under 139 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. San Diego State Aztecs
Tuesday, March 18, 2025 – 09:10 PM EDT at UD Arena
The nightcap of the first night of the First Four pits a North Carolina team that many people feel does not deserve to be in the Big Dance against a San Diego State squad that got knocked out in their opening game of the Mountain West Tournament. Despite the defensive prowess of the Aztecs on paper, we are betting on the Over in this spot.
Can Still Score
North Carolina is 22-13 overall and finished fifth in the ACC at 13-7. And they then won two games in the ACC Tournament before rallying from more than 20 points down and losing by three points to Duke. That was enough for the Selection Committee to let UNC in, while the naysayers quickly pointed out they were 1-12 vs. Quan 1 teams beating only UCLA while going 21-1 against everyone else.
That is fair and probably the reason the committee is forcing the Tar Heels to play in the First Four. But regardless, they did play in a better conference than San Diego State and they have proven they can score against that better competition. The Heels rank 24th in the country in scoring at 80.8 points per game, thanks to ranking 22nd in offensive efficiency while playing at a fast pace, ranking 34th in Tempo Rating.
If North Carolina starts hitting shots early, it will force the Aztecs to quicken their pace more than they would like in order to keep up, which would be an added boon to our Over.
Weaker Conference
San Diego State is 21-9 and was expected to make a deep run in the MWC Tournament, but they fell to Boise State in their opening game. They still made the Big Dance though and are ranked 46th in Kenpom, keyed by a defense ranked an excellent 13th in efficiency and fifth in eFG% allowed.
Now, we are by no means saying that the Aztecs are bad defensively because they are very good, but there is a reason that the ACC is a major conference while the Mountain West is considered a mid-major. Those defensive rankings are probably inflated a bit from facing some bad MWC offenses.
In fact, North Carolina represents the second-highest-ranked team in offensive efficiency that SDST has faced all year, and the Aztecs allowed 80 points at home to eight-ranked Gonzaga. Therefore, it would not surprise us if the Tar Heels approach 80 in this game, especially if they can get this game played at their pace.
Remember also that San Diego State is averaging 70.8 points while ranking 245th in Tempo Rating, so they can do their share offensively at a quicker tempo.
The Pick
We look for North Carolina to impose their will pace-wise here as they look to silence their critics, and with San Diego State competent offensively, this has us backing the Over on Tuesday in Dayton.
Predicted Score: North Carolina 79 – San Diego State 73
NCAAB Pick: North Carolina/San Diego State Over 142 (-110) at Bovada
Predict the Madness
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Xavier Musketeers vs. Texas Longhorns
Wednesday, March 19, 2025 – 09:10 PM EDT at UD Arena
The final game of the First Four Wednesday night is an 11-seed matchup between Xavier and Texas. And we are siding with a more team-oriented Xavier squad that we also think has a nice coaching edge.
One-on-One Ball
Texas is a rather disappointing 19-15 and went 6-12 in the SEC, but two wins in the conference tournament with the second being an upset win over Texas A&M was enough to get them in while playing in the best conference in the land. And this team does grade out well on both ends ranking 37th in offensive efficiency and 56th in defensive efficiency.
The issue we have with the Longhorns though is their tendency to try and play “hero ball” with their starters all trying to create their own shots. This has led to strong rumors regarding the job security of head coach Rodney Terry in recent weeks, as he tends to let his players play while not making many in-game adjustments.
That may work when Texas is hot, but what stands out to us is the Horns are 294th in the country in A/FGM ratio, validating what we said about their players trying to create their shots one-on-one. That has led to stretches of droughts when the shots are not falling, as Texas is 95th in eFG% despite the better-looking efficiency rating.
That good offensive efficiency is keyed by ranking 18th in turnover percentage, but to play Devil’s Advocate, one way to limit turnovers is by not trying to pass the ball enough.
Better eFG%
Xaver is 21-11 and went 13-7 in the Big East, although they were quickly knocked out of the conference tournament with a narrow 89-87 loss to a good Marquette team. Still, this is also a well-balanced team ranked 52nd in offensive efficiency and 44th in defensive efficiency, with the latter being noticeably better than Texas.
However, while the Musketeers trail the Longhorns in offensive efficiency, they are the better shooting team ranking 55th in eFG%. They are an amazing sixth in the country in 3-point shooting at 38.8%, and they have one thing that Texas lacks in a go-to interior scorer in Zach Freemantle, who is averaging 17.4 points while making 59.7% of his 2-point shots.
And Xavier is the antithesis of Texas when it comes to playing team ball, ranking fourth in the nation in A/FGM ratio at 63.9% (national average 51.9%). Moreover, let us not forget that head coach Sean Miller has tons of big-game experience.
The Pick
To sum up, Xavier has the better defense, a more balanced offense with playmakers distributing the ball and what we think is a big coaching edge. Bet on the Musketeers as small favorites to advance to the main bracket.
Predicted Score: Xavier 81 – Texas 72
NCAAB Pick: Xavier -3 (-113) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
