NCAA Tournament First Round Best Bets: Grab Those Cardinal Numbers
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Jason Lake
- March 19, 2025
NCAAB Pick: Louisville –2.5 (–105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
I must be dreaming. The Louisville Cardinals (27-7 SU, 19-12 ATS) fell to the 8-seed in the South Regional? And they’re only laying 2.5 points for Thursday’s opening-round March Madness tilt with the No. 9 Creighton Bluejays (24-10 SU, 18-11-2 ATS)? Localized entirely within Rupp Arena, an hour’s drive west from Louisville?
If it seems too good to be true, maybe it is. The early consensus reports at the top-rated sportsbooks show 71% support for Creighton, and you know what they say: Early money is sharp money. We’re still inclined to put Louisville in our March Madness picks here at the ranch, but if the betting angles aren’t all lined up for us, a fun-sized wager might have to do.
No. 9 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 8 Louisville Cardinals
Thursday, March 20, 2025 – 12:15 PM EDT at Rupp Arena
What Does KenPom Say?
That Louisville is better than an 8-seed. Kenpom’s efficiency-based stats have the Cardinals ranked No. 23 overall (No. 29 offense, No. 21 defense) in Division I, ahead of three teams who made the Big Dance as 5-seeds:
- Michigan (No. 25)
- Oregon (No. 31)
- Memphis (No. 51)
Creighton, on the other hand, is a viable 9-seed at No. 37 overall (No. 34 offense, No. 42 defense) on the Pomeroy charts. The difference in Net Rating between the two teams is 3.93 points per 100 possessions; they average about 68 possessions per game, so let’s see, carry the one… that works out to about Louisville –2.67 for a kayfabe March Madness betting line.
Ah, except we’re not actually on a neutral court for Thursday’s contest.
I’m sure there will be a contingent of Creighton fans who make the trip from Omaha, but if Apple Maps isn’t lying to me, you have to drive almost 19 hours past Chicago and Minneapolis to get there, as if a plague of locusts had descended on Iowa and Missouri. I feel a Tom Waits song coming on.
Home-court advantage was worth 3.09 points this year in Division I college hoops, according to Jeff Sagarin’s computers. Would it be unreasonable to project Louisville at around –5.5 for this matchup? If not, we’ve got ample room between our projection and the March Madness odds for a proper one-unit bet.
Doesn’t the ACC Suck Now?
That’s a bit harsh, but yes. Thanks to the football-driven realignment of NCAA college sports, the once-mighty Atlantic Coast Conference has seen its basketball profile diminished; the ACC ranks fifth overall among this year’s Division I conferences at plus-10.18 according to the Simple Rating System at Sports Reference, behind the Big East (plus-12.39 SRS) in fourth.
Creighton also picked up some steam after beating the two-time and defending national champions from UConn (–4) 71-62 in the Big East semifinals. People seem to have already forgotten that St. John’s went on to thump the Bluejays (+6.5) 82-66 in the final – or maybe they just tuned out after the Huskies got eliminated.
Meanwhile, the last we saw of the Cardinals was their 73-62 loss to Duke (–6.5) at the ACC Championship Game. No shame in losing to the No. 1 team in college hoops.
The Pick
It’s possible the Bluejays pull this out; 7-foot center Ryan Kalkbrenner has led the Big East in both field goal efficiency and blocks for three straight years, and PG Steven Ashworth is tops this season in both assists per game (6.8) and free-throw percentage (92.6).
Still, this is a tough matchup for Ashworth against Chucky Hepburn, the ACC Defensive Player of the Year. Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
NCAAB Pick: Louisville –2.5 (–105) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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