NCAAB Best Bets for December 4: Bulldogs to Bark Past Panthers
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LT Profits
- December 4, 2024
Top NCAAF Pick: Mississippi State -5.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We went a profitable 2-1 last night, and now return to a Wednesday NCAA Basketball card that brings us 39 games on the main board including several early conference openers. We are here with three best bets based mostly on our proprietary model comprised of two sides and one total that we feel all hold value at the current betting odds.
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Maryland Terrapins
Wednesday, December 04, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at XFINITY Center
In the Big Ten Conference opener for both schools Wednesday, we foresee a covering win for Maryland at home hosting Ohio State in College Park.
Size Matters
Maryland is off to a nice 7-1 start and has now climbed to 30th overall on Kenpom. This is a solid team on both ends of the court, ranking 40th in offensive efficiency and 36th in eFG%, as well as 26th in defensive efficiency and 20th in eFG% allowed. They also have a big size advantage here with 6’10” Derik Queen being their go-to guy and 6’9” Julian Reese being their next biggest contributor.
That has led to a 34.2% offensive rebounding percentage, which should lead to many second chances. At the same time, they should dominate on the defensive end allowing hardly any second opportunities, as they are 24th in defensive rebounding while the much smaller Buckeyes are just 173rd offensively.
Coming Off Tough Loss
Ohio State is coming off a very tough 91-90 loss at home to Pittsburgh, where they led most of the game before Pitt forced overtime late, and then lost on a walk-off 3-pointer at the buzzer. That dropped them to 5-2, with the last four wins being against teams ranked 228th or worst on Kenpom. They did open the year with a nice upset of #34 Texas on a neutral floor, but they are facing a team now ranked higher than that on the road here.
And remember that the Buckeyes start no player that is taller than 6’6”. Besides the obvious rebounding concerns that are created against a team with two bigs, it may also disrupt what they do best. You see, Ohio State ranks third in the country in 3-point shooting, but Maryland can afford to sag one big man out to defend the perimeter while still leaving the other in to rebound against a small lineup.
So, Maryland should be able to dominate in the second-chance department here while also somewhat contain the normally great Ohio State 3-point shooting. Add in home-court advantage and bet on the Terrapins as modest favorites Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Maryland 75 – Ohio State 66
NCAAF Pick: Maryland -4 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. Memphis Tigers
Wednesday, December 04, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at FedExForum
We expect the offenses to prevail in this non-conference affair on Wednesday, so we are betting on the Over when Memphis out of the AAC hosts Louisiana Tech from Conference USA at FedExForum.
Lead Nation in 3-Point Shooting
Memphis started the season 5-0 before losing to an Auburn team currently ranked #1 on Kenpom and #2 in the AP Poll in their last game. And their last two Memphis wins came against teams in the Kenpom Top 25 including knocking off defending National Championship Connecticut. Still, we are not very high on the long-term prospects for the Tigers as this is a team all about offense that is rather lax on defense.
At the same time, however, that often makes Memphis a prime Over target, and tonight is no exception. This is a team that leads the country in 3-point shooting at a sizzling 46.9%. They are led by the current #7 player on the early Kenpom Player of the Year Rankings in PJ Haggerty, who is averaging 22.1 points and 6.3 rebounds per game while shooting 43.5% beyond the arc.
As you might expect, the Tigers are averaging 81.6 points per game against a tough schedule that included three teams in the Kenpom Top 25 as well as another good team in #62 San Francisco.
Caught Looking Ahead
Louisiana Tech began the year 7-0, but they more than likely got caught looking ahead to this game when suffering a stunning 73-70 home loss to Southern out of the SWAC Conference on Saturday. Nonetheless, the Bulldogs are averaging 81.0 points themselves even with that sub-par effort, and apparently, they have been focusing on this major test since before that disaster.
As mentioned, LA Tech figures to get some help here from a Memphis team that does not always get back on defense. The Tigers rank 195th in eFG% allowed, a disgusting 236th in 3-point defense and 156th in 2-point defense. The Bulldogs can also generate second chances here with Memphis ranked 271st in defensive rebounding percentage.
In the end, Memphis should prevail just with their offense alone, but we also expect Louisiana Tech to score its share of buckets. This has us backing the Over in Memphis.
Predicted Score: Memphis 84 – Louisiana Tech 74
NCAAF Pick: Over 147.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Wednesday, December 04, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Humphrey Coliseum
The ACC/SEC Challenge continues Wednesday, and we like Mississippi State of the SEC to secure a safe win at home in Starkville over Pittsburgh out of the ACC.
Rarely Turn Ball Over
Mississippi State began 6-0 before suffering their first loss of the season to Butler on a neutral court in Arizona on Friday. They are welcoming returning home after being away for over three weeks, with their last four games being either on the road or on neutral floors. The significance of returning to Starkville is the Bulldogs have the 12th biggest home-court advantage in college basketball according to Kenpom at a full +4.0 points.
This is a well-balanced team on any floor that ranks 29th nationally in offensive efficiency and 35th in defensive efficiency. MSU excels at ball protection offensively, ranking second in the country in turnover percentage at a mere 11.8% (national average 17.8%). We expect the Bulldogs to comfortably win the turnover battle in this game, which becomes huge with these teams close in other areas.
Not Many Assists
Pittsburgh is 7-1 and has now climbed up to 12th overall on Kenpom after upsetting Ohio State on the road in Columbus 91-90 last game on a walk-off three-pointer in overtime. Frankly, however, we feel that ranking is rather ambitious for a team that does not have a true point guard, and we feel that Pitt will get exposed tonight facing a team with great guards that do not turn the ball over.
The de facto point guard for the Panthers is Jaland Lowe, but he is in reality a second shooting guard, in fact ranking second on the team with 16.6 PPG behind only true shooting guard Ishmael Leggett’s 18.4 points. That has led to the most glaring weakness of an otherwise fine Pittsburgh team, as they rank a poor 244th in the nation in A/FGM ratio at 48.5%.
That weakness even showed in the upset of Ohio State, with the team totaling only 10 assists in a game where they scored 91 points against 11 turnovers.
We feel the story of this game will be a big turnover advantage for Mississippi State, that should only be enhanced by one of the most hostile environments in the nation for visiting teams. We are giving the moderate points with the Bulldogs over the Panthers.
Predicted Score: Mississippi State 81 – Pittsburgh 70
NCAAF Pick: Mississippi State -5.5 (-110) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
