NCAAB Best Bets for December 7: Pittsburgh Will Show No Mercy
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Rainman M.
- December 7, 2024
Top NCAAB Pick: Pittsburgh -8.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Get ready for Saturday’s college basketball site as we take a look at the available betting odds to find our top picks of the day!
Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Nebraska vs. Michigan State and Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech, so don’t miss out.
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Michigan State Spartans
Saturday, December 07, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Breslin Center
The Angle
Michigan State has lost two games so far. Both of its losses came against teams that do a solid job of protecting the basket.
Nebraska is one of the best teams at limiting points around the basket: the Cornhuskers allow shots at the rim with the fourth-lowest frequency.
As such, they are the type of team that can be relied upon to defeat Michigan State.
Nebraska’s Rim-Protecting Defense
On defense, Nebraska will protect the basket even at the expense of conceding three-point attempts.
One thing that Nebraska does is position a defender to roam the space around the basket.In the beginning of its game against Bethune-Cookman, for example, power forward Juwan Gary leaves his man to help a teammate contain the dribble penetration of an opposing ball-handler. Gary is moving from spot to spot in order to cut off that ball-handler’s path to the basket, thus deterring the latter from attempting a shot at the rim.
On ball-screens, moreover, Nebraska will hedge in order to prevent the opposing offense from using a screen to give its ball-handler a path to the basket. When the offense gets the ball into the post, the Cornhuskers are also inclined to double-team the post player, which compels him to pass the ball back outside of the perimeter.
You can find an example of these last two things taking place with 14 minutes left in the second half of Nebraska’s game against Bethune-Cookman.
For the above reasons, Nebraska allows three-point attempts with one of the nation’s highest frequencies, whereas it is one of the toughest teams to drive on or to otherwise score at the basket.
Outlook for Michigan State’s Offense
Michigan State has just the sort of offense that will struggle against a defense like Nebraska’s. This is because the Cornhuskers force opposing offenses to shoot three-pointers and the Spartans do not want to shoot three-pointers.
Michigan State attempts three-pointers with the 297th-highest frequency.
The Spartans are one of the nation’s worst teams at making three-point attempts. Of the four players who have attempted over 25 three-pointers, not a single one owns a three-point percentage better than 27.
Compared to the teams that Michigan State has lost to — the Spartans mustered 69 points in their loss to Kansas and 63 points in their loss to Memphis — Nebraska does the best job of protecting the rim and therefore poses the toughest challenge for Michigan State’s offense.
Nebraska’s Offense
On offense, the Cornhuskers have found their stride. Since their second game, they have scored at least 74 points in every game even despite facing Saint Mary’s and Creighton whom they upset on the road.
Nebraska ranked 32nd in offensive efficiency last year but lost a key player in Keisei Tominaga. Connor Essegian, a transfer from Wisconsin, is doing an admirable job replacing him.
Essegian’s off-ball movement, efficient three-point shooting, and ability to use his shooting as a weapon by pump-faking and attacking the basket make him an effective piece on offense.
Whereas the Cornhuskers relied heavily on Tominaga last year, they are having more players assume greater roles, such as the slasher Brice Williams, who is also a strong shooter and who does a great job of getting to the free-throw line.
This Nebraska offense already looks well-proven against tough defenses, and it’s a group that can score a lot in different ways.
The Pick
70 points will be more than enough for the Cornhuskers to win. It is a consistent and versatile offensive group that will outscore a Michigan State team that will struggle with its lack of shooting against Nebraska’s rim-protecting defense.
NCAAB Pick: Nebraska +6 (-110) at BookMaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
Saturday, December 07, 2024 – 02:00 PM ET at Cassell Coliseum
Should Pittsburgh’s Last Game Concern Us?
Pittsburgh is coming off a blowout loss to Mississippi State.
That game, though, does not create concern for Pittsburgh’s outlook on Saturday because Mississippi State is too different from Pittsburgh’s Saturday opponent.
Mississippi State has a high-caliber offense. High-caliber offenses, defined as offenses that rank top-30 in offensive efficiency, have thrived against the Panthers. Virginia Tech’s offense, though, is anything but high-caliber.
Virginia Tech’s Weak Offense
The Hokies rank 202nd in offensive efficiency. They have struggled to reach 60 points despite facing low-profile teams like Jacksonville. For several reasons, they are one of the worst teams at avoiding turnovers.
Their guard play is a tremendous source of their turnovers. Guards are supposed to be a stabilizing source of offense in that they are supposed to help an offense execute by handling the ball.
Virginia Tech lacks reliable ball-handlers who can drive the ball without turning it over. Especially their point guard, Brandon Rechsteiner, has a high turnover rate.
The Hokies, even if they don’t turn it over, struggle to win one-on-one battles inside. Hence, video footage shows their inclination to kick the ball back outside where they’ll heave a three-point attempt because they lack other options.
The Jacksonville Game
In the beginning of Virginia Tech’s game against Jacksonville, it looked dynamic enough in the half-court. But the Hokies lost the game by ten because their offense was shut down in the second half when Jacksonville turned up its intensity on defense.
Jacksonville pressed and applied other forms of on-ball pressure in order to flummox the Hokies’ offense.
Toibu Lawal, in that game and in general, has looked like one of Virginia Tech’s top iso scoring options, but he’s playing fewer minutes in large part due to his turnover problem — against Jacksonville, for example, he dribbled the ball off his foot.
When the Hokies do manage to pass the ball around without turning it over, they like to spread things out and shoot three-pointers. However, they lack guys who can make shots. Their three-point conversion rate sits at just over 30 percent.
Outlook for Pittsburgh’s Defense
Whereas Mississippi State used its shot-creating guards and its individual talent in the interior to thrive against Pittsburgh’s defense, Virginia Tech’s offense lacks the guard play and iso scoring talent to develop a rhythm.
The Panthers do have a very good defense overall, one that ranks 44th in efficiency and gets a lot of steals. For example, they held a West Virginia offense, that is much stronger than Virginia Tech, to 62 points.
Video footage shows their strong organization on defense. They coordinate effectively, communicating well on ball screens. Their rim protection is solid as they are tough to score on inside with multiple well-sized players who reliably go up vertically and defend without fouling. While they are tough to score on inside, they also do a good job of recovering back to the perimeter.
You can see an example of all this play out just over a minute into their game against West Virginia.
Pittsburgh’s Offense Will Regain its Power
Virginia Tech has allowed 75+ points to all top 50 offenses that it’s faced so far and allowed at least 80 points to two of them.
Its outlook is poor against a Pittsburgh offense that has feasted on soft competition, scoring over 80 points in every game in which it was favored by at least five points.
In Virginia Tech’s games, it’s clear to see that its ball-screen defense leaves easily exploitable gaps. The Hokies will often have a player out of position, allowing teams to make easy passes to open players inside or outside the arc.
Pittsburgh will use especially the ball-handling of point guard Jaland Lowe, who has a nasty crossover move, to work the spaces afforded to him by Virginia Tech’s defense, to weave inside and outside the paint in order to distribute the ball to teammates in a favorable position to score.
The Pick
This is a great “get right” game for Pittsburgh, which will bounce back by returning to its dominating ways against softer competition.
The Hokies are very much a young team trying to figure things out, and they need a lot of help on both sides of the ball.
Pittsburgh, which ranks 270 spots higher in D-I experience, brings a more seasoned and veteran group that will use pressure and superior ball-handling to run away from the Hokies.
NCAAB Pick: Pittsburgh -8.5 (-110) at Bovada
