NCAAB Best Bets for February 12: Demon Deacons to Chop Down Seminoles
-
LT Profits
- February 12, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Wake Forest -7 (-106) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We had another winning 2-1 night in NCAA Basketball on Tuesday, leaving us at 35-25-3 for a solid 58.3% in our last 63 college hoop plays. We are now back for a nice Wednesday card that has 37 games on the main board, many of which involve major conferences.
We have keyed in on three plays for Wednesday based mostly on our proprietary model, comprised of two sides and one total, that we feel hold value at the current betting odds. All three of our selections tonight hail from major conferences with two from the SEC and one from the ACC.
Florida State Seminoles vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Wednesday, February 12, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at LJVM Coliseum
In a game that means a lot for the NCAA Tournament hopes for Wake Forest, we are looking for the Demon Deacons to prevail comfortably at home in Winston-Salem on Wednesday hosting Florida State.
Must Win Winnable Games
Wake comes in at 18-6 overall while riding a 3-game winning streak to improve to 10-3 in the ACC, leaving them tied for fourth in the conference with SMU. The significance of that tie is that Joe Lunardi currently has Wake Forest as one of the Last Four In for the Big Dance and SMU as one of the First Four Out. That would mean the Demon Deacons cannot afford to lose winnable games down the stretch.
Well, this is obviously a winnable game with Deacons favored by about seven points. And what is impressive about the current winning streak is the last two wins came on the road on the west coast, a new trip this season for ACC teams. Wake was not fazed at all though, winning 79-73 at Stanford and 76-66 at California.
They now return home where they are 11-1 this season, losing only to Kenpom #2 Duke in a game where they still held the Blue Devils to a season-low 63 points. That Wake defense is currently ranked 26th in the country in efficiency and 21st in eFG% allowed and should have no trouble containing a struggling FSU offense.
Also, the Demon Deacons’ home-court advantage in Joel Coliseum is rated as the fifth-best in the country per Kenpom at +4.2 points.
How Will They Score?
Florida State was once on the tournament bubble when that sat at 13-5, but they then lost four straight games before snapping that streak at home last game vs. disappointing Notre Dame. That leaves the Seminoles at 14=9 overall and with a losing 5-7 mark inside the ACC. More alarmingly, they are 1-6 on the road this season with the lone win coming against a Miami team that is dead last in the conference at 2-11.
The biggest issue for the Noles is shooting the basketball. This is a team that ranks 153rd in the nation in eFG%, ranking 123rd in 2-point shooting and a weak 243rd in 3-point shooting. Things do not figure to get any better tonight against a Wake Forest defense ranked 35th in 2-point defense and 29th in 3-point defense. That is especially true on the road, where FSU is averaging only 71.2 point while shooting a dismal 41.8% overall.
So, what we have here is a great home team with a very good defense that needs to win to keep NCAA Tournament hopes alive hosting a bad road team that cannot shoot. We are betting on Wake Forest as home favorites.
Predicted Score: Wake Forest 79 – Florida State 67
NCAAB Pick: Wake Forest -7 (-106) at Bookmaker
LSU Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Wednesday, February 12, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at Bud Walton Arena
We expect a higher-scoring game than the total implies in Fayetteville, so we are betting on the Over when Arkansas hosts LSU on Wednesday.
Scored 81 vs. Great Defense
Arkansas has all the motivation in this contest as Joe Lunardi currently has them as literally his First Team Out of the NCAA Tournament field. They enter this game with a 14-9 overall mark but just 3-7 in conference, yet they remain on the bubble thanks to their brutal SEC schedule so far. And remember that they began conference play 0-5, which means they are 3-2 in the last five games.
The best news for the Razorbacks has been their improved offense as of late, as they have scored at least 78 points in three straight games. Most impressively, they scored 81 points last game in a narrow 4-point loss to a 21-3 Alabama team ranked sixth overall in Kenpom, second in the AP Poll and first in the Coaches Poll.
They now take a huge drop in class facing an LSU team ranked 81st in Kenpom, and while the Tigers are a decent 60th in defensive efficiency, that ranking is still much worse than most of the defenses the Hogs have faced so far. And Arkansas will not face much pressure for a change with LSU only ranked 222nd in turnover percentage forced.
That has us believing that if Arkansas can score 81 vs. Alabama, scoring 85 points here is not much of a reach.
60s Good Enough for Over?
This has been a down season for LSU, as they come in only 12-11 overall and 1-9 in the SEC, ahead of only 0-10 South Carolina. They are ranked 111th in offensive efficiency, and besides the lack of defensive pressure mentioned earlier, they also allow teams many second chances by ranking 335th in defensive rebounding percentage.
Remember though that we project Arkansas to score in the mid-80s here, especially with more second chances than usual. With this posted total currently available at 146, that would mean that a score in the low to mid 60s by the Tigers would still be good enough to push this game Over. Well, as bad as LSU has been, they have scored at least 62 points in all but two games this season.
And there is also strong potential for late garbage points with Arkansas expected to build a big lead in this game.
This looks to us like a prime example where one team should do so much of the heavy lifting that it would not leave the opponent to do much to clear the total. With that in mind, we are backing the Over in Arkansas in this spot.
Predicted Score: Arkansas 85 – LSU 71
NCAAB Pick: Over 146 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Missouri Tigers
Wednesday, February 12, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at Mizzou Arena
We expect a bigger blowout than the overall Kenpom rankings may indicate Wednesday, as we expect Missouri to prevail comfortably at home in Columbia hosting Oklahoma in SEC play.
Height Advantage Helps
Mizzou has lost two straight games to enter at 17-6 overall and 6-4 in conference, leaving them still ranked a good 23rd in Kenpom. And to be fair, the two losses have come to Tennessee and Texas A&M, who are respectively ranked first and sixth in the country in defensive efficiency. That should make facing an Oklahoma defense ranked 69th in the country in efficiency feel like a walk in the park.
That should allow the Tigers to return to their good offensive form, and this is a squad ranked 13th in the nation in offensive efficiency and 24th in eFG%. They are solid from all points of the floor, ranking 32nd in 3-point shooting and 43rd in 2-point shooting, and their height advantage in this game should lead to many second chances. In fact, the overall Missouri roster ranks 36th in the land with an average height of 6’6.4”.
Poor Ball Protection
Oklahoma comes in at 16-7 and ranked 37th in Kenpom, but frankly that ranking seems undeserved to us. Yes, they went 13-0 during non-conference play with four wins over current Kenpom Top 100 teams, but they have since gone 3-7 in SEC play. More importantly, they have a couple of big stylistic disadvantages in this game.
The Sooners are a bad rebounding team in both ends of the court, ranking 258th in offensive rebounding percentage and a worse 307th defensively. Thus, we do not see a way for them to keep one of the tallest teams in the country off the glass on either end.
Also, Oklahoma has been terrible with ball protection ranking 219th in offensive turnover percentage. That makes this a nightmarish matchup against an aggressive Missouri defense ranked 29th in turnover percentage forced at 21.1% (national average 17.5%).
To top things off, a dissection of the Sooners’ conference record reveals that they are 0-7 against Kenpom Top 40 SEC teams with all three league wins coming against lower-ranked opponents.
So, all things considered, we think this is more of a mismatch than the closeness of these teams’ Kenpom ranks would suggest, especially with LSU yet to beat a team this good inside the SEC. Bet on Missouri to win by double-digits playing at home.
Predicted Score: Missouri 84 – Oklahoma 70
NCAAB Pick: Missouri -8.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
