NCAAB Best Bets for February 4: Bruins Conquer Spartans at Pauley Pavilion
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LT Profits
- February 4, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: UCLA -2.5 (-114) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We remain a solid 27-21-3, 56.3% in our last 51 plays despite a dismal night last Thursday, and we return Tuesday for a nice college card that brings us 33 games on the main board.
We are keen on three best bets as usual based mostly on our proprietary model, all of which are sides that we feel hold value at the top-rated sportsbooks. All three of our selections for Tuesday hail from major conferences, with one play each from the ACC, Big Ten, and Big 12.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Florida State Seminoles
Tuesday, February 04, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Tucker Center
In a battle between the 10th and 11th place teams in the ACC, we think that Florida State is better equipped in this matchup to snap their slump. We are backing the Seminoles as small home favorites over Notre Dame.
Size Matters
Florida State was off to a nice start this season, but they have now dropped four straight games to drop to 13-9 overall and to 11th in the ACC at 4-7, leaving them at 85th in Kenpom. Three of the four losses during this streak were on the road though, and they took Boston College down to the wire in a 77-76 loss Saturday at Chestnut Hill.
We think the enormous size advantage for the Seminoles will be a key factor in breaking their losing streak here. Four of their five starters are at least 6’7”, and they have an enormous inside presence on both ends of the court thanks to the 6’11” Malique Ewin and 6’10” Taylor Bol Bowen. In fact, the Noles are the third tallest team in the country overall with an average height of 6’7.3”!
This makes for a nice matchup offensively closer to the basket against a Notre Dame team that ranks 242nd in 2-point defense. Furthermore, they should be able to find those looks with the Fighting Irish applying no pressure, ranking 327th in turnover percentage forced.
Lots of Blocks Expected
Notre Dame was off to a promising start this season as they were 4-0 when their superstar guard Markus Burton got injured and missed nine games. And they have not been as fluid offensively since his return despite his best efforts, resulting in a losing 10-11 record overall while sitting at 10th in the conference at 4-6 and 82nd in Kenpom.
Yes, Burton has a great chance to earn All-ACC honors while averaging 20.1 points per game and leading the team in assists, but he has not gotten much help as of late. And he is a 6’0” player whose strength is driving to the basket, a tactic that can easily be taken away by the size of FSU.
You see that height for the Noles has been just as important on defense, where they are eighth in the nation in blocked shot percentage at 15.7% (national average 9.4%). Even worse, the smaller Fighting Irish team is 229th in getting shots blocked at 9.9%.
The Pick
All of this means that Notre Dame may need to be insanely hot from 3-point range tonight to generate enough offense to hang around. We are willing to bet against that happening consistently while giving the small spread with Florida State in Tallahassee.
Predicted Score: Florida State 78 – Notre Dame 69
NCAAB Pick: Florida State -2.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Michigan State Spartans vs. UCLA Bruins
Tuesday, February 04, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at Pauley Pavilion
UCLA has looked like a different team since their coach Mick Cronin called them “soft” following a 94-75 blowout loss here at home to Michigan on January 7th. Well, the team apparently got the message, and we are betting on the Bruins to continue their newfound winning ways on Tuesday hosting Michigan State.
Hot at Home
UCLA has now won five straight games to improve to 16-6 overall and they have moved up to a 3-way tie for fourth in the Big Ten at 7-4, as well as an impressive 27th ranking in Kenpom. They have accomplished that against a difficult schedule that includes three wins over teams in the Kenpom Top 15 in Arizona, Gonzaga and Wisconsin.
Moreover, the blowout loss to Michigan remains the Bruins’ only loss this season here at Pauley Pavilion, where they are 11-1 while averaging 83.8 points per game and a winning margin of +23.2 points! Their more recent home wins in the conference have included a 24-point win over Iowa and a 26-point win over Oregon this past Thursday where they held the Ducks to 52 points.
This team is playing their best defense in memory under Cronin ranking 18th in the country in defensive efficiency and fifth in turnover percentage forced. And they have had some extra time to prepare for this game having not played since that Oregon win.
Nothing Beyond the Arc
Now, take nothing away from Michigan State as they are 18-3 and had a 13-game winning streak snapped while suffering their first conference loss of the year 70-64 at USC on Saturday. They still top the Big Ten at 9-1 and are the higher ranked Kenpom team here at 17th.
However, all three of the Spartans’ losses this season have come away from home and the only team currently ranked higher than UCLA in Kenpom they have beaten on the road is 26th-ranked Ohio State. And remember, Ohio State has just recently started moving up the rankings and were not playing very well when Sparty beat them in Columbus.
That should make this Michigan State’s toughest road test of the year, and we think they will have a tough time keeping pace with a hot team in enemy territory without making a decent amount of three-pointers. We simply do not foresee that happening with the Spartans ranked a dismal 347th in 3-point shooting and the Bruins ranked 14th in 3-point defense.
The Pick
So, after starting Big Ten play at 9-0, we see this becoming a fruitless 0-2 trip to Los Angeles for Michigan State after the loss at USC, with UCLA coming away with another safe win at Pauley on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: UCLA 76 – Michigan State 68
NCAAB Pick: UCLA -2.5 (-114) at Bookmaker
Arizona Wildcats vs. BYU Cougars
Tuesday, February 04, 2025 – 11:00 PM ET at Marriott Center
In a nice late-night Big 12 battle on ESPN, we see BYU rising to the challenge at home and coming away with a handy win over Arizona.
Strong Home Court Advantage
BYU enters at 15-6 overall, tied for sixth in the conference at 6-4, and ranked 31st on Kenpom. However, the Cougars are totally different beasts here in Provo, where they own the ninth strongest home court advantage in the nation per Kenpom at a full +4.0 points.
They are 11-1 at the Marriott Center this season with the only loss coming to Texas Tech (#9 in Kenpom), the same Texas Tech team that just handed conference kingpin Houston their first home loss in two years on Saturday. These Cougars rank 16th in the country in offensive efficiency and eighth in eFG%, shooting well from all points of the floor ranking an excellent ninth in 2-point shooting and a very good 38th in 3-point shooting.
And keep in mind that those are their overall rankings, and they have been much better at home averaging a whopping 87.8 points with a winning margin of +24.4!
Lack of 3s Hurt
Now, we get that Arizona would represent BYU’s best win of the season with the Wildcats currently 12th in Kenpom, sitting at 15-6 overall and now tied with Houston atop the conference at 9-1. And the Cats are indeed a well-balanced team ranking 14th in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive efficiency.
However, as lofty as that offensive efficiency ranking is, Arizona is only 80th in eFG%, with the efficiency receiving a boost from ranking 23rd in offensive rebounding percentage. The problem with that here is the usual edge in second chances gets neutralized by BYU ranking an outstanding sixth in defensive rebounding percentage.
Furthermore, the Wildcats are a poor 3-point shooting team ranking 232nd at only 32.6%, which would make it hard to keep up if BYU goes on one of their patented scoring runs at home.
The Pick
The combination of BYU’s massive home court advantage, Arizona not expected to get as many second chances as usual and the Wildcats’ poor 3-point shooting has us betting on the Cougars at home in what should be a raucous environment.
Predicted Score: BYU 81 – Arizona 74
NCAAB Pick: BYU -1.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
