NCAAB Best Bets for December 10: Wolverines To Celebrate in Jimmy V Classic
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LT Profits
- December 10, 2024
NCAAB Pick: Michigan -4 (-103) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We are coming off a nice 5-1 week in NCAA Basketball, highlighted by a 3-0 sweep last Wednesday at the top-rated sportsbooks.
We now return to a relatively small Tuesday card that brings us 18 games on the main board, although the slate does include several good matchups. We are here with three best bets based mostly on our proprietary model comprised of two sides and one total that we feel all hold value at the current betting odds.
Rhode Island Rams vs. Brown Bears Odds
Tuesday, December 10, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Pizzitola Sports Center
We anticipate lots of scoring in an in-state rivalry Tuesday when Rhode Island out of the Atlantic 10 pays a visit to Brown from the Ivy League in Providence.
Won Despite Season-low
Rhode Island is a perfect 9-0 to begin the season with their last two wins coming against Kenpom Top 100 teams. And they won their last game despite being held below 81 points for the first time all year. That 69-63 triumph was against a Providence team ranked 80th overall and 73rd in defensive efficiency though. Now, they are dropping down, facing a Brown team ranked 191st overall and a poor 245th in defensive efficiency.
Thus, we expect the Rams to return to the form that has them seventh in the country in scoring at a whopping 87.3 points per game. They combine excellent shooting (29th in eFG%) with a fast pace, ranking 26th in Tempo Rating, a combination that should and has produced their nice scoring output.
The one URI weakness has been ranking 219th in offensive rebounding percentage, but that gets offset here by Brown ranking 243rd in defensive rebounding, so the Rams may get more second chances than usual.
Shoot Lots of 3s
The Bears come in at 6-3, having won five straight games following a 1-3 start.
They are still defending poorly as mentioned earlier, but their offense has carried them to the 5-game streak scoring at least 76 points in four of the five wins. The one exception was a 60-53 win against Vermont in a game played at a snail’s pace of 57 possessions. That is not a concern against a running team like Rhode Island.
Brown ranks a decent 61st in eFG% and shoots an above-average 36.3% from beyond the 3-point arc (national average 33.2%). The key there however has been volume, as 43.6% of their field goal attempts had been 3-pointers (national average 39.5%) and 36.6% of their points have come from beyond the arc (average 31.5%).
The Pick
We expect the Rhode Island offense to continue to shine against a weak defense and Brown to make enough 3-pointers to hang around. This has us betting on the Over in this spot.
Predicted Score: Rhode Island 84 – Brown 75
NCAAB Pick: Rhode Island/Brown Over 149.5 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Tuesday, December 10, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at State Farm Center
In what may look like the best Big Ten Conference matchup of the night on paper, we think that Illinois will have an easier time than the line implies as we are betting on a handy win over Wisconsin.
Look to Rebound from Upset Loss
Illinois should be in an ornery mood for their second conference game, returning home after getting upset 70-66 in overtime on the road at Northwestern in their Big Ten opener Friday. The defense did its part, limiting the Wildcats to 56 points in regulation time, but the offense uncharacteristically shot just 9-for-34, 26.5% from 3-point range.
We expect a return to normalcy here at home for a Fighting Illini team ranked 28th in offensive efficiency. But their biggest edge here is on the defensive end, where they rank 17th in efficiency and lead the nation in eFG% allowed at a scant 40.6%.
Illinois is staunch at all points of the floor, ranking fifth in 3-point defense and 12th in 2-point defense, and they do not allow second chances either at ninth in defensive rebounding.
Facing Another Great Defense
Wisconsin began the year 8-0 before losing their last two games. What is glaring, however, is the losses came once the competition got tougher, as they were against Michigan (22nd at Kenpom) at home and Marquette (10th) on the road. They are now on the road again facing an Illinois team ranked 16th.
And while we get that the Badgers are 19th nationally in offensive efficiency, they are a less impressive 95th in eFG%. Furthermore, they are coming off their two lowest-scoring outputs of the season at 64 and 74 points respectively, again as the competition became tougher.
Well, things should not get any easier offensively now facing the nation’s leader in eFG% allowed!
THE PICK
The bottom line here is we expect a rebound effort from an Illinois offense that is much better than it showed in Northwestern, while Wisconsin should continue to struggle against another great defense.
Lay the point here as we expect a double-digit Illinois victory at home.
Predicted Score: Illinois 84 – Wisconsin 71
NCAAB Pick: Illinois -6.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Michigan Wolverines vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Odds
Tuesday, December 10, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Madison Square Garden
We have a nice matchup in the nightcap of the Jimmy V Classic on Tuesday, and we are supporting Michigan to upend Arkansas at historic Madison Square Garden in New York City.
Solid on Both Ends
We have had the misfortune of betting against Michigan several times already this season with bad results. They are up to 22nd overall on Kenpom despite remaining unranked in the AP Poll after beginning the season ranked 36th. Despite still committing too many turnovers to our liking, this is a team that has been very efficient on both sides of the court while facing a good schedule.
The Wolverines have overcome an ugly 335th ranking in turnover percentage to still rank a good 43rd in offensive efficiency at 114.9 points per 100 possessions. They have done that with great shooting ranking 22nd in eFG%, and while they are above average in 3-point shooting at 35.2%, they have been practically unstoppable closer to the basket ranking ninth in 2-point shooting at a blazing 60.7%.
And then there is the great Michigan defense ranked 11th in efficiency and eighth in eFG% allowed. Furthermore, they have done this against good competition with four wins coming against Kenpom Top 100 teams. Their last two conquests in 37th-ranked Wisconsin (on the road) and 46th-ranked Iowa are quite comparable to their 45th-ranked Arkansas opponent here.
Who They Beat?
Frankly, we somewhat question that ranking for the 7-2 Razorbacks. Their two best wins were against teams barely in the Kenpom Top 100 (96th and 100th respectively) while they lost both times that they stepped up in class against 16th-ranked Illinois and 17th-ranked Baylor, with Michigan now ranked close behind those opponents.
Scheduling differences aside, Arkansas also grades well on both ends in efficiency, ranking 75th offensively and 19th defensively. However, those ranks are still lower than Michigan and against weaker competition overall. Moreover, Arkansas likes to play inside ranking 237th in 3PA/FGA ratio, but that plays right into the Wolverines’ strength as they rank eighth in two-point defense.
THE PICK
We simply feel Michigan is the better team at both ends right now, even with their turnover concerns. Add in beating better teams along the way and we are betting on the Wolverines to cover at MSG.
Predicted Score: Michigan 79 – Arkansas 69
NCAAB Pick: Michigan -4 (-103) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
