NCAAB Best Bets for December 11: Miners and Cardinals Fly Over Total
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LT Profits
- December 11, 2024
Top NCAAB Pick: UTEP/Louisville Over 143.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We enter the Wednesday card 6-3 in our last nine NCAA Basketball plays, and this slate is light in volume with only nine games on the main board and lacking in big-name schools. But sometimes, these games offer the best value at the top-rated sportsbooks.
We have indeed identified three best bets based mostly on our proprietary model comprised of two totals and one side that we feel all hold value at the current betting odds.
UTEP Miners vs. Louisville Cardinals
Wednesday, December 11, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at KFC Yum! Center
While Louisville and UTEP score points in opposite ways, we think that both will be offensively successful in their own manner Wednesday, resulting in an Over.
Inside Domination?
Louisville is the power conference team here out of the ACC although they are only 5-4 and losers of three straight. However, the four losses have all come to teams in the Kenpom Top 50 including currently #2 Tennessee and most recently #3 Duke! That leaves Louisville at a commendable #56 overall despite the mediocre record, and they are plummeting in class taking on the #147 Miners here at home.
Now, we totally get that the Cardinals have struggled mightily from the perimeter tanking 320th nationally in 3-point shooting, but the daunting schedule thus far could be a factor there. They now get a chance to hit more 3s than usual against a 349th-ranked UTEP 3-point defense.
But Louisville should be able to dominate and rack up points inside the arc tonight. That is because they are 20th in the country in 2-point shooting at a blazing 58.9%, and again, that has come against some of the best defenses in the nation. Meanwhile, UTEP is an underwhelming 136th in 2-pount defense.
Sharpshooting Beyond the Arc
The Miners are 6-2 to begin the season and, coming out of Conference USA, this game probably means more to them with a chance to knock off a power conference school. And while we feel an upset is unlikely, they do have the 3-point shooting to make things interesting, at the very least helping to contribute to the Over here.
You see, while we expect Louisville to dominate inside, we are looking for the opposite from UTEP with much of their points coming from beyond the arc. This is a team ranked 50th in 3-point shooting at 37.7% (national average 33.2%), while Louisville is an ordinary 173rd defending the perimeter.
THE PICK
In the end, we expect the class edge of Louisville to lead to a rather safe victory. However, the ability of UTUP to shoot well from 3-point land is making the Over our official pick for a game where we see the squads reaching 150 points.
Predicted Score: Louisville 80 – UTEP 70
NCAAB Pick: UTEP/Louisville Over 143.5 (-115) at BetOnline
Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Wright State Raiders
Wednesday, December 11, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Nutter Center
Wright State has one of the more underrated offenses in the country, while Marshall should be able to create good looks against a passive defense. That combination has us betting the Over in Fairborn on Wednesday.
Top 35 in eFG%
Homestanding Wright State comes out of the Horizon League, so they do not get much national publicity for having one of the better offenses in the country. Yes, they have not faced much with their best win coming over a Princeton team ranked 115th on Kenpom, but that still holds true tonight with their opponents from Marshall ranked 172nd.
The Raiders rank 35th nationally in eFG% while shooting well from all points on the floor. They are ranked 25th in 3-point shooting at 39.0% while also making a very good 54.6% of their 2-point shots (national average 50.9%). Yet, they are only 6-5 for the season, and as you may have guessed, that is due to being an offense-first team that ranks just 267th in eFG% allowed defensively.
That does usually make Wright State a prime Over target though, and tonight is no exception.
Unabated Offense
Marshall is also one game over .500 at 5-4 while coming out of the Sun Belt Conference. And they too have shown the ability to score if you ignore their one game where they scored 45 points while having no chance at Purdue. They scored at least 77 points in all their other games before scoring 69 in a loss at a 7-2 NC Wilmington team on Saturday.
The strength of the Thundering Herd is scoring closer to the basket, where their 55.2% 2-point percentage is better than that of Wright State. They even shot 12-for-21, 57.1% from 2-point range against Purdue! And they should be able to set up those good looks again tonight rather unabated against a passive Wright State defense that applies no pressure, ranking 328th in turnover percentage forced.
THE PICK
While we project this final score to be right around the current point spread, we do think this posted total is a bit light. So, we are backing the Over in a game where we see paths to success for both offenses.
Predicted Score: Wright State 82 – Marshall 78
NCAAB Pick: Marshall/Wright State Over 152 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Milwaukee Panthers vs. Green Bay Phoenix
Wednesday, December 11, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Resch Center
We anticipate a closer game than the records of these two teams suggest in this Battle of Wisconsin, which is also serving as the Horizon League opener for both schools. We are taking the points with Green Bay at home hosting Milwaukee.
Not Worth This Much Favoritism?
Milwaukee comes in at 6-4, and frankly, we question them being a decided favorite on the road against an in-state rival. They have beaten nobody with their best win based on Kenpom coming against 152nd-ranked Wofford, and they have glaring flaws on both ends of the court.
On offense, the Panthers are not a great shooting team ranking 176th in eFG%, and they are very sloppy with the basketball ranking 303rd in turnover percentage at 20.2% (national average 17.8%). On defense, they are 233rd in efficiency and 228th in eFG% allowed. And keep in mind all that has come against a modest non-conference schedule that has included just one team in the Kenpom Top 100 in # 81 UCF.
Better Overall Shooting
Of course, the main reason that Green Bay is a home underdog here is their 2-8 record. But at least they scheduled three Kenpom Top 100 teams out of conference, and besides an expected blowout loss at Ohio State, they were relatively competitive losing by 13 points to Oklahoma State and 14 points to Providence.
And despite the 2-8 mark, it is the Phoenix that is the better shooting team here, ranking 86th in eFG% and 57th in 2-point shooting at 56.1%. They are also slightly above average in 3-point shooting at 34.1% and they excel at the foul line, ranking 12th in free throw shooting at 80.2%.
THE PICK
We would be not at all shocked if Green Bay pulled the outright upset in this conference opener, but in any event, we do see a nip-and-tuck battle until the final buzzer. Thus, we are betting on the Phoenix as home underdogs against a vulnerable Milwaukee opponent.
Predicted Score: Wisc. Milwaukee 78 – Wisc. Green Bay 77
NCAAB Pick: Green Bay +6.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
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