NCAAB Best Bets for December 17: Gators To Chomp on Tar Heels
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LT Profits
- December 17, 2024
Top NCAAB Pick: Florida -3.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We are now 8-4 in our last 12 NCAA Basketball plays after another winning night last Wednesday, going 2-1. We begin a new week on a Tuesday slate that has 26 games on the main board.
We have identified three best bets based mostly on our proprietary model comprised of two totals and one side that we feel all hold value at the top-rated sportsbooks. Our plays are highlighted by probably the best matchup of the night (on paper) with North Carolina taking on Florida.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Florida Gators
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center
We have a marquee matchup in Charlotte on Tuesday, although we see a larger victory than the spread suggests. We are backing Florida as a small favorite facing North Carolina.
Excellent Both Ends
Florida is a perfect 10-0 and ranked an identical seventh in the country overall both in Kenpom and the AP Poll. This looks like a team with no discernible weaknesses on either end of the court, and they have won every game by at least 13 points with the closest being 87-74 on the road at Florida State.
Offensively, the Gators rank seventh in efficiency while excelling closer to the basket ranking 30th in 2-point shooting at 58.3%. They get those great inside looks by protecting the ball well, ranking 37th in turnover percentage at only 14.5% (national average 17.8%). Furthermore, they also generate many second chances by ranking 10th in offensive rebounding percentage at an impressive 40.2%. To top things off, they are also 22nd in defensive efficiency and 10th in eFG% allowed.
Just about the only area that Florida has not been excellent in is 3-point shooting. But even there, they are slightly above average at 33.6% (average 33.3%) and are facing a North Carolina defense ranked 219th in 3-point defense.
Passive Defense and Lack of Second Chances
The Tar Heels are only 6-4, but kudos to them for facing the 10th toughest non-conference schedule in the nation per Kenpom. In fact, all four losses have come to teams ranked 17th or better!
The flip side of that though is that they have yet to beat an elite team, and Florida falls into that category also. Sure, they will be playing in front of a mostly partisan crowd on this “neutral” court in Charlotte, but that did not help when losing a true home game to an Alabama team ranked eighth on Kenpom, making them comparable to the Gators.
And worst of all, North Carolina’s weaknesses match up terribly with Florida’s strengths. While Florida protects the ball well, UNC does not apply much pressure ranking 303rd in turnover percentage forced. Also, while the Gators get many second chances, the Tar Heels get hardly any ranking 226th in offensive rebounding.
The Pick
Even in a semi-road game for the Gators, we feel that those huge edges in second chances and turnovers are enough to comfortably remain undefeated. We are betting on Florida as modest favorites in this spot.
Predicted Score: Florida 86 – North Carolina 77
NCAAB Pick: Florida -3.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
UNLV Runnin’ Rebels vs. Dayton Flyers
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at UD Arena
We are looking for a lot of scoring in this non-conference battle in Dayton on Tuesday. Thus, we are betting on the Over when the Flyers out of the Atlantic 10 host UNLV from the Mountain West Conference.
Great Ball Protection
Dayton is 9-2 with the two losses both being close against top competition, as they fell 89-84 to an Iowa State team currently ranked fifth on Kenpom and 92-90 to 28th-ranked North Carolina. As you see by those scores, the offense did its part against upper-echelon teams, and the opponents from UNLV here are not in that category ranking 113th overall.
The Flyers are ranked 26th overall and 10th in offensive efficiency thanks to excellent backcourt play. They are led by shooting guard Enoch Cheeks with 15.8 points per game while point guard Malachi Smith is averaging 11.1 points and 6.0 assists.
The biggest strength for Smith though has been masterfully directing the offense, with Dayton ranking seventh in the country in turnover percentage at a mere 13.1% (national average 17.8%). He has also facilitated great looks for his teammates, resulting in the team ranking 24th in eFG%, and we can easily see the Flyers putting up 80 points here.
3-Pointers Help
Now, we fully admit that the 5-4 record for UNLV is rather fraudulent since their five wins were all against teams ranked 200th or worse on Kenpom while they are 0-4 against Top 100 teams. However, with Dayton doing the heavy lifting and this posted total in the low 140s, the Rebels may only need to score in the low to mid-60s to clear this Over.
That certainly seems attainable for a team that has shot well beyond the 3-point arc regardless of the opponent, with UNLV ranked 46th from downtown at 37.9%. They have only been held below 65 points twice this season and they are facing a Dayton defense here ranked a nondescript 137th in eFG% allowed and 110th in 3-point defense.
The Pick
Dayton is clearly the better team in this game, and they should continue to succeed offensively. But UNLV does have the 3-point shooters to hang around a bit, making the Over our official play at Dayton Arena.
Predicted Score: Dayton 81 – UNLV 70
NCAAB Pick: UNLV/Dayton Over 141 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
UC San Diego Tritons vs. Utah State Aggies
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Dee Glen Smith Spectrum
Utah State has put up some big scores this season while UC San Diego is tied with the Aggies in eFG%. This has us backing the Over in Logan on Tuesday.
10th in Country in Scoring
Utah State comes in at a perfect 10-0, although they remain unranked in the polls and only 46th in Kenpom mainly due to a 256th-ranked (per Kenpom) non-conference schedule. Nonetheless, they do have three Top 100 wins with the best coming against 45th-ranked Iowa, and they have proven they can score on anyone.
Even taking out the 117 points the Aggies scored over a subdivision opponent, they are ranked 10th in the country in scoring at 87.6 points per game against their nine Division I foes. They are 43rd in offensive efficiency, but rather surprisingly only 95th in eFG%, although still well above average at 53.2% (national average 50.6%).
They make up for that lower ranking with lots of volume, generating many second chances by ranking second nationally in offensive rebounding percentage at an incredible 42.3%.
Thou Shalt Not Steal
Do not discount the UC San Diego offense in this game either. They come in at 9-2 themselves, and one of the two losses was by just five points on the road at 43rd-ranked San Diego State. They are averaging 78.7 points against a comparable non-conference schedule as Utah State (258th).
As mentioned, the Tritons are tied with the Aggies in eFG% at 53.2%, and that rate is fueled by being the better 3-point shooting team here at 35.6%. Moreover, UCSD excels in ball protection, ranking 12th in turnover percentage and an even better sixth in offensive steals percentage (i.e., having the ball stolen). Thus, when not turning the ball over by other means, they have been able to run their offense basically unhindered.
The Pick
In the end, we think Utah State will remain undefeated by again breaking into the 80s on the scoreboard. But we also expect San Diego to approach their season average with a lack of turnovers, resulting in what we feel will be a safe Over at the Dee Glen Smith Spectrum.
Predicted Score: Utah State 84 – UC San Diego 77
NCAAB Pick: UC San Diego/Utah State Over 150.5 (-108) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
