NCAAB Best Bets for December 18: Los Lobos To Howl Past Rams
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LT Profits
- December 18, 2024
Top NCAAB Pick: New Mexico -2.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We are now 9-6, 60.0% in our last 15 NCAA Basketball plays at the top-rated sportsbooks, and we return for a decent-sized Wednesday slate that has 33 games on the main board.
We have identified three best bets based mostly on our proprietary model, all three of which are sides that we feel hold value at the current betting odds. We are betting on three favorites that we all expect to take full advantage of playing at home.
Virginia Commonwealth Rams vs. New Mexico Lobos
Wednesday, December 18, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at The Pit
This looks like a terrible situational spot for VCU, who are playing their first true road game of the season while visiting one of the best home teams in the nation in New Mexico. We are giving the points with the Lobos playing in The Pit.
Great Home Court Advantage
New Mexico comes in at 8-3, with none of the three losses being considered “bad”. They lost on the road across the country at St. John’s, by three points to Arizona State at a neutral site and in overtime to rival New Mexico State. Plus, let us not forget the Lobos always elevate their level when playing at The Pit, owning the fourth best home court advantage in the country per Kenpom at +4.3 points.
This is a well-balanced team ranking 69th in offensive efficiency and nicely above average in defensive efficiency at 102.2 points per 100 possessions against (national average 106.5). The Lobos cause a lot of havoc defensively, ranking 20th in turnover percentage forced and 13th in blocked-shot percentage, and their offense often feeds off of that in transition, especially in this raucous home environment.
First True Road Game
Granted, VCU has been impressive going 9-2 with each loss being by only three points against Nevada and Seton Hall, with the latter in overtime. However, now 11 games into the season, this is their first true road game, which would be a tough situation even under normal circumstances. This is exponentially tougher than “normal” with that first roadie being across the nation at one of the most hostile environments in the land for visitors.
Perhaps worst of all, the biggest weakness for the Rams has been turning the ball over! We have already discussed how much havoc the New Mexico defense creates when playing in this building. Well, we think that has VCU walking into a buzzsaw given that they rank 214th nationally in turnover percentage.
The Pick
While VCU is an upper-echelon team in the Atlantic 10 Conference, we simply feel this situation will be a bit too much for them. We are laying the small spot with New Mexico at home.
Predicted Score: New Mexico 81 – VCU 73
NCAAB Pick: New Mexico -2.5 (-110) at Bovada
Cal State Northridge Matadors vs. USC Trojans
Wednesday, December 18, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Galen Center
We very rarely bet on double-digit favorites, but we actually feel this spread is a tad light even in the 11-point range. We are looking for a bigger win than that by USC at home when they host CS Northridge on Wednesday.
Feasting at Home
The Trojans may be a nondescript 7-4 overall, but they have been a different beast here at home so far. They have exceeded 80 points in four of their last five games at the Galen Center, and the only time they did not was against an Oregon team ranked 20th overall and 28th in defensive efficiency per Kenpom.
They face no such rival here with Northridge ranked 156th overall and 131st in defensive efficiency. And let us not sleep on a USC defense that is allowing just 69.2 points per game in this building and that ranks a commendable 85th in defensive efficiency overall at 101.5 points per 100 possessions.
The Trojans also force turnovers at a 19.4% rate (national average 17.8%), and they should take full advantage of the sloppy CSUN ball handling.
Free Throws Matter
The Matadors are a rather surprising 7-3, but they have faced just one team in the Kenpom Top 100 prior to USC, and that was a 70-56 loss to St. Bonaventure. Furthermore, besides not beating anyone, Northridge already has two bad losses to 211th-ranked Montana on the road and 179th-ranked UC Riverside at home.
They now step up in class while going on the road with an offense ranked 226th in turnover percentage at 18.6%, playing right into a defensive strength for USC.
It is also noteworthy that the Matadors have an undesirable combination of not shooting free throws well while also committing a lot of fouls defensively. They rank 222nd in foul shooting at a mere 69.9% while simultaneously sending opponents to the line a lot ranking 356th in FTA/FGA ratio at a whopping 47.1%.
The Pick
This is a rare case where we have no qualms about laying low double-digits, so we are doing so with USC in a game where we foresee them winning by nearly 20 points.
Predicted Score: USC 86 – CS Northridge 68
NCAAB Pick: USC -11 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Washington State Cougars vs. Washington Huskies
Wednesday, December 18, 2024 – 11:00 PM ET at Alaska Airlines Arena
Two former Pac-12 rivals meet for the only time this season Wednesday in Seattle, and we are looking for Washington to cover this short number at home against in-state rival Washington State.
Week to Prepare
The reason this is the lone meeting is that these teams now hail from different conferences. The Huskies are in the undeniably better conference overall in the Big Ten, while State resides in the top-heavy WCC (land of Gonzaga). However, it is State that is currently higher ranked in Kenpom at 72nd while Washington is down in 103rd.
Nonetheless, the Huskies have had over a week to prepare for this matchup having last played on December 10th. That contest was probably their most complete game of the season, an 87-68 dismantling of Eastern Washington.
Yes, Washington enters at 7-3 but that is entirely due to their good defense. They had not shot the ball well prior to that last game, currently still ranking 250th in eFG%. Despite that abysmal shooting, they are slightly above average in efficiency at 107.3 points per 100 possessions (national average 106.5).
They did shoot 60.0% from 3-point land (9-for-15) and 52.6% inside the arc in that last win though, and we look for them to build on that with the extra preparation for their longtime rival.
Sloppy Ball Handling
Now, the Cougars have indeed played well for the most part coming in at 9-2. And the two losses were both against Kenpom Top 40 teams (Iowa, SMU) on neutral floors. This here is a true road game though, and we feel Washington has more incentive in their first season in the Big Ten, wanting to show they belong.
And despite the fine record, State has been very sloppy with the ball ranking 301st in turnover percentage at an ugly 20.1% (national average 17.8%). Look for the Washington defense to exploit that, especially having had a week to scheme for the Cougars’ offense.
THE PICK
In the end, while Washington State is ranked 31 spots higher in Kenpom, we feel this situation with Washington having a week off, coming from the stronger conference and playing at home favors Washington. Bet the Cougars as small favorites.
Predicted Score: Washington 79 – Washington State 71
NCAAB Pick: Washington -2.5 (-115) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
