NCAAB Best Bets for December 3: Badgers Conquer Wolverines in Big Ten Opener
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LT Profits
- December 3, 2024
Top NCAAB Pick: Wisconsin -2.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Tuesday’s NCAA Basketball card brings us 33 games on the main board including some nice early conference openers. We are here with three best bets based mostly on our proprietary model comprised of two sides and one total that we feel all hold value at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Northern Kentucky Norse vs. Akron Zips Odds
Tuesday, December 03, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at James A. Rhodes Arena
Although this contest does not involve any major conference teams, we do see value in this total. We are looking for a high-scoring affair and are backing the Over when Northern Kentucky travels to MAC country to visit Akron.
Shooting Well Beyond the Arc
Akron is off to a 4-2 start and has won three straight games since losing on the road to a very good Saint Mary’s team that is ranked 33rd on Kenpom. Apparently, the Zips benefitted from that experience as they have put up 79, 92 and 97 points respectively in that order since the defeat.
Granted they have not beaten much during this streak in Lamar, Omaha and Alabama State, but their Northern Kentucky opponent tonight is only ranked 200th, so this is not much of a rise.
Akron’s recent offensive success has been keyed by shooting 36.7% beyond that 3-point arc (national average 33.0%), even going 13-for-28 from downtown in the loss against a stiff Saint Mary’s defense. They are now facing a Norse defense ranked a pitiful 334th in 3-point defense, so we look for the Zips’ scoring blitz to continue.
Tough Schedule So Far
Northern Kentucky comes in 2-5 and ranks 325th out of 364 Division I teams in scoring at a satanic 66.6 points per game. However, that should not be taken at face value as they have played a very ambitious schedule. Three of their losses were to power conference schools, with two of those in the Kenpom Top 15 in #9 Cincinnati and #14 Purdue and the third to 59th ranked Florida State, which ranks 26th in defensive efficiency.
Thus, it is not surprising that the Norse struggled offensively against those teams, and then showed out with a needed class drop, beating Bellarmine 86-70 on Saturday. Granted, we do not expect them to score 86 again here, but they are still better offensively than what they showed against three power juggernaut defenses.
Sadly though, the Northern Kentucky defensive issues are real as they allowed Bellarmine to shoot 38.7% from 3-point range and to make 54.5% of their 2-point shots.
The Pick
Thus, we expect Akron to get into the 80’s and the Norse to score more than their deceptive scoring average, leading us to bet on the Over in Ohio.
Predicted Score: Akron 83 – Northern Kentucky 75
NCAAB Pick: Akron/Northern Kentucky Over 143.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Georgia Bulldogs Odds
Tuesday, December 03, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Stegeman Coliseum
In a nice non-conference battle on paper in the ACC/SEC Challenge on Tuesday, we are betting on Georgia of the SEC to prevail safely at home hosting Notre Dame out of the ACC.
Better Defense
Georgia is off to a 7-1 start, losing only to a Marquette team ranked 11th overall on Kenpom. Yes, six of the seven wins came against teams ranked 108th or worse, but the seventh came two games ago against a very good St. John’s team ranked 21st, holding a team ranked 32nd in offensive efficiency to 65 points.
That helps validate the Bulldogs’ 41st ranking in defensive efficiency, and that defense can key a comfortable double-digit win here against a Notre Dame squad that is without its best player.
This is not to say the offense will not do its part as Georgia ranks 52nd in offensive efficiency at 113.1 per 100 possessions (national average 105.2) and 24th in eFG%. The knock against the Bulldogs is they make very few 3-pointers, but that is mainly because they do not shoot many, as they are making a commendable 35.7% when they do. But they do not need them when dominating inside, making 60.1% of their 2-pount shots.
No Burton Hurts
Notre Dame opened this season 4-0 while looking much improved offensively from the plodding team of last year. But they have since fallen off a cliff, dropping four straight games to fall to 4-4. The hot start was keyed by the play of an All-ACC candidate at point guard, Markus Burton, but he remains out since suffering a knee injury three games ago.
Unfortunately, the defense has not picked up the slack with Burton gone, applying virtually no pressure while ranking 328th nationally in turnover percentage forced. That is bad news against a Georgia offense that should thus be able to get the great 2-point looks it has been getting all season, and maybe even take more 3-pointers against a 210th-ranked Irish 3-point defense.
The Pick
So, Georgia clearly has the better defense here and the Notre Dame offense is not the same without its star point guard. While this spread may seem big, we are laying it in this spot looking for a double-digit win for the Dawgs.
Predicted Score: Georgia 78 – Notre Dame 63
NCAAB Pick: Georgia -9 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Michigan Wolverines vs. Wisconsin Badgers Odds
Tuesday, December 03, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Kohl Center
The Big Ten opens its conference season on Tuesday night, and in one of the marquee battles of the night, we are looking for Wisconsin to remain undefeated despite hosting a less experienced opponent in Michigan at the Kohl Center.
Own the Best Win
Wisconsin is a perfect 8-0 so far with three wins coming against teams in the Kenpom Top 100. The Badgers put up 86 points against 76th-ranked UCF, and more impressively own wins against #30 Arizona and #13 Pittsburgh, with the latter being the best win ranking-wise for either team.
The Badgers are traditionally known for great defense, but this may be the best offensive team in recent memory ranking 18th in the land in offensive efficiency. This is a veteran team that starts four seniors led by John Tonje, currently #9 on the early Kenpom Player of the Year Rankings.
That veteran leadership has led to excellent ball protection with Wisconsin ranked 10th in turnover percentage at 13.1% (national average 17.8%). That has led to an un-Badger-like 85.2 points per game against a good schedule.
Turnovers a Major Concern
Now, Michigan is 6-1 in their own right and ranked 22nd on Kenpom despite being unranked in the AP Poll. They also come off their best win of the season, having an easier time than expected blowing out Xavier 78-55. It is worth noting however that the X-Men are currently 67th on Kenpom, so that win was not quite as good as either of Wisconsin’s two Top 30 wins.
More importantly, the Wolverines have the biggest flaw for either of these teams with their sloppy ball-handling. While Wisconsin is experienced and does not turn the ball over much, Michigan has just one prominent senior in center Vladislav Goldin with that youth leading to a 334th ranking in turnover percentage at 21.6%.
And remember, the Kohl Center has always been a hostile environment for visiting teams.
The Pick
We see the raucous home crowd rattling the younger Michigan players in the conference opener, leading to the turnover issues continuing. We see that as a death blow with this small spread, so we are betting on Wisconsin as short home chalk.
Predicted Score: Wisconsin 78 – Michigan 70
NCAAB Pick: Wisconsin -2.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
