NCAAB Best Bets for February 13: Flames and Aggies Go Over in Las Cruces
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LT Profits
- February 13, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Liberty/New Mexico State Over 132.5 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We remain a solid 36-27-3, 57.1% in our last 66 NCAA Basketball plays even after going just 1-2 last night at the top-rated sportsbooks.
We are now back for a card that has decent volume with 44 games on the main board but, as has been becoming the new normal for Thursdays, has just one major conference matchup on the entire slate from the Big Ten.
Remember though that value is value no matter what the source, as evidenced by our 3-0 small-conference sweep last Thursday. We have isolated three plays for tonight based mostly on our proprietary model, all three of which are totals, that we feel hold value at the current betting odds. Our three selections come from the Ohio Valley Conference, Conference USA and the Big West.
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles vs. Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans
Thursday, February 13, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Jack Stephens Center
In an Ohio Valley matchup between two teams capable of making 3-point shots, we are backing the Over when Little Rock hosts Tennessee Tech at the Stephens Center on Thursday.
3rd in OVC in eFG%
Little Rock comes in at 16-10 overall and third in the Ohio Valley standings at 10-5. They will also be anxious to erase the taste from their mouths of their worst game of the season on Tuesday, a 57-45 loss to Southeast Missouri here at home. That was a totally atypical performance in a game where they shot an abysmal 38.3% from the field with those 45 points easily being a season low.
Keep in mind though that SE Missouri is third in the conference in defensive efficiency, so we expect a nice bounce-back effort from the Trojans here against a Tennessee Tech team ranked 287th nationally in that category. After all, even with that stinker, Little Rock remains third in the conference in eFG% while leading the Valley in 3-point shooting at an impressive 39.2%.
Volume Beyond the Arc
Tennessee Tech sits at just 13-12 overall, but they are still in the hunt for the OVC title at 8-6, just two games out of first place. They have gotten back into that title hunt by winning four of their last five games and they are looking to avenge a 77-71 home loss to this Little Rock team back in January 18th.
However, it is the score of that game that is significant, as those 148 points scored basically line up with our projection for this game, which would shatter the currently available posted total of 136. The Golden Eagles run up scores with their 3-point shooting, and we expect them to stay in this game the same way.
And it is not about the shooting percentage beyond the arc either, as they are only hitting those shots at an above-average 35.1% rate (national average 33.7%). Rather, it is about volume, as that percentage is good enough for a team whose 45.2% of field goal attempts come from beyond the arc, ranking them 61st nationally in 3PA/FGA ratio.
The Pick
Thus, we expect both teams to hit 70 points in this game just like in their first meeting, so bet on the Over in Little Rock.
Predicted Score: Arkansas-Little Rock 77 – Tennessee Tech 70
NCAAB Pick: Tennessee Tech/Arkansas-Little Rock Over 136 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Liberty Flames vs. New Mexico State Aggies
Thursday, February 13, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at Pan American Center
In a Conference USA matchup involving the highest-rated team in the conference in Kenpom, we are betting the Over when Liberty travels west to Las Cruces to visit New Mexico State.
Only Top 100 Team in C-USA
Liberty is 19-5 overall and second in the conference at 7-4 behind Jacksonville State. However, they are easily the highest-ranked Conference USA team in Kenpom at 74th overall, with Jacksonville State next down at 113th. They did lose outright at Jacksonville on February 1st, but that is the only Liberty loss in their last five games, and they will get a chance for revenge at home later this month in a game that may decide the C-USA title.
The Flames are easily the best shooting team in the conference, in fact ranking fifth in the country in eFG%. This team is hard to defend at any point of the floor, ranking 15th nationally in 3-point shooting at 38.5% and 18th in 2-point shooting at 57.1%. Moreover, that can basically run their offense as they choose here facing a New Mexico State defense that applies no pressure, ranking 326th in turnover percentage forced.
Average Nearly 75 at Home
The Aggies are 12-11 overall and 5-5 in the conference, dropping out of contention by losing five of their last six games after beginning C-USA play at 4-0. And as already mentioned, their passive defense is a detriment when facing a great shooting team like Liberty.
With that said, our interest here is in the total, where we see what we feel is a light 132.5 currently available.
We could easily see Liberty getting into the 70s here, meaning a score in the low 60s from New Mexico State may be all that is needed to clear this Over. Sure, the Aggies rank a dismal 264th in the country in scoring, but that average of 71.0 points would do just fine in this spot. Furthermore, that average climbs to 74.6 points here at home.
The Pick
The bottom line is that a great-shooting Liberty team can run its offense unhindered without facing much pressure, and New Mexico State is capable of scoring enough at home to hang around. That has us backing the Over in New Mexico.
Predicted Score: Liberty 74 – New Mexico State 68
NCAAB Pick: Liberty/New Mexico State Over 132.5 (-115) at Bovada
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos vs. UC Irvine Anteaters
Thursday, February 13, 2025 – 11:00 PM ET at Bren Events Center
In a Big West matchup where both teams can have offensive success, we are backing the Over when UC Irvine hosts UC Santa Barbara in a game televised nationally on ESPNU.
Conference Co-Leaders
The Big West does not get much national attention, so many may not have noticed that Irvine is having a great season at 20-4 overall and ranked a commendable 68th in Kenpom while tied atop the conference at 10-2. They should also be in an ornery mood coming off their first home loss of the season Saturday to the other conference co-leaders from UC San Diego.
That still leaves the Anteaters at 8-1 at home while averaging a whopping 79.9 points here in Irvine. They have excelled in ball protection during league play ranking third in the conference in turnover percentage, which makes this a favorable matchup for them facing a Santa Barbara defense ranked 10th in an 11-team league in turnover percentage forced.
Great 3-Point Shooting
The Gauchos are having a nice season in their own right at 16-8 overall while sitting fifth in the BW at 8-5. They are also entering with good momentum with four wins in the last five games while scoring at least 81 points in three of those wins and 76 in the other. Thus, we see them doing their part to help this Over along.
After all, UCSB is ranked 20th in the country in eFG%, mostly due to ranking an amazing eighth in 3-point shooting at 39.6%. Not surprisingly, it has been the same story inside the conference where the Gauchos lead the Big West in both of those categories, as well as ranking an acceptable fourth in 2-point shooting.
The Pick
We would not be at all surprised to see Irvine reach or at least approach 80 points in this game, while Santa Barbara can always stay in games with their 3-point shooting. We are betting the Over in this contest with a posted total set at below 140.
Predicted Score: UC Irvine 80 – UC Santa Barbara 72
NCAAB Pick: UC Santa Barbara/UC Irvine Over 139.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
