NCAAB Best Bets for February 19: Huskies to Conquer Scarlet Knights at Home
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LT Profits
- February 19, 2025
We nailed the 3-0 NCAA Basketball sweep last night, bringing us to 40-29-3, 58.0% in our last 72 plays. We now return on Wednesday to a nice card that has 44 games on the main board.
As usual, we have zoomed in on three best bets for the Wednesday slate based mostly on our proprietary model, comprised of two sides and one total, that we feel hold value at the current betting odds available on top-rated sportsbooks. Only one of our selections hails from a major conference in the Big Ten, with the other two games coming from the ACC and Mountain West conferences.
East Carolina Pirates vs. Tulane Green Wave
Wednesday, February 19, 2025 – 07:30 PM ET at Devlin Fieldhouse
We are looking for a sneakily higher-scoring game than the total suggests in an AAC battle on Wednesday. Thus, we are backing the Over when Tulane hosts East Carolina in New Orleans.
Lead AAC in 2-Point Shooting
Tulane comes in at 14-11 overall, but they remain in the hunt for the AAC title at 8-4, sitting two games behind first-place Memphis in the loss column. They have stayed alive by winning three of their last four games, with the last win being a high-scoring 81-78 triumph over Rice here at home on Saturday.
Although it is not obvious by their overall rankings, which have the Green Wave 175th in offensive efficiency and 180th in eFG% nationally, scores like that have become more commonplace in league play. That is because the offense has been much better within the AAC, where they are third in eFG% thanks to leading the conference in 2-point shooting at an impressive 55.6% (national average 51.0%).
Tulane has not been great beyond the 3-point arc in conference play, sitting at around the national average at 33.2%, but they have a chance to improve on that tonight with ECU 13th (dead last) in the league in 3-point defense. Furthermore, the Green Wave’s offense has been better here at home all season, averaging 78.0 points overall.
Offense Clicking Right Now
East Carolina is 15-11 overall and 7-6 in conference, and they are looking to continue to improve their seeding for the upcoming AAC Tournament while coming in on a 3-game winning streak. But what is relevant to our wager on the Over here is their improved offense as of late.
The Pirates have been slightly above average in offensive efficiency all season at 108.5 points per 100 possessions (national average 107.5) and a touch better in league play at 108.9 points. However, they have figured things out over their last five games, putting up point totals of 94, 80, 82 and 75 respectively in four of those games.
They can continue that improvement in this game, especially with an expected edge in second chance opportunities with East Carolina ranked 42nd nationally in offensive rebounding percentage and Tulane ranked 258th defensively.
The Pick
We see this game going down to the wire, but our biggest takeaway is our final point projection is about 11 points higher than the current posted total. Therefore, I bet the Over at Tulane is in this spot.
Predicted Score: Tulane 77 – East Carolina 75
NCAAB Pick: Over 140.5 (-115) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
New Mexico Lobos vs. Boise State Broncos
Wednesday, February 19, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at ExtraMile Arena
The leaders of the Mountain West Conference could be walking into a buzzsaw in Boise on Wednesday night. This has us betting on Boise State as small favorites hosting first-place New Mexico at ExtraMile Arena.
Tricky Scheduling Spot
New Mexico has been the best team in the Mountain West this season at 22-4 overall and 14-1 in the conference. That claim is supported by being the highest-ranked MWC team in Kenpom overall at 38th, three spots ahead of San Diego State in 41st. However, that makes this a tricky scheduling spot for the Lobos.
You see, San Diego State is actually third in the conference with Utah State (50th in Kenpom) second at 12-3, with those three teams generally considered the “Big 3” of the Mountain. Well, New Mexico just beat Utah State on Sunday, and they have a big road test at San Diego State up next, making this a classic sandwich letdown spot. That becomes even more true with the Sunday win leaving the Lobos with a two-game lead.
Therefore, New Mexico can be excused if they come out flat tonight in a game that will basically have no effect on their MWC standing. And if the effort is not 100% from a defense ranked 26th nationally and second in the Mountain in efficiency, they can easily lose this game. That is because the key to the Lobos’ success is defense, as the offense ranks an ordinary 71st in efficiency and 160th in eFG%.
Better Shooting and Rebounding
Boise State may not be on par with the top three teams in the conference under equal conditions (not the case tonight), but they are still a solid 17-8 and fifth in league play at 9-5. And while they are not in the same league as New Mexico defensively, they are the better offensive team here.
In fact, the Broncos rank nearly 80 spots higher than New Mexico in eFG% at 83rd, with their strength being 2-point shooting where they are 26th in the country and second in the MWC. Furthermore, they are an outstanding rebounding team on both ends of the court, ranked second in the conference in offensive rebounding percentage while leading the league in defensive rebounding percentage.
The Pick
Under normal circumstances, the New Mexico defense would be tough to overcome for any opponent. But given this letdown spot and this game meaning much more to Boise State, the Broncos have the shooting and rebounding edges to come away with the home victory.
Predicted Score: Boise State 78 – New Mexico 69
NCAAB Pick: Boise State -2.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Washington Huskies
Wednesday, February 19, 2025 – 10:30 PM ET at Alaska Airlines Arena
In a Big Ten matchup that may come down to home-court advantage, we are backing Washington to prevail rather safely when hosting a struggling Rutgers opponent in Seattle on Wednesday.
Lost 4 of Last 5
Rutgers is on their first ever west coast trip during Big Ten play, and the trip got off to an inglorious start with a 75-57 blowout loss at Oregon Sunday to a Ducks team that was also slumping. That was the third straight loss and fourth in the last five games for the Scarlet Knights, leaving them at a losing 12-14 overall and 5-10 in conference.
Things had been looking up for Rutgers after pulling road upsets of Nebraska and Northwestern, but they have regressed back to their true ways over the last five contests. Even the one win during this stretch deserves an asterisk as they defeated Illinois in a game where the Illini’s 7-footer Tomislav Ivisic was limited to 19 minutes in his first game back following a case of mono.
And sadly, those “true ways” for Rutgers are a team that struggles on both ends of the court, ranking 212th nationally in eFG% and 218th in eFG% allowed on defense.
No Bad Home Losses in Big Ten
Washington still enters with a winning record here at 13-12 overall, although they are actually one-half game behind the Knights in the Big Ten standings at 4-10. They are also a rather nondescript 9-6 at home including five conference losses, but to be fair, none of those five home conference losses would be considered “bad”.
That is because four of the losses came to teams currently ranked 37th or better in Kenpom, and the other loss was to 56th-ranked USC while they were playing their best basketball in early December. The two conference home wins have been a nice one over 14th-ranked Maryland and one over 58th-ranked Northwestern. Well, Rutgers is ranked 79th, making this a very winnable game for Washington.
And unlike Rutgers, the Huskies are at least better than average in both ends in efficiency, grading out at 110.0 points per 100 possessions on offense and 102.3 points per 100 allowed on defense (national average 107.5). Moreover, they do not allow second chances, leading the Big Ten in defensive rebounding percentage.
The Pick
We actually have Washington graded as the slightly better team overall, and we are betting them to cover at home as tiny favorites while finally getting a breather, hosting the lowest-rated conference team they have faced so far.
Predicted Score: Washington 79 – Rutgers 72
NCAAB Pick: Washington -2 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
