NCAAB Best Bets for February 25: Aztecs To Conquer New Mexico at Home
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LT Profits
- February 26, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: San Diego State -2 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We are coming off a winning NCAA Basketball week going 6-3 at the top-rated sportsbooks, bringing us to a solid 43-32-3, 57.3% in our last 78 plays. We now return on Tuesday for a card that has 34 games on the main board including many major conference matchups.
We have zoomed in on three best bets for the Tuesday slate based mostly on our proprietary model, comprised of two totals and one side, that we feel hold value at the current betting odds. Surprisingly, none of our plays involve major conferences, as they hail from the MAC, Missouri Valley and Mountain West conferences.
Toledo Rockets vs. Kent State Golden Flashes
Tuesday, February 25, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at M.A.C. Center
We are expecting a relatively high-scoring game in Kent, OH on Tuesday night MAC-tion. Thus, we are backing the Over when Kent State hosts Toledo.
90 Points in 3 of the Last 4 Games
Kent State is a fine 18-9 overall, but they fell to 8-6 in MAC play by dropping a 96-92 decision on the road at Miami-OH on Friday. The good news there though is that marked the third time in the last four games that Kent has reached 90 points, and they also scored 83 points in a road win over this Toledo opponent in their first meeting on January 21st.
The Golden Flashes are only above average during MAC play in eFG% at 51.8% (national average 50.9%), but they make up for it with lots of second chances ranking 2nd inside the conference and a good 54th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. And they have usually cashed in on those put-backs with a 2-point percentage of 53.9% in league play (national average 51.0%).
The Flashes have also averaged a nice 78.2 points per game at home this season.
Worst Defense in MAC
Toledo is 16-11 overall but one game ahead of Kent State in the conference standings at 9-5. However, they are trending in the wrong direction, having lost three of their last four games. They have been fine offensively grading out at 111.3 points per 100 possessions in efficiency (national average 107.5) and an even better 114.0 points per 100 during league play.
However, the Rockets have been held back by having the worst defense in the MAC in terms of efficiency. They are 331st nationally in defensive efficiency and 344th in eFG% allowed, as well as dead last in the conference in efficiency and 10th in a 12-team league in eFG% allowed. It does not help that they apply virtually no pressure either, ranking 300th nationally and 10th in the MAC in turnover percentage forced.
The Pick
Thus, we see both teams having paths to scoring success tonight and are betting on the Over even with a posted total of 150.
Predicted Score: Kent State 83 – Toledo 77
NCAAB Pick: Toledo/Kent State Over 150 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Southern Illinois Salukis
Tuesday, February 25, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Banterra Center
We are venturing into the Missouri Valley Conference on Tuesday night for a matchup where we expect an ample amount of scoring by both squads. We are betting on the Over when Illinois State pays a visit to Southern Illinois.
One of the Best Shooting Teams
Illinois State comes in at a mediocre 17-12 overall and they have only evened their MVC record to 9-9 by winning their last two games. This is despite being one of the best shooting teams in the country this season. As you might expect, that is an indictment of how bad their defense has been, but more on that later.
The Redbirds are a difficult team to defend because they shoot the ball well from all points of the floor. They rank an amazing fifth in the country in eFG% at 57.2%, leaving them just a few ticks behind major schools in Duke (57.6%) and BYU (57.4%) in third and fourth respectively!
They are ranked 16th in 3-point shooting and 15th in 2-point shooting, leaving them 18th in the country in overall raw FG% at 48.8%.
Can Stay Close vs. Bad Defense
Southern Illinois is struggling right now with four straight losses, leaving them at 12-17 overall and 7-11 in the conference. With that said, they are by far the better offensive rebounding team here ranking second in the Valley in that department and they have been above average inside the league in 3-point shooting at 35.0% (national average 33.8%).
The Salukis can also expect a lot of help for the Illinois State defense as mentioned earlier. The Redbirds rank 329th in eFG% allowed, 302nd in 2-point defense and, maybe most importantly in this matchup, 312th in 3-point defense. They do not apply much pressure either, ranking 250th in turnover percentage forced.
The Pick
So, while we would not be totally shocked if Southern Illinois pulled the upset here at home, our biggest takeaway is that they should do their part in the scoring department. This has us backing the Over in Carbondale on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Illinois State 79 – Southern Illinois 78
NCAAB Pick: Illinois State/Southern Illinois Over 147 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
New Mexico Lobos vs. San Diego State Aztecs
Tuesday, February 25, 2025 – 11:00 PM ET at Viejas Arena
Stay up late tonight for the last game on the board from the Mountain West Conference at 11:00 PM ET on Fox Sports 1. We are backing San Diego State as small home favorites hosting conference-leading New Mexico.
Elite Defense
San Diego State comes in at 18-7 overall, and although they are currently fourth in the conference at 11-5 after a road loss at second-place Utah State Saturday, they remain 43rd overall in Kenpom. That is only six spots behind New Mexico in 37th, so regardless of where they finish in the MWC, this will be a dangerous team in the upcoming conference tournament.
The Aztecs are above average in offensive efficiency at 110.4 points per 100 possessions, but their calling card is defense. In fact, they are 10th in the country in defensive efficiency and fifth in eFG% allowed, being equally good defending 2-pointers (8th) and 3-pointers (18th). This has resulted in ranking 13th in the nation in points allowed at a scant 63.0 per game, an average that drops even further to 61.1 points per game here in San Diego.
Ordinary Shooting
New Mexico is 22-5 overall and they appear to be in great shape for the regular season Mountain crown, topping the conference at 14-2 while holding the tiebreaker over second-place Utah State. And they will be heavily favored in their three remaining games after this one with all being against lower-tier conference teams.
That aside, this remains a treacherous spot for the Lobos. That is because this is another team that leans on its defense, and this is one of the rare occasions where their defense is not as good as their opponent’s. That becomes an issue with New Mexico being an ordinary shooting team ranking 150th in eFG%, 118th in 3-point shooting and 179th in 2-point shooting.
That gets compounded with this game being in a tough road environment and with San Diego State seeking revenge for an earlier 62-48 loss to the Lobos in Albuquerque with those 48 points being a season-low.
The Pick
We look for San Diego State to get that revenge keyed by some suffocating defense of their own. Bet on the Aztecs as small home chalk at Viejas Arena on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: San Diego State 76 – New Mexico 69
NCAAB Pick: San Diego State -2 (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
