NCAAB Best Bets for February 26: Terrapins to Slay Spartans in College Park
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LT Profits
- February 26, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Maryland -3.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We began the week with a 3-0 NCAA Basketball sweep last night, bringing us to a very nice 46-32-3, 59.0% in our last 81 plays. We are back on Wednesday for a nice college hoops card that has 40 games on the main board including many major conference matchups.
We have isolated three best bets for the Wednesday slate based mostly on our proprietary model, all three of which are sides that we feel hold value at the current betting odds. Two of our selections come from the Big Ten, with the third play hailing from the mid-major Mountain West Conference.
Michigan State Spartans vs. Maryland Terrapins
Wednesday, February 26, 2025 – 06:30 PM ET at XFINITY Center
In a very good Big Ten matchup Wednesday night where Michigan State is the higher-ranked team over Maryland, our own personal rankings have these teams closer to even. Thus, we are backing the Terrapins as lukewarm home favorites in College Park.
Well Balanced
Maryland comes in at 21-6 overall and 11-5 in Big Ten play, leaving them ranked 15th in Kenpom and 16th in the AP Poll. We think they may be better than that though as this is a well-balanced team that grades out well on both sides of the court, ranking 16th nationally in offensive efficiency and 21st in defensive efficiency. They also rank fourth and second respectively in those efficiencies inside the conference.
Furthermore, this is a team that really has no discernible weakness. On offense, the Terrapins rank 30th in eFG%, 30th in 3-point shooting and 53rd in 2-point shooting while doing a good job of ball protection, ranking 38th in turnover percentage. On defense, they are 43rd in FG% allowed, 48th in 3-point defense and 77th in 2-point defense while not allowing many second chances, ranking 28th in defensive rebounding percentage.
So, while the Terps will not blow you away in any one aspect, they are solidly “green” across practically all the Kenpom components. Moreover, they have been a great home team going 16-1 in this building with the lone loss being by four points to a very good Marquette team way back in the fourth game of the season.
Nothing Beyond the Arc
Michigan State enters at 22-5 overall while tied atop the conference with archrival Michigan at 13-3. They are ranked 11th in Kenpom and possibly an undeserved eighth in the AP Poll. However, unlike Maryland, the Spartans have two glaring weaknesses that could ultimately decide the outcome of this game.
The most obvious weakness for Sparty is 3-point shooting, where they rank a horrific 349th in the country at a dismal 29.6%. The other weakness is on the defensive end, where MSU ranks a passive 225th in turnover percentage forced at 16.6%, a rate that drops further during league play to 15.9% (national average 17.4%).
We have already mentioned Maryland’s very good ball protection, so they can basically run their offense however they choose while not facing much pressure.
The combination of that expected unhindered Maryland offense, Michigan State not being able to keep pace with 3-pointers and a dominant home court has us betting on the Terrapins as modest home favorites.
Predicted Score: Maryland 78 – Michigan State 69
NCAAB Pick: Maryland -3.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. USC Trojans
Wednesday, February 26, 2025 – 10:30 PM ET at Galen Center
In a late Big Ten battle out on the West Coast between two slumping teams, we see more upside with a better-shooting USC team playing at home. We are betting on the Trojans as the tiniest of favorites over disappointing Ohio State.
Over-Ranked?
We believe a strong case can be made for Ohio State being the most overrated team in the country. After all, the metrics say that this is a good team that is still ranked 33rd overall in Kenpom while rating 41st in offensive efficiency and 38th in defensive efficiency. However, they have been maddeningly inconsistent on the court, sitting at just 15-13 overall with a losing 7-10 record inside the Big Ten!
The Buckeyes have lost four of their last five games, and they began this first-ever West Coast trip during conference play with a non-covering 69-61 loss at UCLA on Sunday. Despite the good offensive efficiency ranking overall, the Bucks are 13th in that category inside the conference, ranking 16th in eFG% at 49.8%, 18th (dead last) in 2-point shooting, and 10th in 3-point shooting.
Add sloppy ball-handling with a 14th ranking inside the B1G in turnover percentage, and it is easy to justify the losing conference mark, while also making the Kenpom rankings rather mind-boggling.
Much Better eFG% in Big Ten
USC is not exactly setting the world on fire either at 14-13 overall and 6-10 inside the conference, and they too are slumping having lost five of their last six games. However, they remain the better shooting team in this matchup, and while their national ranking of 50th in eFG% is not too much better than Ohio State’s 69th ranking, that difference is much bigger in league play.
We have already spelled out the Buckeyes’ enormous struggles against Big Ten defenses, while conversely, the Trojans are third in the conference in eFG% at 55.0%. And they have been good from all points of the floor, ranking third in 3-point shooting and fifth in 2-point shooting.
Thus, despite the difference in the Kenpom rankings with USC sitting at 60th overall, we still trust them to hit shots when they need to, which we cannot say about Ohio State on the road at the Galen Center. We are giving the scant one point with the Trojans in this spot.
Predicted Score: USC 80 – Ohio State 74
NCAAB Pick: USC -1 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Utah State Aggies vs. Boise State Broncos
Wednesday, February 26, 2025 – 10:30 PM ET at ExtraMile Arena
The Mountain West Conference has built a reputation over the years for the top teams all being dominant at home. Well, we are indeed backing Boise State at home tonight over the second-place team in the conference in Utah State.
Need This More
The so-called “Big 3” of the Mountain West are New Mexico, Utah State and San Diego State, and that seems justified given those are the three highest-ranked MWC teams all in the Kenpom Top 50. But don’t look now, Boise State is currently the fourth highest-ranked Mountain team right at #50!
And this is a huge game for the Broncos as they are fifth in the conference at 11-5 and close the season with three games against lower-tier teams following this game. That means that a win here can lead to a 15-5 final conference mark that could possibly catapult them to a Top 3 seed in the MWC Tournament despite not being as good as the Big 3 on paper.
But this is still a good team ranked 44th in offensive efficiency, and their height helps them on both ends of the court. That size has led to ranking 29th nationally in 2-point shooting, an area where they could dominate a Utah State defense ranked 259th in 2-point defense. The Broncos also do not allow second chances, ranking second in the country in defensive rebounding percentage.
And speaking of home court dominance, Boise State is 12-1 in this building losing only to San Diego State.
Not as Many Second Chances Expected
Utah State may be the better overall team here, but this could also be a letdown spot after knocking off that same San Diego State team on Saturday to improve to 24-4 overall and second in the conference at 14-3. And they actually have very little chance of overtaking first-place New Mexico (15-2), with the Lobos owning the tiebreaker over USU and an easy remaining schedule.
Even putting that letdown factor aside, we have already touched on a stylistic disadvantage for the smaller Aggies team here, as their poor 2-point defense does not match well with Boise’s good and big inside shooters.
Also, Utah State is usually a good offensive rebounding team ranking 56th nationally and third in the conference in that category, but they do not figure to get as many second chances as usual against the second-best defensive rebounding team in the nation.
So, with Boise State appearing to have edges both situationally and in some key matchups, bet on the Broncos as home favorites at ExtraMile Arena.
Predicted Score: Boise State 78 – Utah State 69
NCAAB Pick: Boise State -3.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
