NCAAB Best Bets for February 5: Pirates Make Owls Walk the Plank
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LT Profits
- February 5, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: East Carolina -7 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We have a relatively nice-sized NCAA Basketball betting card for a weekday on Wednesday with 45 games on the main board, although the fare is rather light when it comes to major conference matchups.
Still, we have isolated three best bets as usual based mostly on our proprietary model, comprised of two sides and one total, that we feel hold value at the top-rated sportsbooks. And two of those best bets are indeed major conference matchups both from the SEC, with the third play hailing from the AAC.
Rice Owls vs. East Carolina Pirates
Wednesday, February 05, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Minges Coliseum
Oftentimes, the best value can be found in under-the-radar matchups. We think such is the case Wednesday as we see some sneaky value in the AAC, where we expect East Carolina to have an easier time than the line suggests disposing of slumping Rice.
Lost 7 Straight Games
You would have a tough time finding another team in the country that is playing such bad basketball as Rice is right now. Yes, they are 11-11 overall, but remember they went 9-4 against a laughable non-conference schedule rated 347th per Kenpom with only one win over a team currently ranked better than 243rd! They then opened 2-0 in AAC play to get to 11-4, but again, that was against two bottom-feeders in #269 Tulsa and #245 Charlotte.
The Owls have since shown their true colors with seven straight losses, a streak that included losses to teams ranked 210th (UTSA) at home and 195th (South Florida) on the road. This skid could have been foreseen when stepping up a bit in class, considering they have not graded out well offensively all year even while feasting on cupcakes early on.
Rice ranks 270th in eFG%, 282nd in 2-point shooting and 200th in 3-point shooting. Sure, they grade out a bit better defensively, but they are still a below-average 196th in efficiency at 107.5 points per 100 possessions allowed (national average 106.6) and they apply no pressure, ranking 304th in turnover percentage forced.
Expect Big Turnover Edge
We are not claiming that East Carolina is a super-power by any means, as they are 12-10 overall, 4-5 in conference play and ranked 158th in Kenpom. But that still makes them better than the teams that Rice has beaten and at least they are trending positively as of late. In fact, ECU is very nearly on a 4-game winning streak as they had won three in a row before taking Temple to overtime on the road Saturday before falling 98-94.
The Pirates also have a couple of paths to gain separation in this contest in the forms of turnovers and second chances. We already alluded to the Owls’ lack of pressure, and East Carolina has been better than average in turnover percentage offensively at 16.3% (national average 17.5%), so they should be able to run their offensive sets basically unimpeded.
The same is true at the opposite end where the Pirates are above average at forcing turnovers at 18.2% and Rice is 297th in turnover percentage offensively. As for the aforementioned second chances, ECU is a very good 32nd in the country and second inside the conference in offensive rebounding percentage.
The Pick
In the end, we feel that East Carolina has a bigger edge here than this line would indicate, especially when factoring in each team’s recent form. Thus, we are betting on the Pirates as home favorites in this spot.
Predicted Score: East Carolina 77 – Rice 64
NCAAB Pick: East Carolina -7 (-115) at Bovada
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Texas Longhorns
Wednesday, February 05, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at Moody Center
We are expecting a relatively high-scoring game in the SEC on Wednesday when Arkansas visits Texas, so we are betting on the Over in Austin in a game televised on ESPN2.
Lost to 5 Great Defenses
There is a disconnect when looking at the offensive rankings for a Texas team that is 15-7 overall and ranked 28th in Kenpom, but only 4-5 in SEC play. However, there is a valid reason why their overall offensive numbers do not line up with their conference rankings.
You see, the Longhorns rank a good 31st in the country overall in offensive efficiency and 39th in eFG% at 54.9%. However, they are only 10th in efficiency during conference play and ninth in eFG% at a noticeably worse 48.6%. But before dubbing the Horns as “frauds”, consider that all five SEC losses have come to teams ranked 14th or better nationally in defensive efficiency!
When Texas finally got a breather facing a lesser defense, they scored 89 points in a demolition of LSU on Saturday. Granted, Arkansas is a good 34th in defensive efficiency themselves, but that still pales compared to the elite defenses the Longhorns have had to endure, and the Razorbacks are only 69th in eFG% allowed. Therefore, another 80-point effort from Texas would not surprise us.
Scored 89 at Kentucky
Arkansas is 13-8 and just 2-6 in conference, yet they get a beneficial “SEC Boost” in Kenpom ranked a respectable 47th overall. And while we get that the Razorbacks grade out better defensively than offensively, if we are right about Texas at least approaching 80 points here, that would not leave Arkansas much to do to clear this Over.
And the Razorbacks just went into Rupp Arena and steamrolled Kentucky 89-79 on Saturday while shooting 56.1% from the field. Sure, that was their best offensive game of the season and will probably not get replicated here, but considering that a score in the low 70s or maybe even the high 60s would be good enough for the Over here, it was still an encouraging sign.
The Pick
The bottom line here is we think Texas will carry over their offensive success from last game, and also from earlier in the season, while again avoiding one of the elite SEC defenses. And Arkansas showed last game that they can do enough to make the Over the winning play here.
Predicted Score: Texas 80 – Arkansas 74
NCAAB Pick: Arkansas/Texas Over 143.5 (-115) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
LSU Tigers vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Wednesday, February 05, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at Stegeman Coliseum
In a matchup of two teams in the bottom half of the SEC standings, we feel that Georgia has at least fared well enough against the lesser teams in the conference to get our call at home here hosting LSU.
Brutal Schedule Lately
Georgia is 15-7 overall but 3-6 inside the SEC, and yet they are still ranked a very respectable 38th in Kenpom. They have lost five of their last six games, but as often happens in the best conference in the country, four of those losses came to teams currently ranked in the Top 6 in the country in Kenpom, while the fifth loss came visiting a team with a strong home court advantage in Arkansas.
The one “breather” during this stretch resulted in an easy 11-point win here at home over South Carolina (76th in Kenpom), and the Bulldogs are facing a similar opponent here with LSU ranked 77th. Furthermore, Georgia already had a couple of better SEC wins here at home before the current skid, beating #24 Kentucky by 13 points and #36 Oklahoma by 10.
Lower Efficiencies vs. Similar
LSU comes in at 12-9 overall and just 1-7 in conference, resulting in them being ranked nearly 40 spots lower than Georgia in Kenpom. Furthermore, the Tigers have won just one true road game all season, which came way back in the third game of the year visiting #64 Kansas State, which rankings-wise looked like an easier assignment than this trip.
Now to be fair, LSU has faced the same gauntlet of a schedule as Georgia has, but that only makes the Bulldogs’ better gradings on both ends of the court more valid. You see, the Tigers are ranked 108th nationally in offensive efficiency and 56th in defensive efficiency, while the Bulldogs rank 82nd offensively and a very good 21st defensively.
Also, while Georgia has three wins vs. teams in the Kenpom Top 40 when adding in a win over #16 St. John’s out of conference, LSU owns no such wins with their best triumph being over #47 Arkansas at home.
The Pick
So, while these teams both have losing conference records, we grade Georgia as the much better team, as validated by each school’s Kenpom ranking. Thus, we are laying the points with the Bulldogs in Athens.
Predicted Score: Georgia 83 – LSU 69
NCAAB Pick: Georgia -8.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
