NCAAB Best Bets for January 10: Take Terrapins to Tame Bruins
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LT Profits
- January 10, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Maryland -4.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We are a profitable 14-10, 58.3% in our last 24 NCAA Basketball plays at the top-rated sportsbooks, and we return to a small Friday card that brings us 10 games on the main board.
We have still identified three best bets based mostly on our proprietary model, all three of which are sides that we feel hold value at the current betting odds. Two of our three Friday plays are on national TV with UCLA vs. Maryland on FOX and Central Michigan vs. Toledo on CBS Sports Network. We begin, however, with a value play from the MAAC.
Siena Saints vs. Quinnipiac Bobcats
Friday, January 10, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at
The Bobcats of Quinnipiac find themselves as moderate favorites Friday despite being a terrible shooting team. We are taking the points with Siena in what we see as an outright upset.
One of the Worst Shooting Teams
Quinnipiac comes in at 7-8 overall and 3-1 in MAAC play, but that says more about their competition than their ability. Their best win came in overtime against a Hofstra team ranked 181st in Kenpom, and another win came against a sub-division team where they still scored only 71 points. That is not much better than their 301st ranked scoring average of 69.9 points per game inside Division I.
And therein lies the problem, as the Bobcats are one of the worst shooting teams in the country, ranking 338th in eFG% at 44.9%. They are a dismal 354th in 3-point shooting at 26.8% and a not-too-much-better 269th in 2-point shooting at 48.0%. To make matters worse, they have not helped themselves much by getting to the foul line, ranking 290th in FTA/FGA ratio.
The defense has been a bit better but not extraordinary, with a slightly better-than-average efficiency of 104.6 points per 100 possessions (national average 105.9). That should not be good enough to be only one game under .500 given the horrific offense.
Won the Last Two Road Games
Siena is an identical 7-8, which may help explain why they are underdogs on the road here. However, they have travelled well winning their last two road games outright, with the last road win being out of conference against a Cornell team ranked 71 spots higher (150th) than Quinnipiac (221st) in Kenpom.
In fact, the Saints almost came in riding a 3-game winning streak, as the only loss in those three games was by one point 74-73 to Iona. Furthermore, that was a game effort in a terrible spot for Siena, coming just two days after a double-overtime game.
And unlike the Bobcats, the Saints can at least shoot 3-pointers capably at 33.4%, right around the national average, while Q is 285th in 3-point defense.
The Pick
We see that edge in 3-point shooting leading to a straight-up win, but our official bet here is taking the points with Siena.
Predicted Score: Siena 74 – Quinnipiac 68
NCAAB Pick: Siena +4.5 (-108) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
UCLA Bruins vs. Maryland Terrapins
Friday, January 10, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at XFINITY Center
We think that Maryland is playing much better basketball than what this line seems to indicate. Thus, we are betting on the Terrapins as reasonable home favorites in this spot.
Grade Better on Both Ends
Simply put, besides playing at home, we think Maryland grades out better on both sides of the court. We think this makes this a prime bounce-back spot after back-to-back road losses out west at Oregon and Washington following an 11-2 start to the season. This remains a well-balanced team as the Terrapins rank 24th overall in Kenpom while being 31st in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive efficiency.
The Terps shoot the ball well ranking 27th in eFG%. They are safely above average in 3-point shooting at 36.4%, but their strength is inside where they hit 57.1% of 2-pointers thanks to their two big men in 6’10” Derik Queen and 6’9” Julian Reese. They have also excelled in ball protection, ranking 16th in turnover percentage.
Defensively, Maryland is 45th in eFG% allowed at 46.6% and they do not allow many second chances, ranking 21st in defensive rebounding percentage again thanks to Queen and Reese.
No Second Chances
Speaking of a lack of second chances, UCLA coach Mick Cronin called his team out as “soft” following a 94-75 home loss to Michigan on Tuesday, citing their inability to get rebounds. Cronin may have been trying to motivate his troops, but unfortunately, his Bruins’ 122nd ranking in offensive rebounding percentage does not figure to improve against the Maryland big men.
UCLA is 77th in offensive efficiency but a worse 119th in eFG%, making it tough to score when combined with the lack of offensive boards. Granted, the Bruins are fifth in defensive efficiency, but that is primarily due to ranking second in defensive turnover percentage, which gets neutralized here by the Terps’ good ball handing. They are 81st in eFG% allowed, nearly 40 spots lower than Maryland.
The Pick
All things considered, this looks like a cheap price with Maryland having edges on both ends of the court and playing at home. Give the points with the Terrapins in College Park.
Predicted Score: Maryland 74 – UCLA 63
NCAAB Pick: Maryland -4.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Toledo Rockets
Friday, January 10, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Savage Arena
Central Michigan has shot the ball poorly this season and does not apply much pressure on defense. We are backing Toledo at home to secure a safe, covering win.
Unhindered Offense
Toledo comes in at 8-6 while sitting a perfect 2-0 inside the MAC. That is actually commendable, as they managed to go 6-6 against a good non-conference schedule ranked 66th per Kenpom. That has served them well while averaging 83.0 points in their two conference games.
The key to the Rockets’ offensive success is ball protection, as they rank 17th nationally in turnover percentage at 14.1%, a rate that has further improved to 13.6% in conference play. That makes for a dream matchup here facing a CMU defense that applies virtually no pressure, ranking 239th in turnover percentage allowed. This should allow Toledo to run their offense basically unhindered.
Now granted, the Rockets rank 315th in defensive efficiency, but they have been slightly better than average in that area in the two conference games at 105.3 points per 100 possessions and they are facing an offense lacking firepower here.
Just Two Wins vs. Division I
Central Michigan enters at 6-8, but even that sub-.500 record is padded by facing a ridiculous four sub-division opponents! CMU naturally won all of those, leaving them at a disturbing 2-8 against Division I foes. That includes an 0-2 start in MAC play with losses to Ohio at home and Akron on the road.
And to say the Chippewas have struggled offensively would be an understatement. This is a team ranked 276th in offensive efficiency and 329th in eFG%, and they have not shot well from anywhere ranking 338th in 3-point shooting and 286th from 2-point range. To make matters worse, they are a sloppy 333rd in turnover percentage at an abysmal 21.0% (national average 17.7%).
The Pick
So, Toledo is by far the better shooting team here and they figure to have a huge edge in the turnover department. That is enough for us to bet on the Rockets as home favorites at Savage Arena.
Predicted Score: Toledo 80 – Central Michigan 70
NCAAB Pick: Toledo -4.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
