NCAAB Best Bets for January 14: Wildcats Claw Past Aggies Handily
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LT Profits
- January 14, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Kentucky -6 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The 2024-25 NCAA Basketball conference schedule is now in full swing, and we have a nice Tuesday card that brings us 36 games on the main board.
We are back at the top-rated sportsbooks with three best bets based mostly on our proprietary model, consisting of two sides and one total that we feel all hold value at the current betting odds. And all three of our selections come from major conferences, with one each from the Big East, SEC and Big Ten.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice.
Villanova Wildcats vs. Xavier Musketeers
Tuesday, January 14, 2025 – 06:30 PM ET at Cintas Center
We anticipate a high-scoring affair in the Big East on Tuesday with a heavy volume of shots from 3-point range. Thus, we are backing the Over when Villanova visits Xavier.
Load Up on 3s
Xavier comes in at 10-7 but remains a respectable 53rd in Kenpom thanks to a good non-conference schedule that included wins over South Carolina and Wake Forest. They are only 2-4 in conference play though, so we expect an all-out effort here as they try to avoid digging themselves an early hole.
And this looks like a nice matchup stylistically for a Musketeers’ offense ranked 53rd in offensive efficiency taking on a Villanova defense ranked 177th in defensive efficiency. The biggest mismatch in the contest is Xavier ranking 14th nationally in 3-point shooting at 39.2% going up against a Wildcats’ team ranked 270th in 3-point defense while facing the weaker schedule of these two teams.
Furthermore, if this is a close game late, Xavier can pad its scoring from the foul line where it ranks 15th in the country at 79.0%.
Offense Still Successful
Villanova is 11-6 and only five spots ahead of Xavier at 48th overall. They had not beaten a team ranked inside the Kenpom Top 80 until edging defending champion Connecticut (currently 25th) by two points back at home two games ago. That schedule makes their low defensive efficiency look even worse.
However, the offense has legitimized itself during conference play. That unit ranks 11th in offensive efficiency and fourth in 3-point shooting at 41.2%, and while we were skeptical at first due to the schedule, the Wildcats have gone on to lead the Big East in offensive efficiency during league play. They also have a good matchup here, as while Xavier is respectably 61st in defensive efficiency, they are only 190th in 3-point defense.
Moreover, this game pits two of the better free-throw shooting teams in the land with Villanova 11th at 79.6%.
The Pick
So, we expect both teams to shoot well from beyond the 3-point arc and from the foul line in a projected close game. This has us betting the Over in the Cintas Center.
Predicted Score: Xavier 80 – Villanova 77
NCAAB Pick: Villanova/Xavier Over 147 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Tuesday, January 14, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Rupp Arena
In an SEC battle where one team appears to have a huge shooting edge, we are looking for Kentucky to roll to a double-digit victory hosting Texas A&M at historic Rupp Arena.
Efficient Offense
Kentucky comes in at 13-3 against a great schedule that includes an impressive three wins against Kenpom Top 10 teams in:
- Duke (#2)
- Florida (#5)
- Gonzaga (#9)
Even their worst loss was to #34 Georgia, so nobody can accuse the Wildcats of padding their schedule.
Yet, the offense has still rolled against that gauntlet of a slate. The Cats are third in the country in offensive efficiency at 124.2 points per 100 possessions and 24th in eFG% at 56.4%. That latter figure looks better when considering it has come over a lot of possessions with Kentucky ranking 30th in tempo rating.
Perhaps most importantly, the Wildcats have had great ball protection ranking second in turnover percentage despite the fast pace and difficult schedule.
Bad Shooting
We get that Texas A&M is an identical 13-3 while ranking 15th overall in Kenpom, 29th in offensive efficiency and 13th in defensive efficiency. However, no team has been able to slow down the Kentucky offense, especially in Rupp, and we do not expect A&M to do so either.
That means that the Aggies would need to shoot well to win this game, and frankly, they are very lacking in that area despite their record and efficiency ranking. The latter is fueled by leading the land in offensive rebounding percentage, but this is a poor shooting team.
Texas A&M is a dismal 259th in eFG%, 286th in 3-point shooting and 215th in 2-point shooting. They do not even help themselves at the foul line, where they are 267th at 69.2%.
The Pick
So, the only expected edge for the Aggies would be in second chances, but we feel that gets more than negated by Kentucky’s enormous shooting advantage.
We are giving the points with the Wildcats in Lexington.
Predicted Score: Kentucky 86 – Texas A&M 73
NCAAB Pick: Kentucky -6 (-115) at Bovada
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Tuesday, January 14, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at Kohl Center
This is a different type of Wisconsin team than most have become accustomed to, and we are looking for their offense to key a safe win at home in Madison over Ohio State.
Not Plodders Any More
Wisconsin has become known for running a methodical, plodding offense while always looking for the best shot. Last year was no exception when they ranked 336th in average possession length at 19.0 seconds and usually got what they wanted by ranking 17th in offensive efficiency.
However, the Badgers have shaved nearly two seconds off that possession length this season to 17.4 seconds, and the result has been a 13-3 record and 22nd ranking in Kenpom. They are averaging an unheard-of (for them) 83.1 points per game while improving their efficiency ranking to 12th with the faster pace.
That pace makes their good 49th-ranked eFG% of 54.7% play even better, and this is a team that does not miss free throws, leading the nation by a nice margin at 85.1%.
Offense Exposed in Big Ten
Ohio State is 10-6 while ranking 31st overall in Kenpom and 41st in offensive efficiency, but frankly, we are skeptical about both of those rankings holding up. The reason for that is the offense has been exposed during Big Ten play after probably overachieving out of conference.
To wit, the Buckeyes rank 14th during Big Ten play in both offensive efficiency and eFG%! Furthermore, they have been extremely sloppy in league play facing so many better defenses than they faced out of conference, with an atrocious turnover percentage of 20.2%, ranking a dead last 18th inside the B1G.
Even the defense is a middling seventh in conference play in eFG% allowed at 50.5%, just a hair better than the national average of 50.7%, so we do not see the Bucks slowing down the newfound Badgers’ offense too much.
The Pick
With the improved Wisconsin offense having a large edge during Big Ten play, bet on the Badgers as home favorites in this spot.
Predicted Score: Wisconsin 83 – Ohio State 71
NCAAB Pick: Wisconsin -6.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
