NCAAB Best Bets for January 21: Demon Deacons to Tar Heels at Home
-
LT Profits
- January 21, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Wake Forest -1 (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We are now a solid 19-14, 57.6% in our last 33 NCAA Basketball plays, and we return to a nice Tuesday card that brings us 35 games on the main board.
We have three more best bets for tonight’s slate based mostly on our proprietary model, consisting of one side and two totals that we feel hold value at the top-rated sportsbooks. All three of our selections come from major conferences, with one each from the SEC, ACC and the Big Ten.
Make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for alternative betting angles.
Missouri Tigers vs. Texas Longhorns
Tuesday, January 21, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at Moody Center
We think that points will be plentiful from both sides in Austin on Tuesday night. Thus, we are backing the Over when Missouri visits Texas at the Moody Center.
Should Succeed Beyond Arc
Texas is 12-6 and down to 42nd overall in Kenpom after losing four of their last five games. However, they have faced a brutal scheduling stretch with three of those losses coming to teams in the Kenpom Top 10 and the fourth coming to 18th-ranked Texas A&M. We are looking for a return to form with this home game.
The Longhorns are still 25th in the country in eFG% after facing some elite defenses as of late, and while Missouri is a decent 61st in defensive efficiency and 98th in eFG% allowed, those rankings pale compared to what Texas has endured recently. Thus, we expect more tonight from a Horns offense that is averaging 80.4 points overall and 88.9 points here at home.
And this looks like a dream matchup for Texas from beyond the arc, where they rank 27th in the country in 3-point shooting at 38.1% while facing a Missouri team ranked 225th in 3-point defense.
Average Nearly 85 Points
The Tigers are no strangers to offense themselves, and they are the hotter team here coming in on a 4-game winnings streak to improve to 15-3. This team is fueled by an offense ranked 18th in efficiency and 13th in eFG% while having success from all points of the floor, ranking 31st in 3-point shooting and 28th in 2-point shooting.
Missouri also gets to the foul line as much as any team in the country, ranking second in FTA/FGA ratio at a whopping 49.6%. Add this all up and they are averaging 84.8 points per game to rank 17th in the land in scoring while scoring at least 75 points in 17 of their 18 games. The only team to hold the Tigers below 75 points was Auburn, which is currently #1 in the AP Poll and #2 in Kenpom.
The Pick
So, we see this as a close battle that should go right down to the wire, but we also see offensive success from both squads. Therefore, we are betting on the Over in Austin.
Predicted Score: Texas 82 – Missouri 78
NCAAB Pick: Missouri/Texas Over 148.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Tuesday, January 21, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at LJVM Coliseum
Despite ranking 45 spots lower in Kenpom, we are betting on 77th-ranked Wake Forest to emerge victorious over 32nd-ranked North Carolina at home in Winston-Salem on Tuesday.
No Quality Road Wins?
Frankly, we think 32nd is an overrating for a North Carolina team that comes in at 12-7 overall. Yes, we respect the fact that the lofty ranking has to do with facing one of the toughest schedules in the country, with the UNC non-conference slate rated seventh per Kenpom before the start of ACC play.
But nonetheless, while the Tar Heels have some nice home wins over SMU and UCLA, their resume looks lacking in quality road wins. The highest-ranked Kenpom team North Carolina has beaten on the road is 85th-ranked Notre Dame, and that was by one point 74-73 with the Irish’s best player Markus Burton playing limited minutes in his first game back from injury.
Now, they are visiting one of the most difficult environments in the country for visiting teams, where their inability to apply pressure defense should get magnified.
One of the Best Home Courts
Just the fact that Wake Forest is a scant favorite here should tell you how much the oddsmakers value Joel Coliseum. And rightfully so, as the Demon are 9-0 at home this season with an average winning margin of +12.6 points. And their two ACC home wins have been by 18 points over NC State and 13 points over Stanford, the same Stanford team that just upset North Carolina in Chapel Hill on Saturday.
In fact, Kenpom rates Wake Forest as having the sixth-best home-court advantage in the nation at +4.2 points, and it may feel like a tad more than that here given the marquee opponent. As mentioned, North Carolina does not apply much pressure with a defense ranked 301st in turnover percentage forced. That should allow the Demon Deacons to run their offense freely while feeding off the energy of a raucous crowd.
The Pick
In the end, while North Carolina may have a bit more talent, they remain unproven on the road, and this does not seem like the building to get that elusive statement road win.
We are backing Wake Forest to remain unbeaten at home.
Predicted Score: Wake Forest 78 – North Carolina 72
NCAAB Pick: Wake Forest -1 (-105) at Bookmaker
Wisconsin Badgers vs. UCLA Bruins
Tuesday, January 21, 2025 – 09:30 PM ET at Pauley Pavilion
We are expecting a higher-scoring Big Ten battle than this posted total implies in Los Angeles on Tuesday night and are thus backing the Over when Wisconsin visits UCLA.
Faster Pace This Season
Wisconsin comes in at 15-3, with all three losses coming consecutively in early December all to current Kenpom Top 15 teams in Illinois, Michigan and Marquette. They have since regrouped nicely, entering tonight on a 6-game winning streak following an 84-69 win at USC on Saturday. Reaching 80 points has become a new normal for a team averaging 82.4 points for the season.
This is not the same plodding Badgers team that most have become accustomed to. After ranking 336th in the country in average possession length just last season at 19.0 seconds, they have quickened their possessions to 17.4 seconds this season while improving their offensive efficiency ranking to 11th in the country.
Thus, the rise in scoring is not surprising and Wisconsin can find more success tonight against a UCLA defense ranked 113th in eFG% allowed.
Much Better Offense at Home
UCLA has maintained its 31st ranking in Kenpom despite a 12-6 record with five of the losses coming in the last seven games. Most of those struggles came on the road though, and the Bruins returned home last game after losing five of their previous six contests and promptly blew out Iowa 94-70 on Friday.
That continued a pattern of UCLA being significantly more potent offensively here at historic Pauley Pavilion this season. They are 9-1 in this building while averaging 84.2 points per game, nearly nine points higher than their overall average of 75.4 points. We expect that home offensive success to continue tonight against a passive Wisconsin defense ranked 278th in turnover percentage forced.
The Pick
So, in the end, we expect both offenses to do enough to safely clear this seemingly light-posted total, leading us to bet on the Over in Pauley Tuesday night.
Predicted Score: UCLA 78 – Wisconsin 73
NCAAB Pick: Badgers/Bruins Over 140.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
