NCAAB Best Bets for January 23: Illini To Fight Past Terps in Champaign
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LT Profits
- January 23, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Illinois -9 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We continued our winning ways at the top-rated sportsbooks last night going 2-1 in NCAA basketball, putting us at 22-16-1, 57.9% in our last 39 plays. We now return for a big Thursday card that brings us 53 games on the main board.
We again have three best bets based mostly on our proprietary model, comprised of two sides and one total, that we feel hold value at the current betting odds. Our plays are highlighted by a major Big Ten battle on FS1, with the other two games hailing from the West Coast Conference.
Maryland Terrapins vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Thursday, January 23, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at State Farm Center
In a Big Ten matchup of two Kenpom Top 25 teams, we are looking for Illinois to rebound in a big way after losing two of their last three games with an emphatic win over Maryland.
Pushing the Pace
Illinois is 13-5 overall, but they are now 5-3 in Big Ten play after dropping two of their last three, with the first loss being an upset at home to USC.
Their loss in their last game was more acceptable though, coming on the road at Michigan State by just two points 80-78. The Illini are still ranked ninth overall in Kenpom, so they are obviously talented enough to rebound here at home to avoid digging a big hole in the conference standings.
The Illini grade out very well on both ends, ranking 18th in offensive efficiency and 9th in defensive efficiency. Granted their eFG% of 52.7% is only 2% above the national average, but they make up for that with volume, ranking 10th in the land in Tempo Rating.
And that pace has not come at the expense of defense, as Illinois is a sparkling fourth in eFG% allowed, third in 3-point defense and ninth in 2-point defense. They also do not give second chances, ranking sixth in defensive rebounding percentage.
Not Usual Height Advantage
Maryland comes in ranked 24th on Kenpom with a 14-5 record, but they are only 4-4 in Big Ten play.
They are also well-balanced, ranking 35th in offensive efficiency and 23rd in defensive efficiency, although both of those rankings are lower than the Illini’s. The main problem for the Terrapins here though may be the stylistic matchup.
Maryland’s strength is inside, where they rank 44th in 2-point shooting at 56.0% thanks to the massive presence of 6’10” Derik Queen and 6’9” Julian Reese. However, this is a rare case where they cannot use a size advantage to play “bully ball”, as Illinois has its own giant duo of 7’1” Tomislav Ivisic and 6’9” Ben Humrichous.
Furthermore, that big Illini duo plays better defense than the more offensive-minded Maryland bigs, helping account for the lofty 2-point defensive ranking for Illinois.
The Pick
With Illinois having the stylistic advantage, being at home and needing a big win after a mini-slump, we are giving the points to the Illini in Champaign.
Predicted Score: Illinois 84 – Maryland 68
NCAAB Pick: Illinois -9 (-108) at Heritage Sports
Loyola Marymount Lions vs. Pacific Tigers
Thursday, January 23, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at Alex G. Spanos Center
In a matchup of two teams in the bottom half of the WCC, Loyola Marymount has at least beaten some better teams while Pacific has been one of the worst teams in the country. We are betting on the Lions as road favorites.
Weaknesses on Both Sides
Pacific has been a hot mess thus far this season, coming in ranked 300th overall in Kenpom. They are 6-15 overall and 1-6 inside the West Coast Conference with 11 losses in their last 12 games following a 5-4 start. And that unrealistic start was Fool’s Gold, with two wins coming against subdivision teams and two coming against teams currently ranked 312th or worse in Kenpom.
The Tigers have been so bad that even the 300th ranking may be giving too much credit, especially on defense. They are 318th in defensive efficiency, 306th in eFG% allowed, 331st in 3-point defensive and a “better” 245th in 2-point defense. They also apply no pressure, ranking 295th in turnover percentage forced.
The news is not too much better on offense, where Pacific is 242nd in efficiency, 283rd in eFG%, and sloppy with the basketball ranking 240th in turnover rate.
Have Beaten Better
Loyola Marymount has managed a winning 11-8 record overall although they are 3-4 inside the WCC. However, the four losses have all come to the better teams in the conference in Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, San Fransisco and Washington State. They even have nice conference wins against Santa Clara (64th in Kenpom) and Oregon State (63rd).
When you add in a non-conference win over 71st-ranked Nevada, this looks like a bigger mismatch than what the Lions’ overall 148th ranking may suggest.
Granted, the LMU offense is not good either ranking 217th in efficiency and 258th in eFG%, although the terrible Pacific defense has made worse offenses look better. But the Lions can actually play defense, with a better-than-average efficiency rating of 102.6 points per 100 possessions (national average 106.7) and a respectable 76th ranking in eFG% allowed.
The Pick
Thus, we see this as enough of a mismatch that we have no qualms about laying the single-digit spread with Marymount, even on the road.
Predicted Score: Loyola Marymount 79 – Pacific 66
NCAAB Pick: Loyola Marymount -7 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Washington State Cougars vs. Santa Clara Broncos
Thursday, January 23, 2025 – 11:00 PM ET at Leavey Center
This late-night WCC affair features two of the better offenses in the conference facing two defenses that struggle inside. This has us backing the Over when Washington State visits Santa Clara on Thursday.
Potent Home Scoring
Santa Clara enters at 13-7 overall and in a 3-way tie for third in the WCC at 5-2. The Broncos have been carried by their offense, where they rank 46th nationally in efficiency and 56th in eFG%. They have been better overall in 2-point shooting (49th) than 3-point shooting (100th), although that have improved beyond the arc since the start of league play to 36.0% (national average 33.5%).
But make no mistake, Santa Clara’s strength is inside offense, in fact leading the conference in WCC play in 2-point shooting at a massive 60.1%. They just shot 62.1% from inside the arc in an impressive 103-99 road upset win at Gonzaga Saturday, and should be able to dominate inside here against a Washington State team ranked 185th in 2-point defense.
Furthermore, the Broncos have been especially potent here at the Leavey Center this season, averaging 85.3 points per game
8th in 2-Point Shooting
Now, much of what we just said about Santa Clara can also be said about Washington State, who come in at 15-5 and are also part of the 3-way conference tie for third at 5-2. And the strength of the Cougars is also their inside offense.
As good as the Santa Clara offense has been, Washington State actually grades out better ranking 13th in the country in eFG% and an amazing eighth in 2-point shooting at 59.2%. Also like the Broncos, the Cougars have not been as good from 3-point land overall ranking 75th but have vaulted to leading the conference from beyond the arc in league play at 38.8%.
We still feel most of the damage by Wazzou tonight will come closer to the basket though as Santa Clara is 227th in 2-point defense.
The Pick
These teams are like mirror images, with both having potent offenses and weak inside defense. In a game where both squads are capable of reaching 80 points, we are betting on the Over in this spot.
Predicted Score: Santa Clara 86 – Washington State 82
NCAAB Pick: Washington State/Santa Clara Over 158 (-117) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
