NCAAB Best Bets for January 28: Cougars To Claw Past Bears in Provo
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LT Profits
- January 28, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: BYU -3.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We are still a profitable 22-18-2, 55.0% in our last 40 NCAA Basketball plays even after a losing night last Thursday. We return on Tuesday to a nice slate that brings us 29 games on the main board.
We have keyed in on three best bets based mostly on our proprietary model, comprised of two sides and one total, that we feel hold value at the top-rated sportsbooks. All our plays hail from major conferences, with one each from the SEC, Big East and Big 12.
Make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for alternative betting angles.
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Tuesday, January 28, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Stegeman Coliseum
Georgia and South Carolina both enter this SEC battle on losing streaks, but at least Georgia has a valid excuse after losing to three Top 6 Kenpom teams in the last four games. We are backing the Bulldogs to take advantage of this class drop with a double-digit home win.
Winless in SEC
South Carolina comes in on a 7-game losing streak after a 10-3 start against a weak non-conference schedule, and they are the only winless team in the SEC at 0-7.
Yes, they play in the best conference in the country, but they did not beat much out of conference either. They have just one win over a team currently ranked better than 176th in Kenpom and they even had an embarrassing home loss to 231st ranked North Florida.
The Gamecocks prefer a slow pace as they are 277th in Tempo Rating, but they combine that with poor shooting, which makes it hard to score points against any decent defense. They rank 224th in eFG%, 200th in 3-point shooting and 206th in 2-point offense while also lacking in ball control, ranking 283rd in turnover percentage. The result has been averaging only 70.9 points per game overall despite the soft non-conference schedule.
We simply do not see how that limited Cocks offense will score much of anything against a Georgia defense ranked 18th in efficiency and 13th in eFG% allowed while beating much better teams.
Finally, a Breather?
Now, Georgia is on a 4-game losing streak of its own to fall to 14-6 overall and 2-5 in conference. However, three of the four losses were to Top 6 teams as mentioned earlier in #1 Auburn, #4 Florida and #6 Tennessee. And even the fourth loss during the streak was not a terrible one by three points on the road visiting a #57 Arkansas team that has a strong home-court advantage.
We expect the Bulldogs to take advantage of this huge class drop at home hosting the 78th-ranked Gamecocks who, in our mind, probably do not deserve even that modest ranking. Also, unlike South Carolina, Georgia has five Kenpom Top 100 wins in their resume, including beating 18th-ranked St. John’s on a neutral floor out of conference and a 13-point win over 22nd-ranked Kentucky in conference.
And the Dawgs should be highly motivated to take out some frustrations and end the 4-game skid here as they have a tough date at #9 Alabama up next.
The Pick
The bottom line here is Georgia is the higher ranked team (41st vs. 78th), they are at home, they have a very good defense facing a poor offense and they are highly motivated to win this game to avoid a potential 6-game skid with Bama next.
That combination has us betting on the Bulldogs as home favorites in Athens.
Predicted Score: Georgia 75 – South Carolina 61
NCAAB Pick: Georgia -7.5 (-109) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Butler Bulldogs
Tuesday, January 28, 2025 – 08:30 PM ET at Hinkle Fieldhouse
We think that Marquette can name the score when visiting Butler at Hinkle Fieldhouse on Tuesday, and while we have no desire to lay the points on the road, we think they will do enough of the heavy lifting to key a safe Over.
No Resistance Expected
Marquette is now up to 12th in the country overall in Kenpom, coming in at 17-3 overall and 8-1 in the Big East with the only conference loss being by two points to Xavier. This is a very well-balanced team that ranks 26th in offensive efficiency and 13th in defensive efficiency, but the offensive side is the key to our Over play tonight.
That is because they simply do not turn the ball over with point guard Kam Jones, who is ranked fifth in Kenpom’s Player of the Year Ratings, running the offense. In fact, the Golden Eagles lead the nation in lowest turnover percentage at a mere 13.1% against a national average of 17.6%.
That takes on added significance here because Butler is 361st out of 364 teams in Division I in turnover percentage forced defensively at 11.4%. That means Marquette should face basically no resistance here in running whatever offense they want, so we can easily see the Eagles getting into the 80s in this game.
May Not Need Much
Butler is having a tough year at 9-11 overall and 2-7 in the Big East with both wins coming against teams in the bottom half of the conference in Seton Hall in DePaul. However, if we are correct about Marquette reaching 80 points and with this posted total currently at a consensus of 147, it would mean the Bulldogs would only need to clear 67 points to cash the Over.
As good as the Marquette defense is, we feel that the 67-point benchmark is attainable, especially with the Golden Eagles assumingly playing with a lead most of this game and thus not needing to exert too much energy on defense. After all, the Bulldogs have exceeded 67 points in 15 of their 20 games while scoring less than 65 points only twice.
Furthermore, Butler is averaging 74.6 points per game here at Hinkle despite their uncharacteristically mediocre 7-5 home record.
The Pick
In summary, Marquette should be able to do whatever it wants offensively with an output in the mid-80s not out of reach, and Butler can do its part on the scoreboard playing at home. Therefore, bet on the Over in Indianapolis on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Marquette 84 – Butler 73
NCAAB Pick: Marquette/Butler Over 147 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Baylor Bears vs. BYU Cougars
Tuesday, January 28, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at Marriott Center
In a Big 12 matchup of two teams rated closely on Kenpom, BYU is the better shooting team by far and they have been dominant at home. The Cougars are getting our call as a moderate favorite hosting Baylor in Provo.
Lethal at Home
BYU comes in 13-6 overall and 4-4 in conference play, and they are ranked 31st overall in Kenpom. This is definitely a team fueled by its offense, ranking 17th nationally in offensive efficiency and 11th in eFG%. And they shoot well from all points of the floor ranking ninth in 2-point shooting at 58.3% and 43rd in 3-point shooting at 37.1%.
Furthermore, the Cougars have been dominant at home, going 10-1 with an average winning margin of +26.3 points! They have not been feasting exclusively on cupcakes either, as they have beaten Arizona State by 20 points, Oklahoma State by 16 and most recently Cincinnati by 28 in this building on Saturday.
As good as their offense has been overall, producing 80.4 points per game, that average is seven points higher at an impressive 87.7 in Provo. Moreover, the defense has been good enough given that firepower, ranking a decent 63rd in efficiency keyed by ranking an outstanding fourth in defensive rebounding percentage.
Not as Many Second Chances
Now, Baylor is an identical 13-6 while sitting one game better in the Big 12 at 5-3 and with a slightly higher 26th ranking in Kenpom. However, they are only 2-4 in true road games and the much worse shooting team here, ranking 86th in eFG%, 128th in 2-point shooting (52.4%) and 80th in 3-point shooting (35.8%).
Yet, the Bears are 14th in offensive efficiency mainly due to second chances generated by ranking 22nd in offensive rebounding percentage. That makes this a poor matchup for them though, as they cannot expect to get as many second chances as usual facing one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country as mentioned earlier.
And the news is not much better on the defensive end where Baylor is 230th in eFG% allowed and a distressing 331st in 3-point defense.
The Pick
We are looking for BYU to continue its home dominance while taking away Baylor’s biggest strength on the offensive glass. Thus, we are laying the manageable spread with the Cougars at home on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: BYU 78 – Baylor 69
NCAAB Pick: BYU -3.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
