NCAAB Best Bets for January 29: Terrapins To Earn Badges Over Wisconsin
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LT Profits
- January 29, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Maryland -5 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We went a successful 2-0-1 in NCAA Basketball last night, putting us at 24-18-3, 57.1% in our last 45 plays at the top-rated sportsbooks. We now return again on Wednesday to a college slate that brings us 40 games on the main board.
We have isolated three best bets as usual based mostly on our proprietary model, comprised of two sides and one total, that we feel hold value at the current betting odds. We are digging a bit seep on Wednesday with only one major-conference play from the Big Ten, as our other two selections hail from the AAc and the Mountain West.
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Maryland Terrapins
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at XFINITY Center
We have a nice Kenpom Top 25 battle between two hot teams in the Big Ten on Wednesday, where we expect Minnesota to prevail safely at home over Wisconsin.
Should Dominate Second Chances
Maryland returns home after a couple of nice road wins at Illinois (ranked 11th on Kenpom) and Indiana, leaving them at 16-5 overall and 6-4 inside the Big Ten.
The Terrapins are now up to 21st overall on Kenpom and they should relish being back in familiar surroundings, as they are 12-1 here in College Park. Furthermore, the only loss has aged very well, coming back in November 78-74 to Marquette (now #13 Kenpom).
The Terps effectively play two centers in 6’10” Derik Queen and 6’9” Julian Reese, and that size has led to success in both ends with Maryland ranking 20th in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive efficiency. They should dominate the second-chance opportunities in this game with Wisconsin ranking just 234th in offensive rebounding percentage, and those extra possessions should prove key in an otherwise close battle.
Not Enough Pressure
Wisconsin is also hot as they are 16-4 overall and 6-3 in the conference after winning eight of their last nine games, helping them climb to 17th in Kenpom.
They have the better offensive efficiency ranking in this game at eighth in the land, although their 49th ranking defensively lags behind Maryland. It is also worth noting that they are only 2-4 in true road games with the best win coming against 67th-ranked USC.
Besides being unproven against stiff competition on the road and the aforementioned lack of offensive rebounding, the main reason for the Badgers’ mediocre defensive efficiency is a lack of pressure. They are only 286th in turnover percentage forced, which means that Maryland should be able to constantly find great looks for their two big men near the basket.
The Pick
These teams are very good in efficiency components on both ends with two exceptions, and unfortunately for Wisconsin, both exceptions belong to them in offensive rebounding and turnovers forced on defense. Add in a strong home court and we are betting on Maryland as moderate favorites Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Maryland 82 – Wisconsin 72
NCAAB Pick: Maryland -5 (-105) at BetOnline
Charlotte 49ers vs. Temple Owls
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Liacouras Center
We are venturing into the AAC on Wednesday, where we expect a higher scoring game than the posted total implies in Philadelphia and are thus betting the Over when Charlotte visits Temple.
Averaging 84 Points at Home
Temple comes in at 12-8 overall and 4-3 in the AAC, and they are welcoming this return home after losing their last two games on the road at North Texas and UTSA. And they are getting a seemingly nice matchup here taking on a Charlotte team ranked 251st in defensive efficiency and 236th in eFG% allowed.
Now granted, the Owls rank a nondescript 116th in offensive efficiency at 109.8 points per 100 possessions, but that is still above the national average of 106.4 points and the unit get a bump with the soft opposing defense here. Even more importantly, the Temple offense has been much better at home, now averaging 84.0 points per game after topping 80 points in each of the last four games at the Liacouras Center.
Moreover, the Owls topped 90 points in two games during this streak against Wichita State and Buffalo, and they can approach 90 again here against a 49ers defense ranked 333rd in turnover percentage forced.
May Not Need Much
Now, we totally get that Charlotte is 223rd in offensive efficiency and 304th in eFG%, helping to account for their 8-12 overall record and 1-6 conference mark. They finally got that initial conference win in their last game 69-61 over South Florida last Wednesday, meaning they have had a full week off to prepare for this contest.
But, if we are right about Temple at least getting into the mid-80s here, then another output in the upper 60s would be good enough to clear this Over. Well, as awful as the 49ers have been offensively while ranking 284th in the country in scoring, that average of 70.3 points would probably be good enough for our Over ticket.
And let us not forget that the full week to prepare could allow for adding some new wrinkles against a Temple defense that does not force many turnovers either, ranking 274th in that department.
The Pick
So, what we have here is a Temple offense that has been potent at home, two passive defenses that do not force many turnovers, and a well-rested Charlotte team capable of showing improvement on offense. All of this has us backing the Over in this spot.
Predicted Score: Temple 88 – Charlotte 69
NCAAB Pick: Charlotte/Temple Over 147.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Boise State Broncos
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at ExtraMile Arena
The Mountain West Conference is generally known for having strong home court advantages across the league, and we are going with that trend here by backing Boise State to win by double digits over Nevada.
Best 2-Point Shooting
Boise comes in at 13-7 overall and 5-4 inside the MWC, ranking 53rd overall in Kenpom.
They have lost three of their last four games, but typical of teams in this conference, all three losses came on the road with a home win over Wyoming sandwiched in between. In fact, Boise State is 8-1 this season here at ExtraMile Arena with the only loss coming to the highest ranked team in the conference in Kenpom in San Diego State.
The Broncos can dominate inside in this contest with an offense ranked 38th nationally in efficiency, mainly due ranking 26th in 2-point shooting at 57.0%. They can take advantage of a suspect Nevada interior defense ranked 120th in 2-point defense allowing a 49.2% success rate.
Furthermore, that advantage for Boise State is more glaring when looking at the numbers during conference play. You see, the Broncos lead the conference in 2-point shooting at a whopping 60.4%, while the Wolfpack are eighth in the MWC defensively at a disturbing 52,9%.
Exposed in Conference?
Nevada was considered a contender for the Mountain West title before the season, but they have had a disappointing year going just 11-9 overall and 3-6 in conference, resulting in an 84th Kenpom ranking. Their overall numbers have them at a commendable 68th in offensive efficiency and 48th in eFG%, but their offense has taken a major step back since the start of Mountain play.
They are coming off an ugly 69-50 hone loss to San Diego State while shooting an abysmal 29.4% form the floor. Yes, it would be very easy to write off that season low 50-point total against one of the nest defenses in the nation as an anomaly, except for the fact that the Wolfpack’s offensive struggles in league play were not a one-off.
The Pack rank seventh in the 11-tean MWC in offensive efficiency, eighth in eFG% and 10th in 3-point shooting. Their “strength” has been a middling sixth in 2-point shooting at an ordinary 50.8%, and they have even been sloppy with the basketball ranking ninth in turnover percentage.
The Pick
In summary, the offensive difference between the two teams has surfaced in a big way during conference play in favor of Boise State. Add in their strong home court and we have no qualms about laying these points in this spot.
Predicted Score: Boise State 77 – Nevada 63
NCAAB Pick: Boise State -8 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
