NCAAB Best Bets for January 30: Nittany Lions To Roar at Home
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LT Profits
- January 30, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Penn State -2.5 (-115) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We nailed the 3-0 NCAA Basketball sweep last night, leaving us 5-0-1 so far this week and 27-18-3, 60.0% in our last 48 plays at the top-rated sportsbooks. We are back again Thursday for a big college card that brings us 48 games on the main board.
We are keen on three best bets as usual based mostly on our proprietary model, comprised of one side and two totals that we feel hold value at the current betting odds. We have two selections from the Big Ten, as well as one nationally televised mid-major matchup between two of the best teams in the AAC.
And make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on the Ohio State vs. Penn State and Illinois vs. Nebraska games.
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Thursday, January 30, 2025 – 06:30 PM ET at Bryce Jordan Center
We have been down on this Ohio State team all season, and we are fading them again on Thursday by backing Penn State as small home favorites at the Bryce Jordan Center.
Can Keep Pace Offensively
Penn State comes in at 13-6 overall and a disappointing 3-7 in Big Ten play, yet they remain a very respectable 44th overall in Kenpom. That ranking recognizes that besides two games against Rutgers, every other conference game the Nittany Lions have played so far has been against teams that currently have winning Big Ten records. Surprisingly enough, Ohio State can be considered a step down in that sense with the Buckeyes at 4-5.
Furthermore, the Lions are returning home following 2 road losses, and they are 10-1 in this building with the only loss being by just one point 82-81 to Oregon. They rank a good 41st in the country in offensive efficiency overall at 116.2 points per 100 possessions, which is nearly identical to Ohio State’s efficiency of 116.5 points. However, the PSU offense has been better at home averaging 84.3 points per game.
They are also 32nd nationally in 2-point shooting and have the potential to dominate a relatively small Buckeyes lineup. That is mainly due to the presence of 7’0” Yanic Konan Niederhauser, who is shooting 62.7% from the field this year mostly within a few feet of the basket.
Turnovers the Deciding Factor?
Ohio State has failed to live up to preseason expectations at 12-8 and the losing 4-5 conference record mentioned earlier. Yet, they upset Purdue (8th on Kenpom) on the road two games ago before a second straight win at home over Iowa following a 2-5 start in the Big Ten.
Is it possible that the Buckeyes have discovered something and are ready to turn things around? Maybe, maybe not, but regardless of that, this remains a tough matchup for them stylistically. Besides not being able to match up with Niederhauser with no starter taller than 6’6”, Ohio State has been very sloppy with the basketball during Big Ten play, ranking 18th (dead last) in turnover percentage at 19.5% (national average 17.6%).
What makes that extra distressing for this game is Penn State is third in the conference in turnover percentage forced defensively at 19.4%!
The Pick
So, despite Ohio State showing signs of life the last two games, they remain maddeningly inconsistent, and we think they have too much to overcome with all those expected turnovers against a great home team.
We are betting on Penn State as small home chalk.
Predicted Score: Penn State 82 – Ohio State 73
NCAAB Pick: Penn State -2.5 (-115) at Bookmaker
Memphis Tigers vs. Tulane Green Wave
Thursday, January 30, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at Devlin Fieldhouse
The AAC is getting some national TV love on Thursday night on ESPN2, and we are betting on the Over in what should be an entertaining battle when Memphis visits Tulane at Fogelman Arena.
Highest Ranked AAC Team
Memphis enters at 16-4 overall and 6-1 in conference, one-half game behind surprising North Texas (7-1). The Tigers remain the only ranked AAC team in the AP Poll though at 19th overall, and while they rank lower in Kenpom at 40th, they are still the highest ranked team there from the conference, 11 spots higher than North Texas in 51st.
The Tigers are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country, ranking sixth nationally at 39.5%. As you might expect, they rank second inside the AAC in eFG% and even second in 2-point shooting at 56.6%, making this a very difficult team to defend. That better inside shooting in league play becomes a factor here against a Tulane defense that is 11th in the conference in 2-point defense.
The Green Wave is second in 3-point defense though, so early inside success by Memphis may be pivotal to opening things up for their great shooters beyond the arc. And let us not forget that the Tigers just hit the century mark in a 100-77 demolition of UAB on Sunday.
Lead Conference in eFG%
You may have noticed that for all their offensive success this season from all points of the floor, we mentioned that Memphis is second inside the AAC in eFG%. If you are wondering who is first, well that would be their opponents tonight from Tulane!
The Green Wave are only 11-9 overall, but they are third in the conference at 5-2 and would technically pass Memphis with a win tonight, as the teams would be tied but Tulane would have the head-to-head win. And that conference record has been keyed by an offense ranked third in the league in efficiency while leading in 2-point shooting at 57.4%.
The end result of that is averaging 79.4 points per game during conference play, which is actually slightly ahead of Memphis’s league average of 79.0 points. However, while Tulane can score, they are only 156th in defensive efficiency, and that may decide this game on the court.
The Pick
Still, we do foresee offensive success from both sides here, and that has us banking on the Over in New Orleans Thursday on ESPN2.
Predicted Score: Memphis 83 – Tulane 78
NCAAB Pick: Memphis/Tulane Over 151 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Oregon Ducks vs. UCLA Bruins
Thursday, January 30, 2025 – 10:30 PM ET at Pauley Pavilion
We expect the scoreboard operator to be kept relatively busy in a late-night Big Ten battle Thursday between two former Pac-12 rivals. Thus, we are supporting the Over with Oregon visiting UCLA.
High Scoring at Home
UCLA comes in at 15-6 overall, and after a slow start in conference play in their first season in the Big Ten during which coach Mick Cronin called them “soft”, they have won four straight games to improve to 6-4. The Bruins still have a large home/away scoring variance however, so being home here should help in that regard.
You see, UCLA is averaging only 75.9 points per game overall, but that average jumps all the way up to 84.3 points here at historic Pauley Pavilion, where they are 10-1 while losing only to Michigan. It also helps to be facing an Oregon defense that has not applied much pressure during conference play, ranking 13th in the league in turnovers forced.
Speaking of defense, the Bruins rank 20th nationally in defensive efficiency but only 160th in eFG% allowed. That efficiency ranking is fueled by ranking third in the country in turnover percentage forced, but opponents are hitting their shots when not being turned over.
Can Succeed Beyond the Arc
Oregon is also in their first season in the Big Ten, and they come in at 16-4 overall and ranked 29th in Kenpom despite a mediocre 5-4 conference mark. They have been well-balanced ranking 32nd in offensive efficiency and 40th in defensive efficiency, although it is probably the offense that needs to carry the load tonight considering how good the UCLA offense has been at home.
As mentioned earlier, UCLA allows shooting success when not turning teams over and that has been even more pronounced inside Big Ten play. You see, the Bruins are second within the conference in turnovers forced, but 15th in eFG% allowed! As long as Oregon limits turnovers, they have a path to offensive success here, especially from beyond the 3-point arc where the Bruins are 15th in 3-point defense allowing a 36.9% success rate.
The Pick
So, the bottom line here is we expect UCLA to continue their home-scoring success while also expecting Oregon to hang around in this game with 3-point shooting. With our projected total being about 10 points higher than this posted total, bet on
the Over at Pauley Pavilion.
Predicted Score: UCLA 79 – Oregon 72
NCAAB Pick: Oregon/UCLA Over 140.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
