NCAAB Best Bets for January 7: Hawkeyes Fly Over Cornhuskers in Iowa
-
LT Profits
- January 7, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Iowa -4 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We are now 12-6, 66.7% in our last 18 NCAA Basketball plays at top-rated sportsbooks, and we make our return for a nice Tuesday slate that has 33 games on the main board as conference play starts hitting its full stride.
We have identified three best bets based mostly on our proprietary model, all three of which are sides that we feel all hold value at the current betting odds. As it turns out, we are betting on three home teams that we all expect to take full advantage of their familiar surroundings.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. For today, our expert covered the Tennessee vs. Florida game.
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Tuesday, January 07, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Carver-Hawkeye Arena
Iowa comes off a 116-85 loss at Wisconsin to fall to 1-2 in Big Ten play, but we like their offense to key a strong bounce-back effort at home. We are backing the Hawkeyes to avoid a deep early conference hole when hosting Nebraska on Tuesday.
Failed to Score 80 Just Twice
Iowa is 10-4, and both of their conference losses came to Kenpom Top 25 teams in Michigan (#13) and Wisconsin (#21). They are always tough at home and they are 8-1 here this season with the only loss coming to an Iowa State team ranked fifth in Kenpom and third in the AP Poll.
The Hawkeyes even scored 80 points in that loss against an Iowa State squad that is ninth nationally in defensive efficiency. Iowa can score on anyone, reaching at least 80 points in all but two of their 14 games.
That is what happens when you rank fourth in the country in eFG% while protecting the ball well, ranking seventh in offensive turnover percentage. And what makes that low turnover rate more impressive is it comes over a lot of possessions, with Iowa ranked 18th in Tempo Rating. This is a deadly shooting team from all points of the floor, ranking 10th in 2-point shooting and 25th in 3-point shooting.
That 3-point shooting should play a key role tonight.
Both Losses Away from Home
Don’t take anything away from Nebraska, as they are 12-2 and ranked 33rd overall in Kenpom, entering on a 6-game winning streak.
However, they have had a home-dominated early schedule with both of their losses coming away from Lincoln. Even during the winning streak, the only road win was against a Hawaii team ranked 175th in Kenpom, so this is a much tougher trip.
Stylistically, this also looks like a tough matchup for the Cornhuskers.
They do not get many second chances, ranking 240th in offensive rebounding percentage, which becomes more concerning here with their eFG% ranking of 102nd being much worse than Iowa. They are vulnerable against good 3-point shooting teams since their style of defense gives long-range shots, ranking 355th in 3PA/FGA percentage.
The Pick
That makes Nebraska’s 34th-ranked 3-point defense skewed by not facing many great 3-point shooting teams. That is not the case tonight, so look for the Iowa offense to carry them to a safe victory at home.
Predicted Score: Iowa 88 – Nebraska 78
NCAAB Pick: Iowa -4 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
Tuesday, January 07, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at Memorial Gymnasium (TN)
In a battle of two 13-1 teams that have had their offensive success in different ways, we are betting on Vanderbilt as small home underdogs when they host Mississippi State in Nashville.
Should Push Pace
Vanderbilt has been a pleasant surprise as they are now up to 47th overall in Kenpom after beginning the season 95th.
Yes, they have a small lineup, but it is very unique in that all five starters are capable of playing point guard, and their quickness has thus far offset the obvious height advantages of their opponents. That quickness has allowed them to force the pace, with Vandy ranking 31st in Tempo Rating.
The unique lineup also has the Commodores ranked 28th in offensive efficiency and 34th in eFG%. They are an outstanding third in turnover percentage at a mere 13.3% (national average 17.7%) despite the quick tempo, which is a direct effect of having five good ball handlers on the floor. They almost always work for the best shot, as they are an amazing eighth in 2-point shooting at 59.9% in spite of always playing “small-ball”.
Free Throws Matter
The other 13-1 team in this matchup is Mississippi State, which opened as a small underdog in this game but has now moved to a 2-point favorite. While we respect that the Bulldogs are ranked 15th in Kenpom and 14th in the AP Poll, we disagree with that line move in what should be a rowdy road atmosphere.
MSU actually ranks lower in this contest in eFG% (60th) and 2-point shooting (49th), and they are not a good 3-point shooting team at 142nd. They do not play as fast as Vanderbilt and may be vulnerable against a Dores’ team that also uses its quickness on defense, ranking third in steal percentage at 15.1% (national average 9.9%).
And let us not forget that the Bulldogs are a poor free-throw shooting team ranking 261st at 69.2%, which could loom large in a close game.
The Pick
We think that the opening line with Vanderbilt being a short home favorite was the accurate one, so we will gladly now take the points with the Commodores as small dogs.
Predicted Score: Vanderbilt 83 – Mississippi State 78
NCAAB Pick: Vanderbilt +2 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. BYU Cougars
Tuesday, January 07, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at Marriott Center
Texas Tech may be the higher-ranked team in this game per Kenpom, but Provo is always a tough place to play, so we are backing BYU as small favorites playing at home.
Strong Home Court Advantage
BYU comes in at 10-3 and they will welcome facing a drop in class defensively after scoring just 55 points against one of the best defenses in the country in Houston on Saturday. They will also welcome returning to one of the strongest home courts in the country, where their HCA of a full +4.0 ranks 11th per Kenpom.
It has been more of the same this season with the Cougars being a perfect 8-0 at home including an easy 76-56 win over Arizona State in their Big 12 opener prior to the road loss at Houston. The win over ASU marked the first time BYU scored less than 86 points at home all season, but they cruised with the lead from start to finish in that 20-point triumph and undoubtedly could have scored more in a closer game.
The Cougs rank 39th in offensive efficiency and 23rd in eFG%, and they are also one of the best rebounding teams in the land, in fact leading the country in defensive rebounding percentage while ranking 26th in offensive rebounding percentage.
Difficulty Defending Perimeter
Texas Tech is also 10-3 and ranked 14th in Kenpom, but we do not believe that ranking is warranted as they have not beaten much and had yet to win a true road game until winning at Utah on Saturday. The Utes are only ranked 90th in Kenpom though, so this assignment is much tougher visiting a better team with an enormous home-court advantage.
Also, the Red Raiders did beat up on a soft non-conference schedule ranked 324th per Kenpom. In fact, 90th-ranked Utah was the first Kenpom Top100 team the Raiders have beaten all season. By comparison, BYU is ranked 39th overall. And despite not facing many good teams, Texas Tech ranks 229th in 3-point defense, an obvious concern against a great shooting team like BYU.
The Pick
This line simply seems too light to us, given BYU’s offensive prowess at home and Texas Tech’s numbers padded by weak competition. We are laying the small spot with the Cougars at the Marriott Center.
Predicted Score: BYU 82 – Texas Tech 73
NCAAB Pick: BYU -3 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
