NCAAB Best Bets for March 4: Commodores to Feast on Hogs at Home
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LT Profits
- March 4, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Vanderbilt -6.5 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We are still a solid 47-37-3, 56.0% in our last 87 NCAA Basketball bets despite a dismal night in our last college hoops card last Thursday. We are now back at the top-rated sportsbooks for a Tuesday slate that has 38 games on the main board, including a couple of non-major conference tournaments.
We have zoomed in on three best bets for Tuesday based mostly on our proprietary model, comprised of two sides and one total, that we feel all hold value at the current betting odds. We have two major conference selections from the Big Ten and SEC, with our third bet coming in the MAC.
Bowling Green Falcons vs. Northern Illinois Huskies
Tuesday, March 04, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at NIU Convocation Center
While many casual bettors would ignore a matchup between the ninth and last place teams in the 12-team MAC, we actually see a nice opportunity in this spot. Northern Illinois and Bowling Green have two of the worst defenses in the country, and we are banking on a replay of the first meeting this season that cruised Over the total.
Combined for 161 Points First Meeting
Northern Illinois is not only dead last in the MAC at 1-15, but they are also one of the worst teams in the country at 5-24 overall and ranked 351st in Kenpom. They are horrific on both ends of the floor, but our focus here is on a defense that ranks 305th in efficiency, 296th in eFG% allowed, 347th in 3-point defense and 208th in 2-point defense. All that has led to ranking 314th in the nation in points allowed at 76.9 per game.
Granted, the Huskies are just as bad metrically offensively, where they are averaging just 71 points per game. However, they are facing another bad defense here, so going two points above that average to 73 points in this game is not inconceivable. The significance of that is scoring 73 points in a game they figure to lose would guarantee an Over with this posted total currently available at 145.
For reference, look back no further than the first meeting between these teams this season at Bowling Green on February 4th, won by the Falcons 84-77. Those 161 points smashed that total and we do not expect too much difference tonight.
Cheap Points at the Foul Line
Bowling Green is certainly the better team here at 13-16 overall and 7-9 inside the MAC, but as demonstrated in that first meeting, they do not play much defense either. They are ranked 241st in defensive efficiency and 272nd in eFG% allowed. That leaves them 249th in points allowed at 74.1 per game, which again would ensure an Over in a game that they should win.
Now, some may point out that the 84 points scored by the Falcons in the recent February meeting was aided by going 20-for-26 from the foul line. Well, while that is true, it was not an anomaly. That is because BGSU usually gets to the foul line a lot, ranking second in the MAC in FTA/FGA ratio during league play at 38.1% (national average 33.0%).
The Pick
The bottom line here is that these two defenses are so bad that each offense should do enough to push this game Over, just like in the first meeting. Thus, bet the Over in DeKalb on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Bowling Green 80 – Northern Illinois 75
NCAAB Pick: Bowling Green/Northern Illinois Over 145 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Oregon Ducks
Tuesday, March 04, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at Matthew Knight Arena
We have a game with major seeding implications in the Big Ten on Tuesday with eighth-place Oregon hosting ninth-place Indiana. And we are betting on the Ducks as home favorites in Eugene.
Won 5 Straight
Oregon comes in at a good 21-8 overall and 10-8 in the Big Ten, leaving them ranked 33rd overall in Kenpom. They have been far from consistent, however, as they were 16-3 before running into a 5-game losing streak. To their credit, though, they have regrouped well by following up that skid with their current 5-game winning streak, highlighted by an impressive road win at Wisconsin (#10 in Kenpom).
The Ducks are a solid team on both ends of the court, ranking 35th nationally in offensive efficiency and 40th in defensive efficiency. While they do not excel in any one category, they are consistently “green” across all the Kenpom components.
Their most important trait in regard to this game is probably their ball protection, where they are better than average at 15.9% (national average 17.3%). They have an excellent chance to improve on that already good figure tonight, facing a passive Indiana defense.
No Defensive Pressure
Indiana enters at 18-11 overall, 9-9 inside the conference and ranked 10 spots below Oregon in Kenpom at #43. They, too, rank relatively well on both sides at 58th in offensive efficiency and 45th in defensive efficiency, but note that they trail the Ducks in both rankings, especially on offense.
Also, while the Ducks are good in all categories, IU has one major weakness on each end.
We already referenced their passiveness on defense, where they are 243rd in turnover percentage forced at 16.3%, as well as 12th inside the Big Ten at a worse 15.9%. And as for the offensive end, they are a poor 3-point shooting team, ranking 250th in the country at 32.4% (national average 33.8%).
The Hoosiers did begin their first ever west coast trip inside the conference with a 78-62 win at Washington Saturday, but that was against a Huskies team ranked 104th in Kenpom, while this is a much more hostile environment.
The Pick
The bottom line here is that Oregon grades out better on both ends of the court; they are at home and they have nice momentum with their 5-game win streak. That has us backing the Ducks at Knight Arena on Tuesday night.
Predicted Score: Oregon 82 – Indiana 70
NCAAB Pick: Oregon -6 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
Tuesday, March 04, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at Memorial Gymnasium (TN)
Vanderbilt has been one of the biggest surprises in the country this season, and we are backing them to win handily at home on Tuesday, hosting an Arkansas team that has a severe home/away variance.
Turnover Edge on Both Ends
Vanderbilt starts a unique small lineup where every starter is capable of playing point guard, and that group has produced an unexpected 20-9 record while going 8-8 inside the best conference in the country, the SEC. They come in on a 3-game winning streak with all three wins coming against teams in the Kenpom Top 30, including beating #12 Missouri here at home Saturday.
Having five ball-handlers on the floor has led to the Commodores ranking 25th in the country in turnover percentage, a key factor to their remarkable 19th ranking in offensive efficiency despite being out-sized in practically every game. The quickness of that small lineup has also led to ranking 19th in steal percentage defensively at 13.1% (national average 9.8%), as well as a good 37th ranking in turnover percentage forced.
Vandy is also 14-2 here at home with an average winning margin of +14.7 points.
Not as Good on Road
Arkansas is a mediocre 17-12 overall and just 6-10 inside the SEC, and while they have one of the biggest home-court advantages in the nation (17th per Kenpom), they are just 3-6 on the road. Now, we get that most road trips in the SEC are brutal, but the Razorbacks have lost to the likes of LSU (77th in Kenpom) and South Carolina (#67), with that latter loss just coming on Saturday by an ugly 72-53 score.
Interestingly, while Arkansas obviously has the height advantage here as just about all the Dores’ opponents do, the Hogs have actually been terrible in creating second chances, ranking 271st in offensive rebounding percentage! Without those second chances, this game could potentially get out of hand quickly with the Razorbacks being ranked considerably lower than Vandy in offensive efficiency at 94th.
And as we alluded to earlier, that difference gets compounded with Arkansas being on the road.
The Pick
So, what we have here is a higher-ranked Vanderbilt team that has been great at home hosting an Arkansas team that has struggled on the road. Add in an expected turnover edge for Vandy and the Razorbacks not having as big a rebounding edge as you would think, and we are giving the points with the Commodores at home.
Predicted Score: Vanderbilt 84 – Arkansas 72
NCAAB Pick: Vanderbilt -6.5 (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
