NCAAB Best Bets for March 5: Tide to Roll Past Gators in Tuscaloosa
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LT Profits
- March 5, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Alabama -2.5 (-108) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We remain a solid 48-39-3, 55.2% in our last 80 NCAA Basketball plays after a lackluster 1-2 evening last night. We now return for a relatively small Wednesday card that has 26 games on the main board, with odds from top sportsbooks, although it does include mostly major conference games as well as three non-major tournaments.
As usual, we have isolated three best bets for the Wednesday slate based mostly on our proprietary model, comprised of two sides and one total, that we feel all hold value at the current betting odds. All three of our selections hail from major conferences, as they come from the SEC, Big 12, and Big Ten. And check out our YouTube channel for more value picks, featuring the Florida vs. Alabama and Marquette vs. UConn games.
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Florida Gators vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Wednesday, March 05, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Coleman Coliseum
In a marquee Top 10 SEC battle Wednesday night, we are counting on the highest scoring team in the country in Alabama to cover as modest home favorites in Tuscaloosa hosting Florida.
Lead Country in Scoring
Alabama comes in at 23-6 overall and 12-4 in the SEC, leaving them ranked sixth in Kenpom and seventh in the AP Poll. This team is fueled by having the best offense in the country, led by superstar guard Mark Sears, who currently ranks sixth in Kenpom’s Player of the Year rankings.
The Crimson Tide play at the fastest pace in the country with a Tempo Rating of 75.0, and they rank third in offensive efficiency. As you might expect with that combination, they lead the country in scoring at a robust 91.0 points per game. They are 12th in eFG% and practically unstoppable closer to the basket, ranking second in the land in 2-point shooting at 60.1%.
Moreover, on the rare occasions when they miss shots, they are also an excellent 21st in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage!
Furthermore, it is not as if the Tide do not play defense either, as they are 35th in defensive efficiency and 30th in eFG% allowed.
Don’t Force Turnovers
Now, do not get us wrong, as we have a load of respect for Florida also. After all, they do rank ahead of Alabama at fourth in Kenpom and sixth in the AP Poll at 25-4 overall while even with the Crimson Tide inside the best conference in the country at 12-4. And they too rank a very high fourth nationally in offensive efficiency.
However, the Gators are not quite as good a shooting team as Alabama as they are 52nd in eFG%. They are 42nd in 2-point shooting, and while their 3-poing percentage of 35.4% is slightly better than the Tide’s 35.2%, it is Alabama that has made more 3-pointers due to their frenetic pace.
But the biggest concern for Florida is on the defensive end where they are only 123rd in turnover percentage forced, which may be their ultimate death blow this game against an amazing offense.
So, in a game where both offenses figure to score their share of points, we see the lack of pressure applied by the Florida defense allowing Alabama to reach 90 points in this game. Thus, bet on the Crimson Tide as small home favorites in Coleman Coliseum.
Predicted Score: Alabama 91 – Florida 83
NCAAB Pick: Alabama -2.5 (-108) at Bookmaker
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
Wednesday, March 05, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Fifth Third Arena
We feel that the posted total seems relatively light in a Big 12 Battle of the Cats on Wednesday. Therefore, we are betting on the Over when the Cincinnati Bearcats host the Kansas State Wildcats.
Scoring More Lately
Cincinnati comes in at 17-12 overall but with a losing 7-11 record inside the contentious Big 12. Their overall Kenpom rank of 49th however suggests that they still have a chance at making the NCAA Tournament if they win their last two regular season games and then have a good showing in the Big 12 Tournament.
So, while the odds of making the Big Dance seem slim, at least that small chance should keep the Bearcats motivated. This is a team that grades out better defensively than offensively, ranking 55th in eFG% allowed but only 132nd in eFG% offensively. However, their overall offensive figure of 51.8% is still slightly higher than the national average of 50.9%, and Cincinnati has made nice strides in scoring recently.
Sure, they come off a 73-64 loss at Houston, but scoring 64 points on the road against possibly the best defense in the country is actually commendable. Prior to that, the Bearcats had scored at least 75 points in five of their prior seven games including two games in the 80s and one in the 90s.
They also expect to have many second chance opportunities here as they have an above average offensive rebounding percentage of 32.8% while Kansas State is 306th in defensive rebounding.
Mid-60s Enough?
Kansas State has a losing overall mark of 14-15, although at 8-10 inside the conference, that stand one game ahead of Cincinnati. They are another team whose defense is better than its offense, although it is not as if they rank very high either way as they are 103rd in eFG% allowed and 152nd in eFG% on offense.
The good news for our Over play though is that we see Cincinnati scoring in the mid-70s here with their improvement on offense as of late. That would leave the Wildcats needing to score only in the mid-60s (maybe even low 60s) to clear the currently available posted total of 136.
Well, while Kansas State is only 230th nationally in scoring, they are still averaging 72.4 points per game overall, 68.9 points per game during conference play, and even 69.2 points on the road. Any of those figures would probably be good enough tonight for our Over purposes.
So, in the end, we expect the Bearcats to continue their improved offense as of late, especially with the step down after facing a suffocating Houston defense last time out. We also expect the Wildcats to do enough to make the Over the winning play in this spot.
Predicted Score: Cincinnati 77 – Kansas State 69
NCAAB Pick: Kansas State-Cincinnati Over 136 (-110) at Bookmaker
Washington Huskies vs. USC Trojans
Wednesday, March 05, 2025 – 10:30 PM ET at Galen Center
In a late-night Big Ten matchup between two struggling former Pac-12 rivals, we look for the better shooting of USC to propel them to a safe home win over Washington.
Nice Matchup
USC has now lost five straight games and seven of their last eight, dropping them to a losing 14-15 overall, 6-12 in the Big Ten, and to a 62nd ranking in Kenpom. Despite that, they are easily the better shooting team in this contest and their strengths match up just about perfectly with Washington’s weaknesses.
To wit, the Trojans rank a respectable 56th in eFG%, 67th in 3-point shooting, and 68th in 2-point shooting. Conversely, the Washington defense ranks 252nd in eFG% allowed, 210th in 3-point defense, and 261st in 2-point defense.
Also, the Huskies represent a huge class drop for USC after recent losses to much better conference teams. In fact, at #104 in Kenpom, Washington is the only Big Ten team outside of the Top 100. Moreover, the Trojans blasted the Huskies on the road in Seattle 85-61 in the first meeting this season.
Sloppy Ball-Handling
Washington has lost four straight games and five of their last six to fall to 13-16 overall and to dead last in the 18-team conference at 4-14. And we have already mentioned what a terrible matchup this is stylistically for their defense. Sadly, we also do not see their offense lending much support either.
The Huskies rank 183rd in eFG% and 212th in 2-point shooting, and while they are actually slightly above average in 3-point shooting at 34.4%, that has come over low volume as they rank 269th in 3PA/FGA ratio at only 35.5%.
But weak shooting is not the only offensive concern, as Washington is also sloppy with the basketball ranking 206th in turnover percentage and they do not generate second chances, ranking 233rd in offensive rebounding percentage.
So, it is rather easy to see how USC was able to blow out the Huskies in Washington earlier this season, and we are now betting on the Trojans to again prevail safely at home in the Galen Center.
Predicted Score: USC 82 – Washington 70
NCAAB Pick: USC -7 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
