NCAAB Best Bets for March 6: Redbirds Fly Past Bears in “Arch Madness”
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LT Profits
- March 6, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Illinois State -5 (-106) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
There are 39 games on the main board today, but as has become the norm for Thursdays, only one of those games comes from a major conference, with that coming from the Big Ten. The good news however is that conference tournament play is revving up, with six main-board tournaments in action today, as well as two extra-game tournaments.
We have homed in on three best bets for the Thursday slate based mostly on our proprietary model, comprised of two sides and one total, that we feel hold value at the current betting odds. We have two tournament selections from the Missouri Valley and West Coast Conference tournaments, with our third play being an AAC regular season contest. And our action starts early at 3:30 PM ET.
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Missouri State Bears vs. Illinois State Redbirds
Thursday, March 06, 2025 – 03:30 PM ET at Enterprise Center
The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament in St. Louis, often referred to as “Arch Madness”, kicks off Thursday afternoon, and we are backing Illinois State as moderate favorites in the 5 vs. 12-seed matchup when they take on Missouri State.
Top 20 in eFG%
Fifth seeded Illinois State finished 18-13 overall and 10-10 in the conference. They did close the season well by winning three of their last four games, including an upset of a Bradley team that finished 24-7 and second in the conference at 15-5. The Redbirds quietly had one of the best offenses in the country, but they were held back by poor defense. Thankfully, that is not as much of a concern here facing a poor Bears’ offense.
Without much fanfare, Illinois State finished the regular season 15th in the nation in eFG% at 56.5% (national average 50.9%). They were difficult to defend from all points of the floor, ranking 24th in 2-point shooting and 27th in 3-point shooting. And in Valley play only, they led the conference in eFG% and 2-point shooting while finishing third in 3-point shooting.
As mentioned, their defense prevented them from having a better record while ranking 259th in defensive efficiency, but at least the Redbirds do not allow second chances, ranking 11th nationally and second in the MVC in defensive rebounding percentage.
Last in MVC for Good Reason
Missouri State finished 9-22 overall and dead last in the conference at an awful 2-18. And there is a good reason for that record as this team has issues on both sides of the court. Furthermore, they prefer to play at a snails’ pace ranking 342nd nationally in Tempo Rating. However, we expect them to be taken out of their comfort zone by Illinois State making shots and building a lead, forcing Missouri State to quicken to try and stay close.
The Bears finished 284th nationally in offensive efficiency while being extremely sloppy by finishing 347th in turnover percentage at 20.7% (national average 17.3%). They hit a poor 49.5% of their 2-point shots (248th), although they were surprisingly above average in 3-point shooting at 36.3%. That was not over many attempts though as they were 222nd in 3PA/FGA ratio, so we do not think they will make enough 3s to cover this game.
The biggest concern however is we simply do not see how Missouri State will stop the great Illinois State shooting with a defense ranked 331st in eFG% allowed, 318th in 2-point defense, and 301st in 3-point defense.
We think the only risk to an Illinois State cover here is if Missouri State makes more 3-pointers than usual against a giving Redbirds’ 3-point defense. But that gets more than offset by Illinois State expected to do whatever they want offensively, so bet on the fifth seeded Redbirds to advance as lukewarm favorites.
Predicted Score: Illinois State 76 – Missouri State 64
NCAAB Pick: Illinois State -5 (-106) at Bookmaker
San Diego Toreros vs. Pacific Tigers
Thursday, March 06, 2025 – 05:30 PM ET at Orleans Arena
The opening game of the West Coast Conference Tournament in Las Vegas Thursday matches up the bottom two teams in the conference in what is effectively a play-in game to the main bracket. And we are betting on 10th seeded Pacific as tiny favorites over 11th seeded San Diego.
One of Worst Offenses in Nation
Last place San Diego finished 5-26 overall and an abysmal 2-16 inside the conference, snapping a 16-game losing streak on the final day of the regular season with a narrow 82-80 home win over Portland. And no, we do not expect another 82 points today from one of the worst offenses in the nation.
The Toreros were awful in every offensive component, finishing 309th in efficiency, 349th in eFG%, 355th in 3-point shooting, and 322nd in 2-point shooting. For good measure, they were also 241st in turnover percentage, which gets compounded for a lousy shooting team that cannot afford those lost possessions.
And it is not as if the defense is much better, ranking 234th in efficiency and 293rd in eFG% allowed while yielding too many second chances with a 268th ranking in defensive rebounding percentage.
Rebounding Edge is Key
Now do not get things twisted as the 10-seeds from Pacific are not exactly a powerhouse, finishing 9-23 overall and 4-14 in WCC play. And they are not very efficient offensively either ranking 267th in that category, but at 102.0 points per 100 possessions, at least they are not San Diego-level bad. Moreover, they are the considerably better 2-point shooting team here (50.5% vs. 46.5%).
And, unlike San Diego, Pacific actually has something they are good at, which is defensive rebounding. They are a Top 100 team in that category at 89th, which is saying a lot for these teams in any aspect. Thus, they do not figure to give many second chances to a team that cannot shoot straight to begin with.
That combination of limiting possessions for a poor-shooting team and Pacific expected to have better shooting success inside the arc has us backing the Tigers as miniscule favorites in Las Vegas.
Predicted Score: Pacific 79 – San Diego 72
NCAAB Pick: Pacific -1.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Tulane Green Wave vs. East Carolina Pirates
Thursday, March 06, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Minges Coliseum
We foresee a higher scoring game than the posted total implies in an AAC matchup Thursday night, so we are backing the Over when East Carolina hosts Tulane.
Good Over Team
East Carolina enters at 17-12 and tied for fifth in the conference with a 9-7 mark. They are on a nice roll having won five of their last six games, with the offense playing a key role. They scored at least 75 points in all six of those games including putting up 81 points in the lone loss…at Tulane by an 86-81 score. They topped 80 points in two other games during this six-game run and 90 points in another.
What is interesting about the Pirates is that they are not a good shooting team ranking 277th in eFG%, but they have run up scores in by being good in other offensive components. They have gotten many extra attempts by ranking 43rd nationally in offensive rebounding percentage at 34.8% (national average 29.8%) and have been better inside the AAC ranking third at 36.0%.
They are also good at ball protection with a turnover rate of 15.8% (national average 17.3%). Generating points while not shooting particularly well could be a reason why totals in ECU games have been rathe deflated this season with the Over going 17-10.
Best 2-Point Shooting in AAC
Tulane comes in at an identical 17-12 but with the better AAC record at 11-5, leaving them fourth in the conference. They are also on a nice run offensively, winning four of their last five contests while scoring at least 78 points in each win. That includes the aforementioned win over East Carolina in New Orleans where these teams both reached the 80s combining for 167 points.
The Green Wave puts up points in the more conventional fashion of good shooting. This has been especially true during conference play where they lead the AAC in 2-point shooting at 55.8% while ranking second in offensive efficiency.
Granted they are right around the national average in league play in 3-point shooting at 33.7%, but they have a chance to improve on that too here with ECU ranked 361st nationally and 13th within the conference in 3-point defense. Tulane did shoot 39.1% beyond the arc (9-for-23) in that first meeting.
This looks like another deflated total after these teams combined to score 167 points on February 19th. That has us betting on the Over in the rematch in Greenville on Thursday.
Predicted Score: East Carolina 81 – Tulane 75
NCAAB Pick: Tulane-East Carolina Over 145.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
