NCAAB Best Bets for November 11: Buffalo and Nothre Dame Light Up Scoreboard
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LT Profits
- November 11, 2024
Top NCAAB Pick: Buffalo-Notre Dame Over 147.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We have a bigger than usual NCAA Basketball Monday card for Veterans Day with 15 games on the main board and an even bigger Extra Games card. And we are here with three plays comprised of two totals and one side that we feel all hold value at the current betting odds, based mostly on our proprietary model.
Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles vs. Marshall Thundering Herd
Monday, November 11, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Cam Henderson Center
Both these teams have been potent offensively and lacking defensively against Division I competition early on. We look for that to continue with an Over when Southern Indiana visits Marshall on Monday.
Defense Is a Concern
Marshall is 1-1 so far, although nothing much can be gleaned from a season-opening 90-57 win over a subdivision school called Davis & Elkins. The good news is that the offense looked good again in the first test against a Division I school, albeit in a 90-80 loss here at home to Toledo.
The Thundering Herd have had balanced scoring so far with four starters averaging over 12 points, but do not overlook the one starter in single digits in point guard Mikal Dawson. He has done a great job directing an offense that ranks 31st nationally early on in turnover percentage at only 11.9% (national average 18.1%).
Sadly, the defense continues to be a sore spot after ranking 236th nationally in eFG% allowed last season at 51.4% when Marshall finished 13-20. Well, they are currently worse in 264th at a poor 55.9% despite the creampuff opener. That rate was a disgraceful 59.3% while letting up 90 points to Toledo.
Competitive vs. Similar Teams
Southern Indiana is 0-2, but at least they have been competitive facing two Division I squads. They lost just 80-78 to a DePaul team ranked 167th on Kenpom and 75-69 to 212th-ranked Bucknell. Thar serves as a nice gauge now facing a Marshall team ranked in between those two opponents at 189th.
And like the Herd, the Screaming Eagles have been better offensively than defensively. They are above average with a 51,5% eFG% that has been fueled by a good 37.8% shooting from beyond the 3-point arc.
While that offense has kept Southern Indiana competitive, the defense has been the main reason they have come up short in both games. The Eagles currently rank 310th in defensive efficiency at 110.2 points per 100 possessions.
This looks like a game where both offenses can exploit the opponents’ defensive weaknesses. While we still rate Marshall better and expect them to prevail, we think Southern Indiana will do enough to cash this Over ticket in this spot.
Predicted Score: Marshall 86 – Southern Indiana 74
NCAAB Pick: Over 149.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Buffalo Bulls vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Monday, November 11, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Purcell Pavilion
In a matchup where both teams have displayed better offenses than a year ago, we are betting on the Over Monday when Buffalo travels to South Bend to take on Notre Dame.
Experienced Backcourt
Notre Dane has one of the deepest backcourts in the country, bringing back five guards from last season and they also bring back their top four scorers overall. They have an NBA prospect in Markus Burton, who returns to South Bend after foregoing the NBA Draft despite the Irish going 13-20 last year in their first season under coach Micah Shrewsberry.
While Burton will often be the best player on the court, he has more experienced support after the offense finished 234th in efficiency last year. That offense is currently 72nd, although that does not mean too much with the only game being an expected 89-60 destruction of subdivision Stonehill. That game did serve a purpose however with the Irish experimenting with more three-guard sets.
They now face a Buffalo defense that is a brutal 357th in efficiency through two games.
Offense Improved, Defense Not
The Bulls come off a disastrous 4-27 season, but they are already halfway to that win total this year starting out 2-0! Yes, one of the wins was over something called Fredonia State, but the offense also performed well in an 83-82 upset win on the road at Old Dominion. The Bulls shot 56.1% against ODU, including an excellent 10-for-22 from 3-point range.
Senior transfer Tyson Dunn, who played his first three years in Canada, led the way with 24 points while incoming freshman Ben Michaels added 13. That influx of scoring talent gives optimism that the offense will be improved after ranking 338th in efficiency last year.
Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for the aforementioned defense. That unit has looked just as bad as the unit that ranked 345th in efficiency last season, even struggling in the 87-78 win against Fredonia State.
We think the improvement for both offenses is real, and Notre Dame is capable of reaching 90 points against a Buffalo team that treats defense as an afterthought. That is enough for us to back the Over on Monday.
Predicted Score: Notre Dame 90 – Buffalo 67
NCAAB Pick: Over 147.5 (-110) at BetOnline
North Dakota State Bison vs. Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners
Monday, November 11, 2024 – 09:30 PM ET at Icardo Center
This may be an ugly, under-the-radar matchup, but nonetheless, it appears to us to be a cheap line for Cal State Bakersfield at home hosting a team that plays no defense in North Dakota State.
Nice Beyond the Arc
Both these teams have had a similar start in that each is 1-1 with the win coming against a subdivision team and the loss coming in a Division I matchup. The difference is that Bakersfield faced the better D1 team on the road in California, and they were competitive as huge underdogs before falling 86-73.
The Roadrunners stuck around in that game with 9-for-16, 56.2% shooting beyond the 3-point arc. They then followed up by destroying subdivision Bethesda 122-53, and although that win does not mean much, at least they shot well beyond the arc again at 41.9%.
That leaves Bakersfield leading the nation in 3-point shooting through two games at 56.3%. No, that rate will obviously not continue, but they are facing a North Dakota State defense ranked 290th so far in 3-point defense at 40.0%. That continues a pattern from last year when NDSU finished 334th in 3-point defense and 311th in defensive efficiency.
Inefficient vs. Division I Defense
The Bison took advantage of subdivision Jamestown winning their opener 96-59. However, the offense was not nearly as good against Division 1 competition when getting upset at home 77-68 by Illinois State as 3.5-point favorites. And remember that Illinois State is ranked only 206th on Kenpom, not nearly as high as the Cal team that Bakersfield hung around with on the road.
We already mentioned NDSU’s poor 3-point defense, but that side of the ball has more issues than that while ranking 322nd in efficiency against a weak schedule. They have been far too passive while ranking 353rd out of 364 D1 teams in turnover percentage forced at a measly 7.7% (national average 18.1%), which should allow Bakersfield to run their offense basically unhindered.
Thus, we expect the Roadrunners to again be able to set up good 3-point looks like the first two games, and we do not think the NDSU offense can match that based on their only “real” game against Illinois State. Bet on Bakersfield as a tiny home favorite.
Predicted Score: CS Bakersfield 77 – North Dakota State 69
NCAAB Pick: CS Bakersfield -1.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
