NCAAB Best Bets for November 14: Panthers Will Not Shock Shockers in Wichita
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LT Profits
- November 14, 2024
Top NCAAB Pick: Wichita State -8 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
After going a winning 2-1 on Monday, we are back to a relatively small NCAA Basketball card for Thursday with only 12 games on the main board. However, we still managed to find three best bets comprised of two totals and one side that, according to the current betting odds and our proprietary model, we feel all hold value at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. Wichita State Shockers
Thursday, November 14, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Charles Koch Arena
Wichita State has looked impressive starting the season 2-0 while Northern Iowa hits the road for the first time following a terrible home loss. We are backing the Shockers to win by double digits at home in Wichita.
Great Ball Protection
The Shockers are averaging 90 points in their first two games. They opened the season in a hostile environment at Western Kentucky and came away with a 91-84 win, then followed that up with an 89-69 blowout in their home opener over Montana State. This is a team led by two seniors in the backcourt in Justin Hill and Harlond Beverly.
Hill has excelled in the point guard role, leading the team in both points (24.0 per game) and assists (5.5). But just as important has been his decision-making, as the Shockers have a low turnover rate of 13.1% under his direction (national average of 18.1%).
We think he will continue to shine here against a passive Northern Iowa defense ranked 265th in turnover percentage forced at 15.3%. Besides scoring himself, expect Hill to continue to find good looks for both Beverly (12.0 points per game) and 6’11” senior center Quincy Ballard (11.5).
Less Experienced
While the Wichita State starting lineup consists of five seniors, the Panthers are not nearly as experienced with only two in their lineup.
Granted, that younger lineup looked good over the first two games while starting 2-0, but the opening win was basically a scrimmage against a subdivision team in Dubuque. And even their Division 1 win came against a Milwaukee team ranked only 196th overall on Kenpom.
But then Northern Iowa crumbled while still at home last game, getting upset 80-60 by UC Irvine to fall to 2-1. Now the younger lineup will be facing its first road experience and may once again be taken out of its comfort zone. This is because the Panthers prefer a methodical pace, ranking 276th in the country in tempo rating. That makes it difficult to come from behind when trailing by double digits, which is what happened last game.
The Pick
We now see an instant replay here, with Wichita State building the big lead under Hill’s expert point guard play. We are betting on the Shockers to maintain that lead on the way to a handy victory.
Predicted Score: Wichita State 82 – Northern Iowa 68
NCAAB Pick: Wichita State -8 (-110) at Bookmaker
Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks vs. UNLV Runnin’ Rebels
Thursday, November 14, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Thomas & Mack Center
We foresee UNLV scoring at will on Thursday against a very giving Nebraska-Omaha defense. At the same time, Omaha could reach 70 points here, which is enough for us to bet on the Over at the Thomas & Mack Center.
Home Again vs. Lesser Defense
This is the third game of a five-game homestand for UNLV to open the season, and after taking care of business 93-79 over Alabama State in the opener, they fell short 80-74 to Memphis Saturday. Nonetheless, that was a competitive effort against the best team and defense the Rebels will face on this homestand, with Memphis ranked 37th overall on Kenpom and 45th in defensive efficiency.
UNLV now takes a huge descent in class against a 285th-ranked Omaha team that sports one of the worst defenses in the country ranked 302nd in efficiency. Thus, we expect a similar effort to the opener when the Rebels shot 56.9% from the floor and 45.0% from beyond the 3-point arc on their way to 93 points.
It also helps that even after facing the tough Memphis defense, UNLV is still a commendable 59th in offensive efficiency at 111.2 points per 100 possessions (national average 104.5). They have also protected the ball well with a turnover rate of only 14.9% (national average 18.1%) and should be able to run their offense easily against an Omaha defense ranked 301st in turnover percentage forced.
Capable of Better Offense
Omaha is 2-1, and similarly to UNLV, they too ran into a better defense in a 68-64 road loss at Minnesota last game after scoring 85 and 79 points respectively in the opening two wins. The Mavericks get a bit of a breather now with the UNLV defense ranked 145th in efficiency.
Something else UNO has in common with the Rebels is ball protection with a good turnover percentage of 15.3%. And while Omaha does not shoot the ball as well as the Rebels, they make up for it with an above-average offensive rebounding rate of 31.0%.
The Pick
So, while UNLV has the more potent offense overall and is facing a terrible defense, we do feel that Omaha can score enough points to support the Over here.
Predicted Score: UNLV 86 – Nebraska-Omaha 70
NCAAB Pick: Nebraska-Omaha/UNLV Over 146.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Pacific Tigers
Thursday, November 14, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Alex G. Spanos Center
This seems like an inflated total for two teams with well below-average offenses. Therefore, we are backing the Under when Northern Arizona visits Pacific in Stockton.
No Second Chances
Northern Arizona has one of the more deceptive 2-1 records and scoring averages you will ever see. The Lumberjacks won their first two games while scoring 100 and 115 points respectively. Yet, they still currently rank just 191st in offensive efficiency on Kenpom!
If you are wondering why, look no further than who they beat as it was two subdivision schools called Park and Nelson. The Jacks were welcomed back to the real world in their third game on Tuesday, getting blown out 90-64 in their Division I opener against Stanford while shooting 44.6% from the floor with 10 turnovers against 14 assists.
They are now facing a Pacific defense ranked a respectable 72nd in eFG% allowed at 43.9%, and NAU does not figure to get many second chances ranking 224th in offensive rebounding percentage.
Also Offensively Challenged
Since we do not expect Northern Arizona to score more than 70 points, that would require Pacific to exceed 80 points to have a chance to clear this Over. And while we get that NAU is 343rd out of 364 teams in Division I in defensive efficiency, we feel the Tigers simply lack the firepower to accomplish that.
Pacific is ranked worse than NAU in offensive efficiency at 245th, as well as 263rd in eFG%. That latter figure is mainly the result of shooting a disgusting 20.7% beyond the 3-point arc. Thus, they do not seem to be equipped to take advantage of the Lumberjacks ranking 362nd (third to last) in eFG% allowed defensively.
The Pick
So, while Pacific may score more points than usual, we think that improvement will be in the 2-point variety while still getting nothing from the 3-point range. The Tigers should still win the game, but we do not expect a sudden explosion and are betting the Under in this spot.
Predicted Score: Pacific 74 – Northern Arizona 68
NCAAB Pick: Northern Arizona/Pacific Under 150.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
