NCAAB Best Bets for November 27: Musketeers to Slash Wolverines in Florida
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LT Profits
- November 27, 2024
Top NCAAB Pick: Xavier +2 (-115) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Wednesday brings us the last NCAA Basketball card before Thanksgiving, and it is a nice slate with 41 games on the main board.
We are here with three best bets based mostly on our proprietary model comprised of two totals and one side that we feel all hold value at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Richmond Spiders vs. Ball State Cardinals
Wednesday, November 27, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at Hertz Arena
We do not discriminate when it comes to finding value, and we see an opportunity in an ugly matchup between two offenses that cannot shoot the ball straight. We are backing the Under when Ball State takes on Richmond in the Gulf Coast Classic in Estero, Florida.
Trouble Getting Out of 60s
Ball State is off to a 3-4 start, but that already-losing record is padded by two blowout wins over subdivision opponents. That leaves Ball just 1-4 against Division I foes with the only win being unimpressive, edging an Eastern Kentucky team ranked 209th on Kenpom 63-61.
In fact, they have failed to get out of the 60s in four of their five D1 games, with the lone exception coming against an Indiana State team that plays at the eighth-fastest tempo in the country. That is what happens when you rank 283rd in the country in offensive efficiency and 302nd in eFG% like the Cardinals do. Even worse, they are not getting second chances off all those missed shots, ranking 355th in offensive rebounding!
That does not figure to change against a Richmond team that is an excellent ninth in defensive rebounding percentage and is slightly above average in defensive efficiency allowing 103.8 points per 100 possessions (national average105.1).
It’s Like a Mirror
It is rather amazing how similarly the offensive profile for Richmond mirrors that of Ball State.
You see, the Spiders rank 261st in offensive efficiency, 291st in eFG% and amazingly worse in not getting second chances, ranking 360th out of 364 Division I teams in offensive rebounding percentage.
The mirror image does not end there as the Spiders are also 3-4 overall but 1-4 against D1 opponents. Just about the only difference between these squads is Richmond plays at a much slower pace ranking 240th un tempo rating, but that is only a bigger boon for the Under.
The Pick
We foresee an eyesore of a game here with many missed shots from both sides and hardly any second opportunities. Add in Richmond’s crawling pace and bet the Under on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Richmond 64 – Ball State 61
NCAAB Pick: Richmond/Ball State Under 135.5 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Rider Broncs vs. Villanova Wildcats
Wednesday, November 27, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Finneran Pavilion
Villanova has been one of the biggest disappointments in the country, but their offense has a nice chance to succeed in this contest. We also think Rider can do enough to push this game Over what looks to be a relatively low posted total, making that our bet in Philadelphia.
Drop in Class
Practically nobody would have predicted that Villanova would have a losing record of 3-4 after seven games, and yet here we are. To be fair, three losses were against good teams either on the road or on neutral courts to Saint Joseph’s, Virginia and most recently to a Maryland team ranked 33rd on Kenpom by one point 76-75 on Sunday.
The only real bad loss was here at home to 140th-ranked Columbia, but even using that worst loss as a benchmark, this game is still a large descent in class with Rider ranked 232nd.
That should give the Wildcats an opportunity to release some frustrations on a lesser foe. The Cats remain potent offensively ranking 33rd in efficiency and well above average in eFG% at 55.5% (national average 50.4%). They also generate many second chances ranking an excellent eighth nationally in offensive rebounding percentage.
Given the lesser opponent after the narrow loss to Maryland, we look for Nova to score in the 80s.
60 Points May Do
Not surprisingly, Villanova is favored by nearly 20 points in this game, which we have no interest in laying. However, the total is available at 137, meaning that if the Wildcats reach 80 points as we expect, then even a modest 60 points from Rider would be enough to cash an Over ticket.
Well, while the Broncs are only 255th in offensive efficiency, they are still averaging 64.4 points per game. Yes, we get that only puts them 340th in the country in scoring, but it would probably still be enough for an Over here.
Also, keep in mind that Villanova figures to build a large lead, opening the door for some garbage points in the late stages.
The Pick
We think Villanova will be motivated enough to run up the score here a bit to avoid falling to 3-5. With that not leaving Rider much to do, we are backing the Over in this spot.
Predicted Score: Villanova 84 – Rider 64
NCAAB Pick: Rider/Villanova Over 137 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Michigan Wolverines vs. Xavier Musketeers
Wednesday, November 27, 2024 – 08:30 PM ET at Suncoast Credit Union Arena
There are several tournaments going on in the state of Florida on Wednesday, with one of the better matchups coming in the Fort Myers Tip Off. Xavier comes in as a scant underdog, but we are backing the Musketeers to prevail over Michigan.
Still Undefeated
Xavier is a perfect 6-0 so far while looking very well-balanced on both ends of the court. After all, this is a team ranked 36th in offensive efficiency with an eFG% of 55.5% (national average 50.4%), while also ranked 56th in defensive efficiency and allowing an eFG% of only 47.4%.
In fact, we are hard-pressed to find any real weakness for the Musketeers right now. And they already have a couple of quality wins, beating Wake Forest by 15 points and then beating South Carolina here in Fort Myers on Monday. Yes, at 39th on Kenpom, Xavier is ranked slightly lower than Michigan (32nd), but that could get flipped after this game as we see X having some big edges.
Telling Common Opponent?
Michigan is 5-1, but their best win thus far has been over the 61st-ranked team on Kenpom in TCU that ranks lower than two teams Xavier has already beaten. Granted, the Wolverines profile similarly to the Musketeers in many areas. However, we see two major weaknesses that could make a major difference in what could be a close game:
- The first weakness is in ball protection, where Michigan ranks 346th in turnover percentage at 22.9% (national average 18.0%). That gives a big edge to a Xavier team ranked 34th in turnover percentage (13.9%) and that is above average in turnovers forced (19.6%).
- The second weakness is in foul shooting, where Michigan is 237th at just 68.6% while Xavier is 14th at an outstanding 80.8%.
Finally, we have yet to mention that the lone Wolverines’ loss was to Wake Forest. That happens to be a common opponent that Xavier defeated easily as previously mentioned.
The Pick
Frankly, this is a case where we disagree with Kenpom as we rate Xavier as the better team here right now. We expect the Musketeers to triumph outright, although our official bet is taking a couple of points.
Predicted Score: Xavier 81 – Michigan 73
NCAAB Pick: Xavier +2 (-115) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
