NCAAB Best Bets for November 6: Toreros To Buck Broncs in San Diego
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LT Profits
- November 6, 2024
Top NCAAB Pick: San Diego -1.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The first week of the 2024-25 NCAA Basketball season continues Wednesday with 11 games on the main board, plus 12 more on the Extra Games board.
We had a successful NCAAB season last year at the top-rated sportsbooks, where we finished the regular season a documented +15.90 units in the Bookmakers Review College Basketball Forum. We now debut this year with three plays based mostly on our proprietary model.
Columbia Lions vs. Villanova Wildcats
Wednesday, November 06, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Finneran Pavilion
In a matchup of two teams that each posted season-opening victories over weaker opponents, we expect a relatively high-scoring Over when Villanova hosts Columbia.
High-Powered Offense Expected
The Wildcats are coming off back-to-back underwhelming seasons since Kyle Neptune took over as head coach for the retired Jay Wright. They have gone an identical 10-10 inside the Big East each season and went 18-16 overall last year. However, things look more promising for Year 3 of the Neptune Regime.
Villanova is ranked 31st overall and 37th in offensive efficiency to start the season on Kenpom, and they cruised to a 75-63 win over Lafayette in their opener Monday. The Wildcats had a sluggish start leading just 30-29 at halftime before finding their bearings while scoring 45 points in the second half.
The Cats are now starting five seniors with fifth-year player Eric Dixon being the only returning starter. However, he figures to get better offensive support this season with transfer starters Jhamir Brickus, Tyler Perkins and Wooga Poplar averaging a combined 40.7 points last season. That unit gelled in the second half Monday and a faster start here could result in 80+ points.
May Not Need Much
If the Wildcats are as successful offensively as we expect, then Columbia may only need to score in the mid to upper 60s to clear this Over. And the Lions topped 80 points themselves while edging Loyola-MD 81-78 Monday.
Granted they probably will not approach that figure facing a much better defense here, but it is not as if the Lions are lacking in firepower themselves. After all, Columbia returns five of its top seven starters from a team that ranked 18th in the country in 3-point shooting last year at 37.4%
The Pick
Thus, we look for the Lions to do their share while also looking for the Wildcats to break 80 points here. Bet the Over on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Villanova 83 – Columbia 67
NCAAB Pick: Over 143.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs. Boise State Broncos
Wednesday, November 06, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at ExtraMile Arena
Boise State is a top candidate to win the Mountain West conference this season while Oakland is the probable favorite in the Horizon League. We look for both teams to do enough offensively in this matchup to cash an Over ticket.
Twin Towers
The Broncos finished 22-11 last season, losing to eventual conference champion New Mexico in the Mountain West tournament. Now, they return the preseason MWC Player of the Year Tyson Deganhart, as well as power forward O’Mar Stanley.
That big forward duo combined for nearly 30 points per game last season while keying a 33.0% offensive rebounding percentage, well above the national average of 29.0%. This led to many second chance points. They also filled their biggest weakness from last season with point guard Alvaro Cardenas transferring in from San Jose State, a huge upgrade after Boise State ranked just 275th in A/FGM ratio.
Add in another key transfer in NAIA All-American Javan Buchanan and the Broncos open this season with an efficiency rating of 111.8 points per 100 possessions on Kenpom.
Gritty Grizzlies
Oakland is in its 41st season under coach Greg Kampe, so it is rather easy to foresee continuity in style for a team that went 24-12 last year and upset Kentucky in the NCAA Tournament. This is a team that likes to spread the floor with forwards that can shoot beyond the arc.
The one downside this season is the departure of Horizon Player of the Year Trey Townsend, but that may get offset by two new scorers transferring in. Jayson Woodrich fits the Oakland scheme perfectly as a 6’7” forward who hit 37.6% from 3-point range for Cleveland State last season. The Grizzlies also added Tennessee State transfer Jaylen Jones, a guard who shot 36.5% from 3-point land.
Oakland opens with a 103.8 efficiency rating on Kenpom, but they can be better than that if the two key additions adapt to Kampe’s system quickly.
The Pick
So, in this battle of two possible conference champions, an already good Boise State offense should improve with a quality point guard while Oakland has 3-point shooting bigs to shoot over the Boise defense. Bet the Over in Idaho.
Predicted Score: Boise State 83 – Oakland 69
NCAAB Pick: Over 146 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Rider Broncs vs. San Diego Toreros
Wednesday, November 06, 2024 – 11:00 PM ET at Jenny Craig Pavilion
Rider is far from home to begin this season as they opened their year with a blowout loss at UCLA and now stay out west to visit San Diego on Wednesday. We look for the Toreros to prevail as short home favorites.
Offensively Challenged
The Broncs hail from the MAAC, and they finished 15-17 last season while ranking 242nd nationally in offensive efficiency and 285th in eFG% at only 47.7%. And that was with a veteran lineup with all five starters being seniors. The bit of good news there is that TJ Weeks had an extra year of eligibility, but he does not appear to have much support.
Rider opened with an 85-50 loss at UCLA, and while Weeks scored a commendable 15 points, the rest of the starting five scored just nine points combined! Furthermore, Weeks shot 4-for-7 beyond the 3-point arc while the rest of the team went 1-for-13 from downtown. Yes, the bench contributed 26 points, but that does not figure to be a nightly occurrence.
Kenpom has Rider ranked 257th in offensive efficiency to begin this season, and they posted an ugly eFG% of 36.3% in the opener.
Good Incoming Production
The Toreros are well-coached with Steve Lavin entering his third year at the helm, and they posted their first winning season since 2018-19 last year at 18-15. The bad news is they lost their top four leading scorers with senior center Steven Jamerson being the only returning starter. And Jamerson’s strong suit is defense, as he averaged only 8.1 points last season.
However, San Diego does have some nice incoming production. To wit, Kody Clouet averaged 17.6 points and shot 43% from beyond the arc in Division II last season, freshman Kean Webb averaged 18 points and 11 rebounds per game at Golden State Prep and Kjay Bradley was the MVP of his junior college conference, with a season-high 41-point game to his credit.
The Pick
Now granted, San Diego figures to get better as the season goes on while working in all their new parts. However, they are opening their season against an offensively challenged club in Rider, so we expect the fresh talent to do enough to get the win and cover at home.
Predicted Score: San Diego 79 – Rider 69
NCAAB Pick: San Diego -1.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
