Top NCAAB Pick: USC/Idaho State Over 139 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The first week of the 2024-25 NCAAB season continues Thursday with 14 games on the main board plus nine more on the Extra Games board.
We had a successful NCAAB season last year where we finished the regular season with a documented +15.90 units in the Bookmakers Review College Basketball Forum. We now return to the top-rated sportsbooks with three plays for Thursday based mostly on our proprietary model.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more betting advice on the Jacksonville vs. Florida and Montana State vs. Wisconsin games.
North Carolina A&T Aggies vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Thursday, November 07, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at LJVM Coliseum
We see a plethora of scoring by Wake Forest Thursday with their high-powered offense facing a poor defense. We also see North Carolina A&T doing enough on their side to back the Over in Winston-Salem.
Nice Experience
Wake Forest just missed making the NCAA Tournament field last season finishing 21-14 overall and fourth in the ACC. That team finished 25th in the country in offensive efficiency at 117.7 points per 100 possessions and now returns five players while also adding five transfers and one incoming freshman. Furthermore, the Demon Deacons were much more proficient at home last season.
Granted the offense was erratic in a 64-49 opening win over Coppin State, but Wake did have a 42-22 lead at halftime allowing for many bench minutes while cruising home in the second half. This is a team with better depth than last season thanks to the quality transfers, and they have a potential All-ACC point guard in Hunter Sallis that can fill up a stat sheet.
We expect a better all-around offensive performance than the opener from the Deacons here facing a dreadful A&T defense rated 307th in defensive efficiency on Kenpom.
Better Than Last Season
The Aggies come off a dismal campaign last year when they finished 7-25 while finishing 349th out of 362 Division I teams in defensive efficiency. They were not much better offensively either, ranking 333rd. However, this team now has a deep backcourt thanks to adding guards Jahnathan Lamothe from Maryland and Ryan Forrest from Northwestern State to their returning starting guards from last season.
That guard play led to offensive improvement in what amounted to a scrimmage in the season opener, a 107-55 blowout of sub-division Cheyney. Obviously, that in no way prepares North Carolina A&T for Wake Forest. Still, it was encouraging that Lamothe had an immediate impact with 27 points while acting as the shooting guard, and the incumbent point guard had a double-double with 11 points and 10 assists.
The Pick
We think that the now-strong A&T backcourt will result in offensive improvement this season. On the other hand, none of their new faces are known for defense, so Wake should have a field day offensively. Bet the Over on Thursday.
Predicted Score: Wake Forest 87 – North Carolina A&T 69
NCAAB Pick: Wake Forest/North Carolina Over 150 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs. Air Force Falcons
Thursday, November 07, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Clune Arena
Air Force opened as a small favorite for this home game against Jacksonville State, but the line has now flipped with the Gamecocks currently a consensus 1-point road favorite. We think that flip is justified and are backing Jacksonville State in this tiny chalk role.
Terrible Opener
Air Force comes off a 9-22 season where they finished 327th in the country in defensive efficiency, and they opened this season ranked 264th overall on Kenpom. Well, the Falcons showed why they are a candidate to finish last in the Mountain West this season in their opener, getting upset here at home 73-57 by North Florida out of the ASUN Conference!
Much of the Air Force’s defensive deficiencies last year stemmed from their inability to defend the perimeter, finishing 328th in 3-point defense. Sadly, it was more of the same Monday against a school from a small “extra games” conference with North Florida shooting a blazing 15-for-29, 51.7% beyond the arc.
As for the offense, it was plagued by the same problems as last season with an 18.8% offensive rebounding percentage and 22.3% turnover percentage in the opener. Yes, it was only one game, but that continued a pattern that saw the Falcons finish 322nd and 295th in those two categories respectively last season.
Took Care of Business
Jacksonville State had a glorified scrimmage to open the season against sun-division LaGrange, and they handled their business accordingly in a 112-48 walkover. With that said, the Gamecocks match up perfectly with Air Force defensively, as they are good at forcing turnovers and limiting offensive rebounds, which as mentioned are serious weak spots for the Falcons.
The Cocks are coming off a 14-18 season, but the defense was above average in efficiency thanks to ranking 38th nationally in defensive rebounding and forcing turnovers on 18.2% of possessions (national average 17.2%).
As for the offense, while it is hard to gauge stats against sub-division teams, JSU did shoot 58.9% from the field in the opener. While the Gamecocks probably won’t replicate this shooting percentage, they should still have some success against the lacking Air Force defense while at the same time having stylistic defensive advantages.
The Pick
That is enough for us to give the point with Jacksonville State in Colorado Springs.
Predicted Score: Jacksonville State 73 – Air Force 67
NCAAB Pick: Jacksonville State -1 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Idaho State Bengals vs. USC Trojans
Thursday, November 07, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Galen Center
In a battle of two teams with overhauled rosters, USC was surprisingly cohesive opening day while Idaho State threw a scare into Arizona State. We are looking for an offensive explosion from the Trojans here, and while we are not laying this big spread, we think their offensive outburst will key an Over.
Balanced Attack
It is a new era at USC with new head coach Eric Musselman and just one returning player from last year. And that player is back-up Harrison Hornery, who played just four minutes in an opening 77-51 whooping of Chattanooga. Yet, there was a lot to like about that win and the Trojans are still ranked a respectable 44th in the country overall on Kenpom.
You would not know that everyone was a first-year player for USC (excluding Hornery’s four minutes) by how well the team meshed Monday. The Trojans had balanced scoring led by 14 points for Boise State transfer Chibuzo Agbo and 13 from Yale transfer Matt Knowling. They also had five other players score at least eight points while shooting 32-of-64, 50.0% from the field with 21 assists against nine turnovers.
After that effort, we could easily see USC getting into the 80s here or even approaching 90 against an Idaho State defense ranked 230th in efficiency on Kenpom.
Good Defense of Poor Shooting?
That defensive ranking for the Bengals belies the 55-48 score in their opening loss at Arizona State. Keep in mind though that ASU finished 212th in offensive efficiency last season and had the same issues in the opener, finishing with an eFG% of 42.7%. That probably made the Idaho State defense seem better than it is, and we do not expect that same fortune against a new-look USC offense currently ranked 53rd in efficiency.
At the same time, we also feel the 48 points scored was an aberration. Not that the Bengals have a great offense, but we still think there is only one direction to go offensively after shooting a measly 17-for-67, 25.4% from the field. There will also probably be an opportunity for late garbage points here with USC expected to build a big lead.
The Pick
If the Trojans get into the 80s here as were expect, then scoring around 60 points would be all Idaho State needs to push this game Over, making that our official play.
Predicted Score: USC 87 – Idaho State 61
NCAAB Pick: USC/Idaho State Over 139 (-108) at Heritage Sports
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