NCAAB Best Bets for January 15: Commodores to Sink Gamecocks in Nashville
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LT Profits
- January 15, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Vanderbilt -8 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We are a profitable 17-13, 56,7% in our last 30 NCAA Basketball plays, and we are back for another nice Wednesday card that brings us 40 games on the main board.
We have isolated three best bets based mostly on our proprietary model, consisting of two sides and one total that we feel all hold value at the current betting odds. All three of our selections come from major conferences, with two from the SEC and one from the Big East.
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
Wednesday, January 15, 2025 – 06:00 PM ET at Memorial Gymnasium
Both Vanderbilt and South Carolina enter this SEC clash Wednesday on small losing streaks, but we think the Commodores present more upside at home in Nashville and we expect them to prevail handily.
5 Point Guards?
Vanderbilt was one of the biggest surprises in the country starting the season 13-1, although they have since lost two straight games to enter at 13-3. First, they lost to a very good Mississippi State team ranked 19th in Kenpom here at home and then on the road at 40th ranked Missouri. They now take an appreciated class drop hosting the 72nd ranked Gamecocks.
The Commodores have one of the most unique lineups in the country, not only because they play small with their tallest starter being 6’7” but also because all five starters can play point guard! Having five ball handlers on the floor has led to nice ball protection ranking 16th in the country in turnover percentage, and it has also led to nice looks with a good 22nd ranking in 2-point shooting at 57.9% despite usually being out-sized.
The quickness of the small lineup has also had a turnover impact on the defensive end with the Commodores an amazing sixth in the country in steal percentage at 14.5% (national average 9.9%).
Do Not Force Turnovers
South Carolina enters on a 3-game losing streak that leaves them at 10-6 for the season. To be fair though, the three losses came to Auburn (#1 in Kenpom), #8 Alabama and the same #19 Mississippi State team Vanderbilt recently lost to. That makes MSU an interesting common opponent as the Gamecocks were blown out by them by 35 points while Vandy was more competitive losing by 12.
South Carolina is not a good shooting team offensively ranking 182nd in eFG%, 211th in 3-point shooting and 168th in 2-point shooting. But their biggest flaw pertinent to this game comes on the defensive end, where they are just 311th in turnover percentage forced. That should give all the Commodores’ fine ball handlers free rein to set up whatever play they choose.
The combination of Vanderbilt running their offense unabated and South Carolina not shooting the ball well has us betting on the Dores as home favorites on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Vanderbilt 79 – South Carolina 66
NCAAB Pick: Vanderbilt -8 (-110) at Bookmaker
Seton Hall Pirates vs. Butler Bulldogs
Wednesday, January 15, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Hinkle Fieldhouse
This may not be the most marquee of Big East matchups, but therein lies our point as we do not believe Butler is worthy of this much favoritism. We are taking the points with Seton Hall on the road at Hinkle Fieldhouse.
Not Many Second Chances
Butler has now lost nine straight games to fall to 7-10 and leave them at the bottom of the Big East standings at 0-6 in conference play; They have not had the same home court advantage as years past, going 5-5 here including bad home losses to Austin Peay (304th in Kenpom) and North Dakota State (106th) out of conference. That does not exactly inspire confidence in around a seven-point favorite.
The Bulldogs like to play slow, ranking 281st in average possession length at 18.6 seconds, they are an average shooting team with an eFG% of 51.9% and they do not get many second chances ranking 280th in offensive rebounding percentage. As you might expect that unenviable combination leaves them averaging just 71.6 points per game to rank 266th in the land.
Create Turnovers
Now, Seton Hall is obviously not a great team for this line to be what it is, but we do not think they are that much worse for the line to be this big. Sure, they are 6-10, but they do have some positive components on both ends of the court and at least they have one conference win at 1-4. They even beat two Kenpom Top 100 teams in non-conference play in VCU and FAU.
The Pirates are a good rebounding team on both ends, ranking 53rd in offensive rebounding percentage and 57th defensively, so they should have more second-chance points in this game. They are also a competent 3-point shooting team offensively at a slightly above average 34,8%.
But the best aspect of the Seton Hall team is forcing turnovers on defense, where they rank 33rd nationally at 21.4% (national average 17.7%).
Given all that, at the very least, Seton Hall should be able to do enough to take this game down to the wire even if they do not pull the upset. Take the points with the Pirates on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Butler 67 – Seton Hall 66
NCAAB Pick: Seton Hall +7 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Wednesday, January 15, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at Lloyd Noble Center
We are expecting an SEC barnburner in Norman on Wednesday with two former Big 12 rivals both having offensive success. This has us backing the Over when Texas visits Oklahoma.
Success Beyond the Arc
Oklahoma went 13-0 during non-conference play including nice wins over Michigan, Arizona and Louisville, all of whom reside in the Kenpom Top 30. However, they are a disappointing 0-3 to begin SEC play, so we expect them to come out firing at home tonight in an attempt to end that streak.
After all, the Sooners remain an excellent shooting team that ranks 24th in offensive efficiency and 28th in eFG%, leaving them averaging 81.2 points per game, an average that rises to 84.6 points here at home. They are well balanced ranking 51st in 3-point shooting and 37th in 2-point shooting, and that success even extends to the foul line where they rank sixth at 80.9%.
We expect Oklahoma to do a lot of damage from beyond the arc tonight facing a Texas team ranked 121st in 3-point defense.
Balanced Offense
The Longhorns come in at 11-5, but they are the higher ranked overall team on Kenpom here at 38th compared to 45th for the Sooners. That is despite Texas also being 0-3 in the SEC, as the losses came to Auburn (#1 in Kenpom), #5 Tennessee and #19 Texas A&M. We expect the offense to return to normal tonight after facing three top 15 defenses in terms of efficiency, with Oklahoma 92nd in that department.
And that “normal” for the Longhorns is ranking 21st in offensive efficiency, ranking a great 15th in 3-point shooting and a good 53rd in 2-point shooting. And we expect more balance tonight given Oklahoma’s poor 277th ranking in 2-point defense. Furthermore, Texas has some of the best ball control in the country, ranking third in turnover percentage.
Thus, what we have here is two good and relatively balanced offenses taking on one defense that struggles inside (Oklahoma) and one defense that is vulnerable beyond the arc (Texas). So, we are betting the Over with both offenses having paths to success.
Predicted Score: Oklahoma 81 – Texas 79
NCAAB Pick: Over 149.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
