NCAAB Best Bets for January 22: Ole Miss to Rebel Against Aggies
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LT Profits
- January 22, 2025
NCAAB Pick: Ole Miss -3.5 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We remain a solid 20-15-1, 57.1% in our last 36 NCAA Basketball plays, and we are back again Wednesday for a card which again brings us 35 games on the main board.
We have keyed on three more best bets based mostly on our proprietary model, all three of which are sides that we feel hold value at the current betting odds. We have two major conference bets from the Big Ten and SEC, as well as a mid-major selection from the Mountain West.
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Welsh-Ryan Arena
In a Big Ten matchup of two teams that have both displayed Jeckel & Hyde characteristics when playing at home vs. away, we are backing Northwestern at home hosting Indiana.
9-1 at Home
These two teams grade out relatively close when looking at overall numbers, with the exception being Northwestern having a nice edge in defensive efficiency, but this is a case with their home/away variances are so drastic that they cannot be ignored.
The Wildcats come in at a modest 11-7, but they have been a different beast here at Welsh-Ryan Arena, where they are 9-1 with an average winning margin of +12.4 points! Their only home loss came to an excellent Michigan State team ranked 14th in Kenpom, and they face no such rival here with Indiana ranked 59th.
We mentioned that Northwestern grades out well in defensive efficiency, where they rank 25th overall allowing 96.2 points per 100 possessions and 73.4 points per game. Well, that defense had been even more stifling here in this arena, allowing nearly 10 points less per game at a scant 63.9. Furthermore, they have two wins here vs. the Kenpom Top 25, beating #9 Illinois and #24 Maryland.
Just Won First Road Game
Indiana enters at 14-5, but they had not won a true road game all season until finally prevailing by a point 77-76 in overtime in their last game Friday visiting Ohio State. We have mentioned several times this season though that we think the Buckeyes are overrated, and that was already their fourth home loss of the season.
We think it is a lot to ask for the Hoosiers to suddenly win two straight road games after not winning one all year previously, especially since we think this is a tougher road assignment given how Northwestern has performed in Evanston.
Also, Indiana is a poor 3-point shooting team that ranks 280th nationally at a mere 31.4%. We do not see that improving given how suffocating the Wildcats’ defense has been at home.
This is a case where home-court advantage means more than an average matchup since both teams have such significant splits, so we are betting on Northwestern as moderate home favorites.
Predicted Score: Northwestern 76 – Indiana 65
NCAAB Pick: Northwestern -5.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Boise State Broncos vs. Colorado State Rams
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Moby Arena
We are venturing into the Mountain West Conference Wednesday, where we are betting on Colorado State to win safely at home in Fort Collins as scant favorites hosting Boise State.
Unstoppable Inside?
Colorado State may be only 11-7 overall, but they are in the hunt for the Mountain West title currently sitting third in conference at 5-2. And their offense has excelled in league play, during which they lead the conference in eFG% thanks to leading in 2-point shooting and free throw shooting.
The Rams have been a load to handle inside all season, ranking 15th in the country in 2-point shooting at 57.9%. However, they have taken things to stratospheric levels during Mountain West play hitting 2s at a 61.4% rate! We do not see Boise State slowing the Rams up much considering they rank 100th nationally in 2-point defense.
Granted, Colorado does not shoot 3-pointers well ranking 233rd, but they have not needed to while getting constant great looks inside, supported by ranking 12th in A/FGM ratio at 62.9%. And they are excellent at salting away wins at the foul line, ranking 19th nationally at 78.4%, a rate that climbs to an outstanding 84.0% in league play.
Not Much Defense
Boise State comes in with the better record here at 13-6, although they are one-half game behind Colorado State in the MWC standings at 5-3. However, their only two road wins this season have come vs. a couple of conference bottom-feeders in Wyoming (180th in Kenpom) and San Jose State (181st), and they are now visiting a Rams team ranked 100 spots higher at 80th.
And this is a brutal matchup for a Broncos defense ranked 87th in efficiency and 134th in eFG% allowed. It is also a Boise defense that applies no pressure ranking 265th in turnover percentage forced, and it goes without saying that giving Colorado State free rein to find the best shots for a dominant inside offense is not ideal.
Moreover, Boise State is not a team that can hang around with 3-pointers either, ranking even worse than Colorado State in that department at 241st nationally.
With neither team shooting 3s well, we think this game will come down to a dominant Colorado State inside offense taking advantage of a passive Boise State defense. We are backing the Rams at home.
Predicted Score: Colorado State 73 – Boise State 66
NCAAB Pick: Colorado State -1 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Mississippi Rebels
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss
We are not sold on Texas A&M being ranked 18th in Kenpom right now, and we are backing Mississippi to prevail more comfortably than this line implies in SEC play on Wednesday.
Great Experience
Mississippi ranks one spot better than the Aggies at 17th in Kenpom, but we personally think the difference between these squads is bigger than that. The Rebels come in at 15-3 overall and 4-1 in an SEC that grades out as the best conference in the country. And that lone conference loss can be classified as a “good” one on Saturday, coming in overtime 84-81 at in-state rival Mississippi State, a team ranked 22nd in its own right.
Ole Miss is well-balanced on both ends of the court, ranking 29th in offensive efficiency and 12th in defensive efficiency. They are also a very experienced team that ranks third in the country in Division I experience with an average of 3.41 years while starting five seniors.
As you might expect with all those games played, this is not a team that beats itself ranking second in turnover percentage at only 13.1% (national average 17.7%).
Poor Shooting
While we feel that Mississippi merits its high Kenpom ranking, we are not sure the same can be said about Texas A&M. Yes, they are 14-4 and get a natural boost from playing in the SEC, but frankly we do not think they can maintain that winning percentage given how poorly they are shooting the basketball.
The Aggies rank 265th in the country in eFG% while ranking poorly in all three of its components, sitting at 306th in 3-point shooting, 211th in 2-point shooting and even 298th in free throw shooting. The only reason they are somehow 38th in offensive efficiency is because they lead the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, but still, one would think the poor shooting has to catch up with A&M eventually.
Now, as you might expect based on their record, they are much better defensively ranking 11th in efficiency and 36th in eFG% allowed. However, this is a game where they do not hold significant edges there either with Ole Miss ranking 12th and 45th respectively.
The bottom line here is that we do not trust the Texas A&M offense to do enough against a more balanced and much more experienced team like Mississippi. We are betting on the Rebels as home favorites.
Predicted Score: Mississippi 76 – Texas A&M 67
NCAAB Pick: Mississippi -3.5 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
