NCAAB Best Bets for January 8: Fighting Irish Tame Wolfpack in Raleigh
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LT Profits
- January 8, 2025
We are now 13-8, 61.9% in our last 18 NCAA Basketball plays, and we are back for a nice-sized Wednesday card that brings us 41 games on the main board. And we have reached the time of year where mostly all the games are conference affairs.
We have identified three best bets based mostly on our proprietary model, all three of which are sides that we feel all hold value at the current betting odds. We have two major conference battles from the Big East and ACC, as well as a mid-major matchup in the Missouri Valley Conference.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice.
UConn Huskies vs. Villanova Wildcats
Wednesday, January 08, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Finneran Pavilion
The defending two-time national champions from Connecticut are looking to remain undefeated in Big East play when they face a road test at Villanova on Wednesday. We are backing the Huskies to pass that test with a safe covering win.
Unfamiliar Territory
Connecticut is accustomed to being near the top of the polls, but at 12-3, they come in ranked a lower than usual ninth in the AP Poll and a more surprising 23rd in Kenpom. However, their three losses came consecutively in the Maui Invitational around Thanksgiving, and they have since resembled their usual selves winning eight straight games.
And it is not as if the Huskies have been feasting on cupcakes either, as the winning streak includes non-conference wins over Gonzaga, Baylor and Texas as well as a 4-0 start in the Big East.
UConn is now back up to second in the country in offensive efficiency, ranking ninth in 2-point shooting at 59.7% and safely above average in 3-point shooting at 37.4%. They have received excellent point guard play, resulting in ranking second in A/FGM ratio at 67.2%, and good ball protection ranking 26th in turnover percentage. This has resulted in 83.9 points per game overall and 85.0 PPG in conference play.
Have Not Stepped Up
Villanova enters at 10-5, although they are 7-1 in the last eight games and 3-1 in the Big East. However, unlike Connecticut, the Wildcats faced an easy non-conference schedule ranked 311th per Kenpom, which helps explain their 41st overall ranking despite the 10 wins.
Furthermore, Nova has been unable to step up against better competition, with two of their losses coming to Maryland (24th in Kenpom) and Creighton (48th). This is not to mention the other three losses coming to teams ranked 96th or worse, including an awful loss here at home to Columbia where they allowed 90 points!
Yes, Villanova is not too far behind UConn in offensive efficiency ranking fifth overall, but the weak schedule brings that ranking into question. At the same time, that schedule magnifies their flaws, the biggest of which is the defense ranking 275th in turnover percentage forced.
That should allow Connecticut to run its offense relatively unhindered. Add in Villanova not beating anyone nearly this good yet and bet the Huskies as a Pick’em on the road.
Predicted Score: Connecticut 88 – Villanova 79
NCAAB Pick: Connecticut PK (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Drake Bulldogs vs. Bradley Braves
Wednesday, January 08, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Carver Arena
Drake has lost two straight games since a 12-0 start, but we feel they overachieved early on and are now returning to reality. We are betting on Bradley to hand the Bulldogs their third straight loss on Wednesday.
Lead Country in 3-Point Shooting
Bradley now has the better record of these two teams at 13-2, and they top the Missouri Valley Conference as the only team still unbeaten in conference play at 4-0. Moreover, they recently beat a San Francisco team ranked 62nd in Kenpom out of conference, which is the best win for either of these squads thus far.
It is no secret why Bradley has had such a successful start as the Braves lead the nation in 3-point shooting at a hefty 43.1%. And they have done that with decent volume, averaging 11 made 3s per game. Furthermore, it is not as if defenses can focus on any one player as Bradley has four players averaging double-digits in points, with all four hitting a minimum of 40.0% beyond the 3-point arc!
Hello Earth
Drake’s 12-0 start was mainly due to a laughable schedule, as evidenced by them ranking only 67th in Kenpom when they were 12-0, a ranking that is currently 86th at 12-2. And not only that, but the two defeats have come to an Illinois Chicago team ranked 151st on the road and to 114th-ranked Murray State at home.
Regression was inevitable for the Bulldogs, and we do not see them keeping pace here offensively while ranking 116th in offensive efficiency and 216th in 3-point shooting. They are also very sloppy with the basketball ranking a dismal 310th in turnover percentage.
Now, Drake has been good in defensive efficiency at 100.5 points per 100 possessions (national average 106.0), but that has been fueled by defensive rebounding and forcing turnovers. However, they are only 229th in eFG% allowed, which is obviously not ideal against Bradley’s sharpshooters.
We look for Bradley to continue making 3-point shots in front of a supportive home crowd, while Drake continues to descend from an unrealistic start. Give the short points with the Braves at the Carver Center.
Predicted Score: Bradley 72 – Drake 62
NCAAB Pick: Bradley -2.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. NC State Wolfpack
Wednesday, January 08, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Lenovo Center
Notre Dame welcomed one of the best players in the ACC back to the court in their last game, so we are looking for a return to their early-season form going forward. We are backing the Fighting Irish to pull the tiny upset visiting NC State in Raleigh.
Burton’s Back
Notre Dame is just 7-7 overall and ranked 91st in Kenpom. Remember though that they started 4-0 with a vastly improved offense when they lost All-ACC candidate Markus Burton to injury during the fourth win. They then proceeded to go 3-6 without their star point guard running the offense as flawlessly as he had been.
Well, Burton made his long-awaited return on Saturday, and he nearly engineered an upset as the Irish fell just short in a 74-73 defeat to North Carolina. Burton came off the bench for his return and promptly scored 23 points in 23 minutes. He should see an increase in his minutes tonight and it would not be surprising if he returns to the starting lineup.
Even without Burton for more than half their games, Notre Dame is still ranked a commendable 55th in offensive efficiency. Look for that ranking to rise as the season goes on with Burton returning early enough to still garner All-ACC honors
Modest Shooting vs. Weak Schedule
NC State comes in at 8-6, and they are ranked one spot lower than Notre Dame in Kenpom at 92nd without the excuse of missing an All-Star player. Furthermore, they have not beaten much, with only one win over a Kenpom Top 100 team, and that was in overtime against 68th-ranked Florida State in their ACC opener. They have since lost two straight conference affairs to fall to 1-2 in ACC play.
Despite facing a soft non-conference schedule ranked 316th, the Wolfpack have not shot the ball particularly well this season ranking 158th in eFG%. Comparatively, Notre Dame is 74th in that category with Burton missing 9+ games. NC State is 232nd in 3-point shooting at only 32.2% and their problems even extend to the foul line, where they are 252nd at 69.5%.
Notre Dame has decently held its own offensively without Burton and may now see a return to their excellent early season level with his return. We think NC State lacks the firepower to keep pace with that, so we are betting on the Irish to win outright as small dogs.
Predicted Score: Notre Dame 75 – NC State 68
NCAAB Pick: Notre Dame +2 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
