Top NCAAB Pick: Nevada -15 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated online sportsbooks have released their NCAAB odds for today’s college basketball slate. Three games interest me: Dayton vs. Loyola Chicago, Fresno State vs. Nevada and Air Force vs. Utah State. For your best bets, I will recommend investing in Loyola Chicago, Nevada and Air Force.
Dayton Flyers vs. Loyola Chicago Ramblers
Friday, March 01, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Joseph J. Gentile Arena
Dayton on the Road
Dayton is an unreliable road favorite. On the road, the Flyers have lost their last two games and three of their last four. These three road losses came to Richmond, VCU and George Mason teams that they were favored against.
Defensive Trend
Because Dayton has won road games, there is still logical space to like them tonight.
In order to consider whether they might, as an exception, win tonight, we need to examine what their road wins have in common and to consider whether their matchup tonight is accordingly favorable to them.
Their last road wins came against Saint Joseph’s and La Salle. What those two teams have in common is that they play defense poorly. Both rank outside the top ten in the Atlantic 10 in defensive efficiency.
Conversely, Richmond and VCU are strong on defense. Richmond and VCU rank Top 50 nationally and Top 4 in their conference in defensive efficiency.
I like Loyola Chicago tonight because it is strong defensively – the Ramblers rank 38th nationally and second in the A-10 in defensive efficiency. Whereas the Flyers will probably beat a team with a subpar defense on the road, they will certainly lose away from home to a team that is strong defensively.
Talented but Soft
Dayton wants to play a free-flowing game featuring fluid ball movement and dribble penetration.
When the Flyers pounced on Rhode Island, their ball-handlers easily made their way inside the paint where they could carve up Rhode Island’s defense. This is the high-scoring version of Dayton that people think of when they rush to bet on the Flyers as small favorites tonight.
However, Richmond and VCU, more profoundly than simply being good defensively, are tough, physical teams. Especially the VCU game, when Dayton failed to reach 50 points, demonstrates the positive impact that applying pressure, scrapping, and preventing dribble penetration will have for an underdog looking to upset Dayton.
Loyola Chicago’s Tough Defense
The Ramblers will hound ball-handlers behind the arc. Inside the arc, their defenders are likewise stout and physical.
Their on-ball pressure has various positive effects. For example, it prevents the opposing offense from developing a rhythm. Moreover, it induces opposing ball-handlers to make difficult passes and to commit turnovers at a high rate.
On-ball pressure is difficult for a defense to accomplish, but the Ramblers have defenders whose footwork and organization keep opposing offenses from being able to breathe easily. Loyola Chicago is just the team, especially in Chicago, to inhibit Dayton from becoming comfortable tonight.
Ramblers’ Offense
The Ramblers like a pretty fast tempo, which is something that will bother characteristically slow-tempo Dayton. Loyola Chicago will use their defense to establish their preferred tempo, as they will force Dayton into missing shots, rebound those missed shots and run.
As a team, they are good at finding teammates in transition. In the half-court, they will try to penetrate inside, often finishing tonight via a post-up against a Dayton defense that lacks size and shot-blocking ability.
NCAAB Pick: Loyola Chicago +1 (-110) at BetOnline
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Nevada Wolf Pack
Friday, March 01, 2024 – 10:30 PM ET at Lawlor Events Center
No Let-Down
The best argument for betting on Fresno State is a bad one.
This argument is that Nevada will have a let-down tonight following its dramatic win over Colorado State on Tuesday. While some teams would be prone to suffering a let-down tonight, not all teams are vulnerable in this way.
The argument for Nevada suffering a let-down tonight would be a good one if there were a historical precedent for it specific to the Wolf Pack under their current leadership. But, in fact, we see the opposite. Led by their current head coach, the Wolf Pack last year pulled off a buzzer-beater victory over New Mexico. They followed that game by covering the spread in their win over Fresno State.
This year, Nevada has done a good job about staying focused after achieving big wins. The Wolf Pack followed a big win at Utah State by defeating San Diego State.
While they lost their following game, they were very close to covering the spread, and it took an unusually strong three-point shooting from New Mexico to prevent them from doing so.
Their one absolute failure came after they beat Colorado State on January 24. They lost their next game by 34 points. Given this 34-point loss, they will stay extra focused tonight in order to avoid repeating January’s post-Colorado State catastrophe.
High-Scoring Nevada
In order for us to count on Nevada covering the large spread, we’ll need to feel confident that it can score a lot of points.
Indeed, Nevada has one of its conference’s top offenses. The Wolf Pack have scored 90 or more points in four of their last eleven games, which is a feat that they can accomplish against a Fresno State defense that, despite its slow pace, has allowed 90 or more points on multiple occasions this year.
Nevada’s Offense
The Wolf Pack score a lot of points by being a great passing team. They pass the ball well because Nevada players move well off the ball.
It is hard to keep up, especially for the duration of the shot clock, with Nevada players running from one side to the other, often using screens to free themselves up. Those moving Nevada players benefit especially from the sharp passing of point guard Kenan Blackshear, who ranks 56th nationally in assist rate.
Nevada ball-handlers will also act in order to create strong passing opportunities.
Blackshear will use his size to back down his opponent, and his teammates will drive inside, forcing defenders to commit extra attention inside, where Nevada will pass the ball to an open teammate. Largely because of their penchant for drive-and-kick actions, the Wolf Pack love catch-and-shoot three-pointers – they rank among the nation’s leaders in assisted three-pointers.
Ranking number one in the Mountain West in three-point percentage, Nevada has the shooters to thrive behind the arc. Look out especially for Jarod Lucas, the Mountain West’s fourth-most efficient three-point shooter at 43.9 percent.
Fresno State Can’t Keep Up
When Fresno State lost 85-56 to BYU, it showed severe vulnerability to offensive maneuvers that Nevada likes to rely on. BYU’s off-ball movement and use of screens created easy opportunities for three-pointers.
Fresno State has trouble contesting shots, as its defenders are slow to recover behind the arc. The Bulldogs are one of the worst teams in the nation at limiting opposing three-point efficiency, and we will see Nevada mimic BYU in exploiting Fresno State’s vulnerability.
On offense, Fresno State simply lacks the shot-makers to keep up with Nevada, which has one of the nation’s 40 most efficient defenses. Held back by inefficient shooting, Fresno State typically scores around 60 points, although it failed to reach 60 in its home loss to Nevada on January 6.
Nevada, on the other hand, is going to fly past 80 points.
NCAAB Pick: Nevada -15 (-110) at BetOnline
Air Force Falcons vs. Utah State Aggies
Friday, March 01, 2024 – 11:00 PM ET at Dee Glen Smith Spectrum
Air Force’s Bounce-Back Spot
Joe Scott’s Air Force group excels at bouncing back from blowout losses.
Last year, the Falcons lost by 30 at San Jose State in their first meeting. In their rematch, they stayed within two points. This year, Air Force lost by 19 at home to New Mexico before upsetting the Lobos on February 24.
While Utah State might count out Air Force tonight – because the Aggies won their first meeting by 28 points – the uniquely disciplined Falcons will maintain self-confidence and will return with a strong game plan.
The First Meeting
The thing is, the Falcons won’t even need any kind of ingenious game-planning in order to score way more points in this game than they did in the first meeting.
Air Force scored so little because it failed to take advantage of its propitious shooting opportunities.
The Falcons did show that they could create open three-point shots. They also showed how dangerous they are offensively as a team that loves to shoot the three but that, as a big part of its Princeton offense, will also employ chin actions and other actions to rely on cutters and other moves to create easy layups.
Air Force’s Offensive Outlook
Their win at New Mexico, besides providing proof of their bounce-back proclivity, shows that they can beat a team that, like the Aggies, prides itself on perimeter defense, on limiting opposing opportunities from behind the arc.
Utah State has shown susceptibility to allowing favorable three-point opportunities, which opponents more often accumulate against them by taking advantage of Utah State’s occasional post-double and its lapses in ball-screen defense.
A particularly high number of those favorable three-point opportunities have been taken by big men, with Boise State’s Tyson Degenhart being one example. Whereas Degenhart is having an off year in terms of efficiency, Air Force has two power forwards who shoot over 40 percent from deep and a center who shoots 37 percent from behind the arc.
Their incessant motion will help them find ways to get open even when their Utah State counterparts are not overly committed to positioning themselves near the basket.
Air Force’s Defense
The Falcons are likelier to commit a shot clock violation on offense than to force a bad shot that leads to easy scoring opportunities for their opponent. So, Utah State will really have to rely on its half-court offense to score enough points to cover the spread.
While Air Force’s defense is undeniably awful according to the metrics, the metrics are already accounted for by the odds.
Other aspects of the Falcons’ defense will make it be the case that Utah State will have to rely on an implausible degree of offensive efficiency tonight because it won’t get as many opportunities as it wants to. The Falcons employ double teams, especially, in order to create turnovers. While they are relatively good at forcing steals, Utah State’s offense is susceptible to turning it over.
This matchup consideration favoring Air Force justifies confidence in the outlook of its defense that helps negate the point that Utah State’s backers will primarily rely on making about Air Force’s overall defensive metrics.
NCAAB Pick: Air Force +16 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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