NCAAB Best Bets for November 19: Marquette to Boil Purdue at Home
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LT Profits
- November 19, 2024
Top NCAAB Pick: Marquette -4.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We are coming off a winning week in NCAA Basketball going 4-2, and we are back for a Tuesday card that features 26 games on the main board. We have found three best bets based mostly on our proprietary model comprised of two totals and one side that we feel all hold value at the current betting odds.
North Dakota Fighting Hawks vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Tuesday, November 19, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Purcell Pavilion
Notre Dame has vastly improved offensively since a year ago and they are capable of scoring 90 points against the terrible North Dakota defense. But while we have no interest in laying nearly 20 points, we do think the Fighting Irish explosion will key a safe Over here.
Dangerous Inside and Out
Notre Dame has gone from ranking 234th in offensive efficiency last season to their current ranking of 50th. They are led by potential All-ACC point guard Markus Burton, who leads the team in both points (17.7 per game) and assists (6.0) while playing alongside shooting guard Braeden Shrewsberry (15.3 PPG). Both Burton and Shrewsberry are sophomores who have made big strides in their second season.
The Irish have gotten an added boost from junior forward Tae Davis, who has also improved since last season to now rank second on the team in scoring at 16.3 points per game. That trio has keyed an offense ranked 16th in the land in eFG% at a fat 60.6%. This is a team difficult to defend for even a good defense, as Notre Dame ranks 25th in 2-point shooting and 47th in 3-point shooting.
They have scored at least 84 points in every game while starting 3-0, and now face the worst defense they have seen so far with North Dakota ranking 263rd in efficiency and 290th in eFG% allowed.
May Not Need Much
North Dakota is 2-1, but one of the wins came against a subdivision school in Dickinson State. They opened their season with an ugly 82-56 road loss at Colorado State, but they did have a decent win last time out 77-71 over a Utah Valley team that is above average in defensive efficiency.
That is significant here as Notre Dame is in that same vicinity defensively ranked 71st in efficiency. And if we are correct about the Irish scoring around 90 points, then a score in the 60s by North Dakota would be good enough to clear this Over. Considering the Hawks just scored 77 on a similar defense, we think the 60s are easily attainable here.
So, in the end, look for Notre Dame to do just about anything they want against a poor defense. And while North Dakota may lose this game by about 20 points, they should still score enough for the over to be the winning bet on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Notre Dame 90 – North Dakota 71
NCAAB Pick: Over 147 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Marquette Golden Eagles
Tuesday, November 19, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum
We have a great matchup between Top 15 teams that are each 4-0 in Milwaukee, and we are laying the moderate spot with homestanding Marquette hosting Purdue.
Turnover Advantage
Marquette returns home after arguably the best win for either of these teams so far, winning on the road by a 78-74 score over a Maryland team ranked 37th overall on Kenpom. That was technically an upset, with the Golden Eagles closing as 2.5-point underdogs, but as has become the norm through four games, they forced 13 turnovers, leading to some easy transition points.
In fact, one major key to this game is Marquette excelling in the turnover department on both ends of the court. They are 13th in the country in turnover percentage forced defensively at 25.3% (national average 18.0%). And although it is not necessary, they may get the benefit of the doubt from the referees with aggressive defense fueled by the energy generated by a raucous home crowd.
At the same time, the Eagles have been great with ball protection offensively, ranking 18th in turnover percentage at just 12.7%.
No Edey, No Second Chances
Yes, Purdue beat an Alabama team ranked 10th on Kenpom 87-78 last time out, but that was at home where Kenpom rates their HCA at +3.8 points. So, it is debatable if that was better than Marquette’s win on the road in Maryland. Plus, this is the Boilermakers’ first road game after an opening 4-game home stand. That could be a concern for a young starting lineup without a single senior.
There are also two major matchup concerns here, again starting with turnovers. Purdue ranks 296th in defensive turnover percentage at 14.5%, which is obviously not ideal against a Marquette team that does not turn the ball over, meaning they can basically run whatever they want offensively.
Secondly, the departure of reigning Player of the Year Zach Edey has had an immediate impact on the offensive rebounding department. With the tallest Purdue starter now in the NBA, they have fallen off to 222nd in offensive rebounding percentage.
In a game where these teams are relatively even in other areas, Marquette’s expected edges in turnovers and second-chance points become huge. Add in the home court and give the points to the Golden Eagles.
Predicted Score: Marquette 83 – Purdue 74
NCAAB Pick: Marquette -4.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
Eastern Illinois Panthers vs. DePaul Blue Demons
Tuesday, November 19, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Wintrust Arena
Similarly to our first pick of the night, we feel that this posted total underestimates just how much one team can dominate this game offensively. We think that DePaul is that team here, with their scoring barrage keying an Over while hosting Eastern Illinois.
Another Soft Opponent
Starting with the surface numbers, DePaul is a perfect 4-0 while averaging a potent 87.8 points per game with their lowest output being 80 points in their season opener. They have excelled from all points of the floor, ranking 27th nationally in 2-point shooting (61.2%) and 45th in 3-point shooting (39.2%). They have also extended possessions by ranking 40th in offensive rebounding percentage at 37.0% (national average 30.0%).
Of course, there is a huge caveat in all that with the Blue Demons yet to face a team ranked higher than 194th on Kenpom, a major reason why they rank only 112th themselves. The good news is that the string of cream puffs continues here with Eastern Illinois ranked 324th overall. Moreover, the Panthers are ranked 278th in defensive efficiency and 329th in eFG% allowed.
Therefore, we see the deceptive success of the DePaul offense continuing for at least another game with 90 points here not out of the question.
Low 60s Enough?
Now, we totally get that Eastern Illinois is 1-3 and 301st in scoring at 69.2 points per game, and if you take away the 97 points in a subdivision win, they are averaging just 60.0 points against Division I foes. But for some context, those three losses were against Illinois (25th on Kenpom), Indiana (31st) and Northwestern (91st but 40th in defensive efficiency).
So, the Panthers may be getting some relief here against a DePaul defense ranked 131st in efficiency. And if DePaul indeed approaches 90 points and with this total available at 143.5, EIU just reaching their 60-point average against three better D1 defenses could be enough to cash this Over.
We can see Eastern Illinois clearing that 60-point threshold facing a lesser defense, while at the same time seeing no answers from the dismal EIU defense against DePaul’s offense. That has is betting the Over in Chicago Tuesday.
Predicted Score: DePaul 88 – Eastern Illinois 64
NCAAB Pick: Over 143.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
