NCAAB Best Bets for November 20: Ride Waves and Rebels to go Over
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LT Profits
- November 20, 2024
NCAAB Pick: Pepperdine vs. UNLV Over 146.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We are now 6-3 in our last nine NCAA Basketball plays after going 2-1 for the third consecutive time last night.
We are back for the Wednesday card that features 22 games on the main board. As usual, we have three best bets based mostly on our proprietary model comprised of two totals and one side that we feel all hold value at the current betting odds.
Siena Saints vs. Xavier Musketeers
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Cintas Center
Those of you that have followed us may be aware that in games where we expect a blowout, we are more apt to bet the Over than ever lay huge spreads. That is because in games where the favorite can run up the score, it could leave the opponent not needing much to cash the Over, and we are doing that again here with Xavier hosting Siena.
Should Dominate Weak Defense
Xavier is off to a 4-0 start and ranked 44th overall on Kenpom. They are also coming off their best win of the year against the best opponent they have faced, beating Wake Forest 75-60. And those 75 points were a season-low against a good Wake defense ranked 72nd in efficiency. The Musketeers should face no such resistance here facing a Siena defense ranked 239th in efficiency.
Thus, we easily see Xavier reaching the mid-80s and even approaching 90 points here. This is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country ranking 13th at a hefty 42.9%, even shooting 38.5% beyond the arc on the stout Wake defense. That makes for a dream matchup here facing a Siena defense ranked 327th defending the three at 40.0%.
Second Chances Help
Siena is 3-1, but the highest-ranked team they have beaten per Kenpom is 153rd-ranked Bryant and the loss was an ugly one last time out 70-60 to 252nd-ranked Albany. That weak schedule thus far makes Siena’s poor defensive peripherals scarier with the huge rise in class in opponent here.
With that said, Xavier also has trouble defending beyond the arc, ranking 324th in 3-point defense at 39.5%. The Saints are not a great 3-point shooting team, but they are above average at 34.6% (national average 32.9%) and have a chance to improve that here.
But one area where Siena does figure to have an edge here is in second chance opportunities. That is because they are 37th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage at 38.3%, compared to Xavier ranking 230th in that same metric at 27.6%.
Thankfully for Xavier, they probably do not need those second chances to dominate offensively in this matchup. At the same time though, more second chances and decent 3-point shooting by Siena should help the Saints score enough points to clear this Over in the mid-140s. Thus, bet the Over at the Cintas Center.
Predicted Score: Xavier 88 – Siena 66
NCAAB Pick: Over 145 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Pepperdine Waves vs. UNLV Runnin’ Rebels
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Thomas & Mack Center
UNLV had looked good offensively thus far this young season while Pepperdine can hang around with their 3-point shooting. This has us backing the Over at the Thomas & Mack Center on Wednesday.
80 Points Again?
This is the fourth game of a season-opening 5-game homestand for UNLV, who are 2-1 thus far. They scored 93 and 80 points in their two wins respectively, but ironically, they may have proven how good they can be offensively in a close 80-74 loss to a Memphis team ranked 37th overall on Kenpom.
Those 74 points came against a Tigers’ defense ranked 39th in efficiency, so it is understandable that the Rebels had their way on offense in the two wins against lesser defenses. Thus, they should have no issues reaching 80 points again against a Pepperdine defense ranked an abysmal 266th in efficiency and 214th in eFG% allowed.
Moreover, UNLV should be able to run their offense as they please as they have been solid in ball protection with a turnover percentage of 15.0% (national average 18.0%). On the flip side, the Waves do not apply pressure while ranking 324th in turnover percentage forced.
Good 3-Point Offense, Bad 3-Point Defense
Pepperdine is only 1-2 with the win coming at home to open the season over a Western Illinois team ranked 327th on Kenpom. They then suffered two double-digit losses on the road with the latest being against the highest-ranked Kenpom team they have faced in UC Irvine (55th). Despite the ability of UNLV to score, they remain 96th overall on Kenpom, so this may be considered a descent in class for the Waves.
One thing that Pepperdine has done well is shoot 3-pointers, which plays into the biggest weakness of the entire UNLV team, which is guarding the perimeter. The Waves are shooting 37.5% beyond the arc (national average 32.9%) while the Runnin’ Rebels are a poor 281st in 3-point defense allowing a 36.0% success rate.
So, while we expect the UNLV offense to key a comfortable win here, we also think Pepperdine should exploit the Rebels’ 3-point defense enough to bet the Over in Vegas.
Predicted Score: UNLV 84 – Pepperdine 72
NCAAB Pick: Over 146.5 (-110) at Bovada
Northern Colorado Bears vs. California Baptist Lancers
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 – 10:30 PM ET at Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center
Sometimes, the best value can be found in under-the-radar matchups. We feel such is the case late Wednesday night, where we see Cal Baptist winning more comfortably than the moderate line suggests at home hosting Northern Colorado.
All Division I Opponents
Cal Baptist is off to a 3-1 start while facing Division I opponents in all four games, which cannot be said for many teams that pad their early schedules with subdivision foes. Moreover, the Lancers are nearly undefeated with the loss being by one point 70-69 to UC Riverside.
What stands out about Baptist is they are averaging 82.5 points per game while playing at one of the slowest paces in the country, ranking 323rd in tempo rating. That is because they are extremely sound fundamentally, ranking third in the nation in offensive turnover percentage at a mere 10.9% (national average 18.0%).
In addition to almost always getting good looks from the floor, the Lancers have also been able to pad leads late with great free throw shooting at 80.4%. That fact gains significance here against a Northern Colorado team that fouls a lot, ranking 289th in FTA/FGA ratio allowed.
No Second Chances
The Bears have already played five games, posting a record of 3-2, but unlike their opponents here, two of the wins have come against subdivision schools. The only Division I win came over South Dakota State, which at 189th on Kenpom ranks 29 spots lower than Cal Baptist. And that lone D1 win was at a neutral site, whereas this is a true road game.
Northern Colorado is around the national average in both offensive and defensive efficiency at an identical 105.6 each way (national average 104.6). But a major flaw that could spell doom here is ranking 325th in offensive rebounding percentage. That inability to generate second chances becomes catamount in a slow-paced game as is expected here.
In summary, we expect Cal Baptist to continue to make the most of their possessions with great ball protection, as well as padding their score from the foul line. At the same time, we feel a lack of second chances for Northern Colorado to be a death blow given the limited possessions expected. Thus, lay the reasonable spot with the Lancers at home.
Predicted Score: Cal Baptist 79 – Northern Colorado 68
NCAAB Pick: Cal Baptist -5.5 (-109) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
