NCAAB Best Bets for November 26: Belmont Bruins to Chew on Lions
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LT Profits
- November 26, 2024
NCAAB Pick: Belmont -2 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We are back for another week of NCAA Basketball action as there are 38 games on the main board for Tuesday. As usual, we have three best bets on the card based mostly on our proprietary model comprised of two totals and one side that we feel all hold value at the current betting odds.
Manhattan Jaspers vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Tuesday, November 26, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at John Paul Jones Arena
While betting Virginia Overs has been a dicey proposition in years past, this is a better shooting team than those plodding squads. Thus, we are betting the Over at a seemingly suppressed number when the Cavaliers host Manhattan in Charlottesville.
Improved Offensively
Virginia has always been known for great defense, but they have been held back in recent seasons by inefficient offense straight out of the Stone Age, Last year was no exception as they finished 200th in offensive efficiency and 262nd in eFG%. This year has been different however as they are above average in eFG% at 52.3% (national average 50.4%) and right around the national average in efficiency at 104.8 points per 100 possessions.
Granted, the Cavaliers took advantage of some cream puffs to begin the season, but they did then score 70 points in an upset of Villanova on a neutral floor. Now they are stepping down to face a Manhattan team ranked 321st in defensive efficiency and 215th in eFG% allowed. Furthermore, Virginia is surprisingly 31st nationally in 3-point shooting at 38.9% and facing a team ranked 284th in 3-point defense.
That makes this a rare matchup where we think Virginia will comfortably score in the 70s, and dare we say, maybe even approach 80!
May Not Need Much
Granted, Manhattan is 275th in offensive efficiency despite a 3-2 record, with the wins coming over a subdivision team and a couple of bottom feeders and Army and Fordham. Still, this posted total is available at 127, which seems to be based more on the Virginia offense of recent seasons than this year’s team.
As we said, we expect Virginia to score in the mid-70s at least here. That would leave the Jaspers to score only in the mid-50s to clear this total. Yes, Virginia has a potentially elite defense and currently ranks 23rd nationally in points against, but that figure of 61.0 points per game would still be good enough for this Over. And since scoring 49 points in their opening game at Maryland, Manhattan has scored at least 78 points in four straight games.
Now granted, Manhattan’s scoring success has come against weak defenses. But if Virginia is as successful offensively as we expect tonight, we expect the Jaspers to score enough to make the Over the winning play here.
Predicted Score: Virginia 78 – Manhattan 60
NCAAB Pick: Over 127 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Loyola Marymount Lions vs. Belmont Bruins
Tuesday, November 26, 2024 – 08:30 PM ET at Hard Rock Hotel Riviera Maya
We see a rather surprising line in the first round of the Cancun Challenge in Mexico on Tuesday. In a matchup of two teams on the opposite side of the shooting spectrum, we are backing Belmont as small favorites over Loyola Marymount.
Can Shoot from Anywhere
The Bruins are 4-1 and nearly undefeated, as the lone loss was by two points 76-74 to a Furman team that is currently 6-0 and the highest-ranked Southland Conference team on Kenpom. Granted, they did not beat much in their four wins, but their performance against Furman was still a good sign and they are not facing much here either, with Loyola Marymount ranked 170th on Kenpom.
Belmont is an excellent shooting team that ranks 20th in the country in eFG% while shooting well from all points on the floor. The Bruins are shooting 37.6% from 3-point range (national average 33.0%) and have the luxury here of facing a Marymount squad ranked 327th in 3-point defense. And they have been almost unstoppable closer to the basket, ranking 20th in 2-point shooting at a sizzling 60.3%.
Yet to Win vs. Division I
The Lions come in at 1-3 with the only win being an opening subdivision triumph over something called Life Pacific. They have since lost three straight games against Division I schools, with the latest being the worst loss of all at home 77-73 to North Dakota (228th Kenpom). They are now stepping up in class while playing on a neutral court.
Perhaps this line is being held down by Marymount exceeding 70 points in three of their four games and Belmont not being good defensively ranking 218th in efficiency. However, we think the scoring has been Fool’s Gold for an LMU team ranked a disgusting 362nd in eFG%, hitting only 26.1% of 3-point shots (291st) and 40.2% if 2-pointers (348th).
That stark disparity in the eFG% has us questioning why this spread is so low, so we are pulling the trigger and betting Belmont as small chalk at the Hard Rock in Riviera Maya.
Predicted Score: Belmont 79 – Loyola Marymount 69
NCAAB Pick: Belmont -2 (-110) at Bookmaker
Southern Utah Thunderbirds vs. UCLA Bruins
Tuesday, November 26, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Pauley Pavilion
We think this posted total looks rather light in a game where both teams figure to have scoring success, so we are supporting the Over when UCLA hosts Southern Utah at historic Pauley Pavilion.
Top 25 on Kenpom
UCLA is currently unranked in the national polls at 5-1, yet they are ranked 25th overall on Kenpom. The one knock is that the loss came in their biggest test 72-64 on a neutral court to New Mexico. Meanwhile, they are 5-0 at home while blowing out teams by an average of +30.6 points per game, but none of those wins came against a team ranked higher than 231st (Idaho State).
That probably makes this Southern Utah opponent the second-best team the Bruins have faced so far. However, we still expect the success of a UCLA offense averaging 81.0 per game here at home to continue against an SUU defense ranked 224th in efficiency. The Thunderbirds do not apply much pressure either, ranking 324th in turnover percentage forced at only 13.8% (national average 17.9%).
Good 3-Point Shooting
Southern Utah has had a very busy early season with seven games played already, and they have been mostly successful, going 6-1 losing only on the road at Loyola-Chicago. Furthermore, the Thunderbirds are averaging 84.0 points per game overall in their own right, making them probably the best offense UCLA has faced all year.
Now, we totally get that the Bruins are ranked 10th in the nation in defensive efficiency, and that efficiency ratings take Strength of Schedule into account. But while SUU probably won’t approach their season average, they do have the 3-point shooting to shoot over even a great defense at 36.6%. And as mentioned, this offense is much better than those of the cupcakes UCLA has feasted on at home.
So, while UCLA still figures to win this game comfortably, we feel that the 3-point success for Southern Utah will be enough for us to bet the Over in this spot.
Predicted Score: UCLA 86 – Southern Utah 66
NCAAB Pick: Over 140.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
